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Monday, June 17, 2024

Armenia of contention: main aspects of escalation

The escalation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has been observed in recent days, carries many threats and challenges for the two countries and the geopolitical arena as a whole. The situation, in which the interests of several countries are involved, among which Russia, the United States, France, Türkiye and Iran in the first place, is more and more like an explosive mixture of contradictions, which is increasingly difficult to keep under control, but it is also extremely dangerous to let it go by itself.

After the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, local conflicts regularly emerged along the demarcation line, reminding that even the bloody war and the loss of more than two hundred settlements by Armenia could not end the conflict between Baku and Yerevan. A notable feature of such escalations was that they all occurred between August and September – many military experts note that due to the specific weather conditions in this region, the most successful time for conducting hostilities falls on the autumn and spring period (at that time same time, the 1992 Karabakh war began in January).

The escalation we are now watching live is very similar to the events of 2020 and to one of the latest conflicts between the Azerbaijani and Armenian military, which took place on the night of September 13, 2022. However, over the past year, several significant events have taken place, each of which had an important impact on the further development of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh and relations between Baku and Yerevan.

In this material, Ascolta analyses the key factors influencing the subsequent escalation of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the risks and threats for all parties directly or indirectly involved in this conflict.

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The escalation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has been observed in recent days, carries many threats and challenges for the two countries and the geopolitical arena as a whole. The situation, in which the interests of several countries are involved, among which Russia, the United States, France, Türkiye and Iran in the first place, is more and more like an explosive mixture of contradictions, which is increasingly difficult to keep under control, but it is also extremely dangerous to let it go by itself.

After the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, local conflicts regularly emerged along the demarcation line, reminding that even the bloody war and the loss of more than two hundred settlements by Armenia could not end the conflict between Baku and Yerevan. A notable feature of such escalations was that they all occurred between August and September – many military experts note that due to the specific weather conditions in this region, the most successful time for conducting hostilities falls on the autumn and spring period (at that time same time, the 1992 Karabakh war began in January).

The escalation we are now watching live is very similar to the events of 2020 and to one of the latest conflicts between the Azerbaijani and Armenian military, which took place on the night of September 13, 2022. However, over the past year, several significant events have taken place, each of which had an important impact on the further development of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh and relations between Baku and Yerevan.

In this material, Ascolta analyses the key factors influencing the subsequent escalation of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and the risks and threats for all parties directly or indirectly involved in this conflict.

This Content Is Only For Subscribers

Please subscribe to unlock this content. Enter your email to get access.
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