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Russia: weekly report (10.06-16.06)

This report presents key events that had an important impact on political, economic and social processes inside Russia.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be identified in the following thesis:

  • In the run-up to the “Peace Summit,” Vladimir Putin held a number of meetings and phone calls with individual leaders of the “Global South,” resulting in a strengthened unified position both with respect to attempts to form peace proposals on Ukraine and to build a unified position with respect to the West. Undoubtedly, this approach once again demonstrated the existence of a deep rift between the West and the East, and also demonstrated the readiness of the Global South to build further confrontation with Washington and Brussels. 
  • Putin’s interest in the situation in the war zone is understandable: for him, the success or failure of Russian troops is a factor in weakening or strengthening the negotiating position in the upcoming discussion of the conditions for ending the war. What is important in this situation is that Russia is preparing for a possible counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces, and Putin needs to understand the degree of readiness of certain parts of the front and the possibilities for repulsing the actions of the Ukrainian command. It is also important for him to understand the possible actions of the AFU under the conditions of new equipment and mobilization of human resources. Not by chance, according to the latest data, Putin has strengthened the presence of Russian troops in the Ukrainian direction by 250 – 300 thousand people, as well as forced the defense sector to work at the limit of its capabilities. 
  • In fact, by voicing new conditions for the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, Putin has decided to declare a new ultimatum to the West. He is raising the stakes in the diplomatic game. If earlier Putin offered as a condition for peace talks Ukraine’s agreement to lose sovereignty over Crimea and the occupied territories, now he insists on the withdrawal of the AFU beyond the administrative line of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. In parallel, Putin recalled that in March 2022 it was only about recognizing the independence of the so-called “DNR” and “LNR”, as well as guarantees of a land corridor to Crimea. Thus, he makes it clear that Ukraine, by dragging out the negotiation process, will face a constant increase in the stakes from Russia. 

This digest examines the following issues that were most relevant to Russia between June 10th and June 16th:

1. Vladimir Putin’s phone conversation with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva;

2. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Foreign Minister Turkiye Hakan Fidan;

3. Meeting with the Minister of Defense, Chief of the General Staff and commanders of troops of military districts;

4. telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko;

5. Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Head of the Executive Branch of the Islamic Republic of Iran;

6. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry;

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This report presents key events that had an important impact on political, economic and social processes inside Russia.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be identified in the following thesis:

  • In the run-up to the “Peace Summit,” Vladimir Putin held a number of meetings and phone calls with individual leaders of the “Global South,” resulting in a strengthened unified position both with respect to attempts to form peace proposals on Ukraine and to build a unified position with respect to the West. Undoubtedly, this approach once again demonstrated the existence of a deep rift between the West and the East, and also demonstrated the readiness of the Global South to build further confrontation with Washington and Brussels. 
  • Putin’s interest in the situation in the war zone is understandable: for him, the success or failure of Russian troops is a factor in weakening or strengthening the negotiating position in the upcoming discussion of the conditions for ending the war. What is important in this situation is that Russia is preparing for a possible counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces, and Putin needs to understand the degree of readiness of certain parts of the front and the possibilities for repulsing the actions of the Ukrainian command. It is also important for him to understand the possible actions of the AFU under the conditions of new equipment and mobilization of human resources. Not by chance, according to the latest data, Putin has strengthened the presence of Russian troops in the Ukrainian direction by 250 – 300 thousand people, as well as forced the defense sector to work at the limit of its capabilities. 
  • In fact, by voicing new conditions for the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, Putin has decided to declare a new ultimatum to the West. He is raising the stakes in the diplomatic game. If earlier Putin offered as a condition for peace talks Ukraine’s agreement to lose sovereignty over Crimea and the occupied territories, now he insists on the withdrawal of the AFU beyond the administrative line of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. In parallel, Putin recalled that in March 2022 it was only about recognizing the independence of the so-called “DNR” and “LNR”, as well as guarantees of a land corridor to Crimea. Thus, he makes it clear that Ukraine, by dragging out the negotiation process, will face a constant increase in the stakes from Russia. 

This digest examines the following issues that were most relevant to Russia between June 10th and June 16th:

1. Vladimir Putin’s phone conversation with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva;

2. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Foreign Minister Turkiye Hakan Fidan;

3. Meeting with the Minister of Defense, Chief of the General Staff and commanders of troops of military districts;

4. telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko;

5. Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Head of the Executive Branch of the Islamic Republic of Iran;

6. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry;

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