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Saturday, July 20, 2024

Russia: weekly report (24.06-30.06)

This report presents key events that had an important impact on political, economic and social processes within Russia.

According to the results of the past week the following tendencies can be defined in the following theses:

  • The topics of international terrorism and the threat of Islamic fundamentalism can again become a point that will lead to the revitalization of contacts between Russia and the Western world, primarily the United States (on the principle of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”). Obviously, Islamic fundamentalism is also a threat to a number of other countries, including Turkiye, China, India, Central Asian and African states. Putin is betting that the events in Dagestan will shift attention to Russia as a factor in the fight against terrorism and Wahhabism, and may also become a starting point for negotiations with the West on a wide range of issues, preventing them from focusing solely on the Ukrainian issue. 
  • Russia continues to work to strengthen its presence in Africa. The talks with the Congolese president demonstrate that Russia’s strategy for the region is not limited to the Sahel states. It is clear that the 80-year-old Sassou Nguesso will step down in the foreseeable future, raising questions about the succession of power. In this case, the Congolese elites are interested in the stability of the transit of power, and have high hopes for assistance from Russia. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of interest in Congo from Russia, as well as possible increase of instability in the region.
  • The topic of the deployment of land-based intermediate-range and short-range missiles is quite sensitive in terms of relations between Russia and NATO. Until recently, there was a moratorium on the deployment of these weapons. However, both sides decided to abandon the moratorium. By actualizing this issue, Putin is creating another threat to the United States’ European partners, while at the same time making it clear that such actions are an additional incentive for negotiations (the renewal of the moratorium could become one of the points of the negotiation process between Russia and NATO).

This digest looks at the following issues that were most relevant to Russia between June 24th and June 30th:

  1. Discussion of the threat of terrorism at the international level against the background of the terrorist act in Dagestan; 
  2. Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Chief Executive of Iran;
  3. Putin’s meeting with the self-proclaimed “head” of the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo;
  4. Russian-Congolese talks;
  5. Video message of the Russian President to the participants of the plenary session of the Eleventh Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus;
  6. Meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council;
  7. Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev’s visit to New York.

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This report presents key events that had an important impact on political, economic and social processes within Russia.

According to the results of the past week the following tendencies can be defined in the following theses:

  • The topics of international terrorism and the threat of Islamic fundamentalism can again become a point that will lead to the revitalization of contacts between Russia and the Western world, primarily the United States (on the principle of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”). Obviously, Islamic fundamentalism is also a threat to a number of other countries, including Turkiye, China, India, Central Asian and African states. Putin is betting that the events in Dagestan will shift attention to Russia as a factor in the fight against terrorism and Wahhabism, and may also become a starting point for negotiations with the West on a wide range of issues, preventing them from focusing solely on the Ukrainian issue. 
  • Russia continues to work to strengthen its presence in Africa. The talks with the Congolese president demonstrate that Russia’s strategy for the region is not limited to the Sahel states. It is clear that the 80-year-old Sassou Nguesso will step down in the foreseeable future, raising questions about the succession of power. In this case, the Congolese elites are interested in the stability of the transit of power, and have high hopes for assistance from Russia. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of interest in Congo from Russia, as well as possible increase of instability in the region.
  • The topic of the deployment of land-based intermediate-range and short-range missiles is quite sensitive in terms of relations between Russia and NATO. Until recently, there was a moratorium on the deployment of these weapons. However, both sides decided to abandon the moratorium. By actualizing this issue, Putin is creating another threat to the United States’ European partners, while at the same time making it clear that such actions are an additional incentive for negotiations (the renewal of the moratorium could become one of the points of the negotiation process between Russia and NATO).

This digest looks at the following issues that were most relevant to Russia between June 24th and June 30th:

  1. Discussion of the threat of terrorism at the international level against the background of the terrorist act in Dagestan; 
  2. Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Chief Executive of Iran;
  3. Putin’s meeting with the self-proclaimed “head” of the temporarily occupied part of the Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo;
  4. Russian-Congolese talks;
  5. Video message of the Russian President to the participants of the plenary session of the Eleventh Forum of Regions of Russia and Belarus;
  6. Meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council;
  7. Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev’s visit to New York.

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