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Thursday, February 29, 2024

Russia: Weekly Report (21.08 – 27.08)

This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • One of the most critical events for Russia last week was the BRICS summit, held in South Africa on August 22-24. Important decisions on the expansion of the organisation, the implementation of a common policy on de-dollarisation and sanctions pressure have demonstrated that the ambitions of the BRICS members should not be underestimated. The organisation’s weight in the geopolitical arena can now be considered very stable. At the same time, Russia’s role in BRICS remains secondary.
  • Serious reshuffles in top political positions may take place in Russia soon. In particular, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, can also receive the ministerial portfolio. At the same time, the head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, may get a higher position in Moscow. In any case, August became a time for demonstration of their abilities for possible applicants for promotion, which they could demonstrate during the negotiation processes at the international level.
  • Russia is increasingly demonstrating ambitions to create a separate centre of global influence with an eye on the Global South. Russian and Kazakhstani grain can block the volume of supplies that previously came from Ukraine. Russia also proposes to abandon pricing through the Chicago Grain Exchange, offering its rules of the game, which now seem more flexible and acceptable to all players. At the same time, Russia’s key partner in this matter, Turkie, fears it may become dependent on Moscow, so it would like to diversify risks. That is why she is lobbying to re-open the “Ukrainian” way. Soon, there will be a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Turkey, during which the fate of the “grain deal” will be decided.

This digest examines the following issues that were most relevant for Russia during 21–27 of August:

1. XV BRICS summit in South Africa (Russian aspect);

2. Putin’s meetings with the “heads” of the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine;

3. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane crash;

4. The mission of Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, in Turkiye;

5. Budapest meeting on the “grain deal”;

6. Vladimir Putin’s refusal to participate in the G20 summit in New Delhi.

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This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • One of the most critical events for Russia last week was the BRICS summit, held in South Africa on August 22-24. Important decisions on the expansion of the organisation, the implementation of a common policy on de-dollarisation and sanctions pressure have demonstrated that the ambitions of the BRICS members should not be underestimated. The organisation’s weight in the geopolitical arena can now be considered very stable. At the same time, Russia’s role in BRICS remains secondary.
  • Serious reshuffles in top political positions may take place in Russia soon. In particular, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, can also receive the ministerial portfolio. At the same time, the head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, may get a higher position in Moscow. In any case, August became a time for demonstration of their abilities for possible applicants for promotion, which they could demonstrate during the negotiation processes at the international level.
  • Russia is increasingly demonstrating ambitions to create a separate centre of global influence with an eye on the Global South. Russian and Kazakhstani grain can block the volume of supplies that previously came from Ukraine. Russia also proposes to abandon pricing through the Chicago Grain Exchange, offering its rules of the game, which now seem more flexible and acceptable to all players. At the same time, Russia’s key partner in this matter, Turkie, fears it may become dependent on Moscow, so it would like to diversify risks. That is why she is lobbying to re-open the “Ukrainian” way. Soon, there will be a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Turkey, during which the fate of the “grain deal” will be decided.

This digest examines the following issues that were most relevant for Russia during 21–27 of August:

1. XV BRICS summit in South Africa (Russian aspect);

2. Putin’s meetings with the “heads” of the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine;

3. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane crash;

4. The mission of Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, in Turkiye;

5. Budapest meeting on the “grain deal”;

6. Vladimir Putin’s refusal to participate in the G20 summit in New Delhi.

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Please subscribe to unlock this content. Enter your email to get access.
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