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Saturday, July 20, 2024

Russia: Weekly Report (22.04 – 28.04)

This report describes the key events which significantly influenced Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Assessing the past week’s results, we determine the following trends:

  • The case of Timur Ivanov became one of Russia’s main political events last week and caused a real stir in the political life of Russia. Now, questions arise for several people in the immediate circle of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to available data, First Deputy Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, Shoigu’s closest ally for the past 20 years, may be dismissed. The searches took place at the office of Deputy Minister Tatyana Shevtsova, who is responsible for finance at the ministry. Shoigu’s very continued tenure as Minister of Defense is in question.
  • Aliyev’s visit to Moscow finally consolidates the new system of relations between Moscow and Baku. For Putin and Aliyev, 2024 is an important year: both went through presidential elections and received a mandate for the next presidential terms. In addition, both Azerbaijan and Russia have recently been building a system of close relations with China (Xi Jinping’s Special Representative for European Affairs, Wu Hongbo, visited Baku on March 8, and Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, visited Moscow on March 3).
  • Despite the complexity of the situation and the sharp increase in protest activity in the flood-affected regions of Russia, neither Ukraine nor Western countries tried to take advantage of the opportunity to further destabilise the situation in order to divert Russia’s attention to internal problems. In many ways, this demonstrates the inability of the information warfare mechanism to quickly respond to such situations and implement situational strategies. In fact, despite the huge number of strategic centres and analytical structures, Russia still remains poorly studied and incomprehensible to most of its opponents.

This report highlights the most relevant topics for Russia between the 22nd and the 28th of April, namely:

  1. The case of Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov;
  2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev;
  3. 50th anniversary of the start of construction of the Baikal-Amur Mainline;
  4. Meeting on liquidation of flood consequences;
  5. Plenary meeting of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs;
  6. Meeting of the Council of Legislators;
  7. Meeting on economic issues;
  8. Russian veto on the UN Resolution on preventing an arms race in space.

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This report describes the key events which significantly influenced Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Assessing the past week’s results, we determine the following trends:

  • The case of Timur Ivanov became one of Russia’s main political events last week and caused a real stir in the political life of Russia. Now, questions arise for several people in the immediate circle of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. According to available data, First Deputy Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, Shoigu’s closest ally for the past 20 years, may be dismissed. The searches took place at the office of Deputy Minister Tatyana Shevtsova, who is responsible for finance at the ministry. Shoigu’s very continued tenure as Minister of Defense is in question.
  • Aliyev’s visit to Moscow finally consolidates the new system of relations between Moscow and Baku. For Putin and Aliyev, 2024 is an important year: both went through presidential elections and received a mandate for the next presidential terms. In addition, both Azerbaijan and Russia have recently been building a system of close relations with China (Xi Jinping’s Special Representative for European Affairs, Wu Hongbo, visited Baku on March 8, and Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hui, visited Moscow on March 3).
  • Despite the complexity of the situation and the sharp increase in protest activity in the flood-affected regions of Russia, neither Ukraine nor Western countries tried to take advantage of the opportunity to further destabilise the situation in order to divert Russia’s attention to internal problems. In many ways, this demonstrates the inability of the information warfare mechanism to quickly respond to such situations and implement situational strategies. In fact, despite the huge number of strategic centres and analytical structures, Russia still remains poorly studied and incomprehensible to most of its opponents.

This report highlights the most relevant topics for Russia between the 22nd and the 28th of April, namely:

  1. The case of Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov;
  2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev;
  3. 50th anniversary of the start of construction of the Baikal-Amur Mainline;
  4. Meeting on liquidation of flood consequences;
  5. Plenary meeting of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs;
  6. Meeting of the Council of Legislators;
  7. Meeting on economic issues;
  8. Russian veto on the UN Resolution on preventing an arms race in space.

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