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Russia: Weekly Report (10.07 – 16.07)

This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Russia officially announces the temporary termination of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, threatening all Ukrainian grain exports. First, such a step is a severe blast to bilateral relations between Putin and Erdogan since the Turkish president was considered the main beneficiary of such an export scheme. Soon, we should expect serious consequences, reflected in diplomatic relations between Moscow and Ankara.
  • There is more and more information that active negotiations are underway between Moscow and Washington on several global issues. In particular, we are talking about Ukraine. Of course, in such a situation, one should not expect a sharp cessation of hostilities or solutions to the most pressing issues. Instead, one can be said that for both countries, the issue of Ukraine is as important as it is a dead end, making them look for possible compromises and make concessions.
  • Another attack on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge shows that parties are interested in continuing the conflict even with the theoretical existence of certain agreements and an attempt to de-escalate. Of course, the coincidence of the attack on the bridge with the end date of the “grain deal” may also indicate a targeted provocation. Still, a few hours after the attack, one gets the impression that its consequences will be more global and long-lasting.

This report describes the topics being the most relevant for Russia during 10-16 July:

1. The “Grain Deal” situation

2. Relocation of the Wagner PMC to Belarus;

3. Putin’s comments for the media;

4. Putin’s meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation;

5. Peskov’s statement about Putin’s meeting with Prigozhin;

6. Visit of the delegation of the Federation Council to China;

7. Visit of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Igor Krasnov to Beijing;

8. Changes in the Russian military leadership;

9. Murder of Stanislav Rzhitsky in Krasnodar;

10. The case of the assassination attempt on Margarita Simonyan and Ksenia Sobchak;

11. Telephone conversation between Sergei Naryshkin and William Burns;

12. Detention of former FSB colonel Maksim Polyakov;

13. Attack on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge.

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This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Russia officially announces the temporary termination of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, threatening all Ukrainian grain exports. First, such a step is a severe blast to bilateral relations between Putin and Erdogan since the Turkish president was considered the main beneficiary of such an export scheme. Soon, we should expect serious consequences, reflected in diplomatic relations between Moscow and Ankara.
  • There is more and more information that active negotiations are underway between Moscow and Washington on several global issues. In particular, we are talking about Ukraine. Of course, in such a situation, one should not expect a sharp cessation of hostilities or solutions to the most pressing issues. Instead, one can be said that for both countries, the issue of Ukraine is as important as it is a dead end, making them look for possible compromises and make concessions.
  • Another attack on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge shows that parties are interested in continuing the conflict even with the theoretical existence of certain agreements and an attempt to de-escalate. Of course, the coincidence of the attack on the bridge with the end date of the “grain deal” may also indicate a targeted provocation. Still, a few hours after the attack, one gets the impression that its consequences will be more global and long-lasting.

This report describes the topics being the most relevant for Russia during 10-16 July:

1. The “Grain Deal” situation

2. Relocation of the Wagner PMC to Belarus;

3. Putin’s comments for the media;

4. Putin’s meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation;

5. Peskov’s statement about Putin’s meeting with Prigozhin;

6. Visit of the delegation of the Federation Council to China;

7. Visit of the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation Igor Krasnov to Beijing;

8. Changes in the Russian military leadership;

9. Murder of Stanislav Rzhitsky in Krasnodar;

10. The case of the assassination attempt on Margarita Simonyan and Ksenia Sobchak;

11. Telephone conversation between Sergei Naryshkin and William Burns;

12. Detention of former FSB colonel Maksim Polyakov;

13. Attack on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge.

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