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Sunday, April 28, 2024

Russia: Weekly Report (18.03–24.03)

This report describes the key events which significantly influenced Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Assessing the past week’s results, we determine the following trends:

  • The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, in terms of the number of deaths, became the biggest terrorist attack in the history of Russia. He showed that Russia, having focused on resolving the “Ukrainian issue,” slept through other vital issues – in particular, a new possible surge of Islamic fundamentalism in the country. Understandably, the Russian leadership wants to link what happened to Ukraine, among other things. So far, the only clues to this are two points – the detained terrorists were moving through the territory of the Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine (Putin said that the terrorists would have been provided with a window at the border), as well as an advertisement published on the website of the Ukrainian Embassy in Tajikistan about the recruitment of volunteers for a foreign legion. There is no other data linking Ukraine to the terrorist attack.
  • The main point when assessing the results of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation should be the understanding that Putin does not care what the West thinks about the polls. He worked for results that he could present to the Global South, and there, they value a strong leader who knows how to unite his people. In this sense, all statements about violations, the undemocratic nature of the process, falsifications, and lack of competition have absolutely no meaning. For Putin, the main thing is to be recognised by China, India, Brazil, Türkiye and other significant players in the South. He achieved his goal.
  • According to available data, Putin is preparing personnel changes in the FSB, in particular, replacing the current chief, Alexander Bortnikov, with either General Dmitry Shalkov (the current head of the control and audit department of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, in the past – deputy director of the FSB) or with General Sergei Korolev, Bortnikov’s current first deputy. The appointment of Yuri Kovalchuk’s son, Boris, as deputy head of the control and audit department of the AP, suggests that Shalkov may soon be transferred to a new position; it is possible that in the FSB.

This digest covers the following topics, which were the most relevant for Russia between the 18th and the 24th of March:

  1. Terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall
  2. The reaction of the global community to the results of the Russian presidential elections 
  3. Concert to mark the tenth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea
  4. Meeting of the board of the FSB of Russia
  5. Meeting with leaders of parliamentary factions
  6. Address to citizens following the results of the presidential elections in Russia
  7. Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council

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This report describes the key events which significantly influenced Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Assessing the past week’s results, we determine the following trends:

  • The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, in terms of the number of deaths, became the biggest terrorist attack in the history of Russia. He showed that Russia, having focused on resolving the “Ukrainian issue,” slept through other vital issues – in particular, a new possible surge of Islamic fundamentalism in the country. Understandably, the Russian leadership wants to link what happened to Ukraine, among other things. So far, the only clues to this are two points – the detained terrorists were moving through the territory of the Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine (Putin said that the terrorists would have been provided with a window at the border), as well as an advertisement published on the website of the Ukrainian Embassy in Tajikistan about the recruitment of volunteers for a foreign legion. There is no other data linking Ukraine to the terrorist attack.
  • The main point when assessing the results of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation should be the understanding that Putin does not care what the West thinks about the polls. He worked for results that he could present to the Global South, and there, they value a strong leader who knows how to unite his people. In this sense, all statements about violations, the undemocratic nature of the process, falsifications, and lack of competition have absolutely no meaning. For Putin, the main thing is to be recognised by China, India, Brazil, Türkiye and other significant players in the South. He achieved his goal.
  • According to available data, Putin is preparing personnel changes in the FSB, in particular, replacing the current chief, Alexander Bortnikov, with either General Dmitry Shalkov (the current head of the control and audit department of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, in the past – deputy director of the FSB) or with General Sergei Korolev, Bortnikov’s current first deputy. The appointment of Yuri Kovalchuk’s son, Boris, as deputy head of the control and audit department of the AP, suggests that Shalkov may soon be transferred to a new position; it is possible that in the FSB.

This digest covers the following topics, which were the most relevant for Russia between the 18th and the 24th of March:

  1. Terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall
  2. The reaction of the global community to the results of the Russian presidential elections 
  3. Concert to mark the tenth anniversary of the annexation of Crimea
  4. Meeting of the board of the FSB of Russia
  5. Meeting with leaders of parliamentary factions
  6. Address to citizens following the results of the presidential elections in Russia
  7. Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council

This Content Is Only For Subscribers

Please subscribe to unlock this content. Enter your email to get access.
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