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Thursday, May 2, 2024

Russia: Weekly Report (25.03–31.03)

This report describes the key events which significantly influenced Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Assessing the past week’s results, we determine the following trends:

  • Of course, the main political topic in the Russian information space last week remained the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall. In addition to several news stories related to the progress of the investigation into the tragedy, as well as the reaction of the international community, an equally important track was the attempt by Kremlin representatives to accuse Ukraine of involvement in organising the terrorist attack. Apparently, in this context, Russia’s main goal can be traced – through the investigation (perhaps even through the fabrication of evidence and the investigation itself) to show that any support for Ukraine at this time is “work to assist terrorists,” which can find a response and be replicated in the political environment of individual European parties on the eve of the elections to the European Parliament, and will also serve as an element of pressure on the current governments of the EU countries. In essence, Russia is preparing a platform for negotiations with the United States and NATO, strengthening its positions and base of arguments (previously, accusations of terrorist acts and assistance to terrorism were addressed to Russia, but now it is trying to play with the West using its methods).
  • The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation is following the initially stated version of the investigation while actively tracking the “Tajik” and “Ukrainian” trail. At the same time, active actions began in the Tajik ethnic environment and other environments of immigrants from Central Asia (in particular, among the Uzbeks and Kyrgyz). Searches and other investigative actions in the Ukrainian environment may be next, especially among migrants who arrived before the war and in the first months of the war.
  • As predicted earlier, Putin began forming a new entourage from among the security forces who were young and personally devoted to Putin. Prosecutor General Krasnov is one of these individuals. The fact that Putin decided to speak at the board of the General Prosecutor’s Office is a sign both for Krasnov (the president’s special trust) and for society (the prosecutor’s office in Russia will work at double speed, issuing a large number of high-profile cases and charges.

This digest covers the following topics, which were the most relevant for Russia between the 25th and the 31st of March: 

1. Preliminary results of the investigation into the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall;

2. Meeting on measures taken after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall;

3. Extended meeting of the Prosecutor General’s Office board;

4. Telephone conversations of Vladimir Putin with leaders of African countries;

5. Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council;

6. Interview with Sergei Lavrov for Izvestia.

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This report describes the key events which significantly influenced Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Assessing the past week’s results, we determine the following trends:

  • Of course, the main political topic in the Russian information space last week remained the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall. In addition to several news stories related to the progress of the investigation into the tragedy, as well as the reaction of the international community, an equally important track was the attempt by Kremlin representatives to accuse Ukraine of involvement in organising the terrorist attack. Apparently, in this context, Russia’s main goal can be traced – through the investigation (perhaps even through the fabrication of evidence and the investigation itself) to show that any support for Ukraine at this time is “work to assist terrorists,” which can find a response and be replicated in the political environment of individual European parties on the eve of the elections to the European Parliament, and will also serve as an element of pressure on the current governments of the EU countries. In essence, Russia is preparing a platform for negotiations with the United States and NATO, strengthening its positions and base of arguments (previously, accusations of terrorist acts and assistance to terrorism were addressed to Russia, but now it is trying to play with the West using its methods).
  • The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation is following the initially stated version of the investigation while actively tracking the “Tajik” and “Ukrainian” trail. At the same time, active actions began in the Tajik ethnic environment and other environments of immigrants from Central Asia (in particular, among the Uzbeks and Kyrgyz). Searches and other investigative actions in the Ukrainian environment may be next, especially among migrants who arrived before the war and in the first months of the war.
  • As predicted earlier, Putin began forming a new entourage from among the security forces who were young and personally devoted to Putin. Prosecutor General Krasnov is one of these individuals. The fact that Putin decided to speak at the board of the General Prosecutor’s Office is a sign both for Krasnov (the president’s special trust) and for society (the prosecutor’s office in Russia will work at double speed, issuing a large number of high-profile cases and charges.

This digest covers the following topics, which were the most relevant for Russia between the 25th and the 31st of March: 

1. Preliminary results of the investigation into the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall;

2. Meeting on measures taken after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall;

3. Extended meeting of the Prosecutor General’s Office board;

4. Telephone conversations of Vladimir Putin with leaders of African countries;

5. Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council;

6. Interview with Sergei Lavrov for Izvestia.

This Content Is Only For Subscribers

Please subscribe to unlock this content. Enter your email to get access.
Your email address is 100% safe from spam!

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