Russia: weekly report (03.06-09.06)

1. Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council

On Monday, June 3, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with permanent members of the Russian Security Council via videoconference. According to official data, the main issue discussed at the meeting was information security and necessary measures to improve it. The main speaker on this topic was Minister of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media Maksut Shadaev. 

The meeting was also attended by Chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, Head of the Presidential Administration Anton Vaino, Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu, Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov, Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev, Director of the Federal Security Service Alexander Bortnikov, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin, Special Presidential Representative for Environmental Protection, Ecology and Transport Sergei Ivanov

Summary/Predictions:

The topic of information security comes to the fore from time to time, as it is very important for Russia to protect its own databases, as well as to create a reliable defense against information influence from the West. Information security in the regime’s understanding is the ability to control media space, information flows, and political processes, protecting them from external influence. In this regard, Minister Maksut Shadaev has an important role to play: to supplement the opportunities provided by the security forces with modern content, cunning and non-standard moves, tricks that would allow the information security system to turn into a unified system of control over information fields.

2. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Andrei Turchak

On Tuesday, June 4, Vladimir Putin held a working meeting with former First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Andrei Turchak in the videoconference format. During the meeting, the Russian president will offer Andrei Turchak to take the position of acting head of the Altai Republic.  

Key talking points:

• Putin: “You had a good experience of working in the region in the executive authorities, in Pskov – with a good result. For the past few years you have been working in the Federation Council, also a very important job, and in the United Russia party. But I would like to ask you to return to the executive branch and head one of the regions. This is a promising region, especially today, given the rapid development and our plans to develop the tourism sector – I mean the Altai Republic. You, working in the Federation Council, perfectly understand the situation in the regions of the Russian Federation, and in this one too”.

• Turchak: “I would like to say thank you for your trust. Of course, I will do my best not to let you down. The Altai Republic is indeed a unique land with great potential. Wonderful and hardworking people live there. I will do my best to gain their support during the election campaign and will do my best to really, truly unlock the rich potential of the Altai Republic, this unique Russian region. I thank you for your trust.

• Turchak: “And I would like to ask you – after I understand the situation in the republic, dive into all the issues, determine priorities – for a personal meeting to make you a detailed, informative report on the situation.”

Results/Predictions:

Andrei Turchak, considered Putin’s “favorite,” could not withstand the apparatus battles and lost to his arch-opponent Sergei Kirienko. Obviously, in this situation we are talking about an honorable exile to Altai. Most likely, the political management of the United Russia party will be changed, and many expect to see some sort of protege of the Kovalchuk group and Kirienko in Turchak’s place. As recently as yesterday, Turchak was predicted to have a great future and was almost a candidate for succession, but today Turchak is already being written off (at least temporarily) to the political dustbin. At the same time, we are talking about the decreasing influence on the processes on the part of Chemezov’s group and Tokarev personally, who recommended Turchak to Putin as a supermanager. 

3. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with members of the Government

On Tuesday, June 4, Vladimir Putin held an online meeting with members of the Russian Government. The main topic of the meeting was the development of automobile tourism in Russia. Also during the meeting, they discussed the progress of the sowing campaign, as due to recent frosts, according to Putin, more than one percent of the crop died.

Key points: 

• Oksana Lut (Agriculture Minister): “This season, due to difficult weather conditions, there is a slight lag in sowing rates – we are about 2-3 days behind, but by June 10 we should finish all sowing. In general, the total sowing area for this year, including winter and spring crops, has been increased by 300 thousand hectares, and it will amount to 84.5 million hectares. In a week, some regions of the South and North Caucasus are already planning to start harvesting the new crop”.

• Lut: “As you noted, this year was not an easy one. There were really unfavorable weather conditions in 21 regions. Frosts affected Central Russia, the Volga region, the South and the Luhansk People’s Republic and led to the death of more than a million hectares of crops – about 1.2 percent of the total area. I should note that at present the overwhelming part of this area has already been reseeded. About 700 thousand more hectares have been damaged, of which 600 thousand are grain crops, on these areas there will be a decrease in yields. Also more than 13.5 thousand hectares of perennial fruit and berry plantations were damaged”.

• Lut: “As a result of this situation, 11 regions at their level have introduced an emergency regime, given the scale of the damage. For a number of them the Ministry of Agriculture has initiated the issue of introducing the federal emergency regime”.

• Lut: “Despite all the difficulties I have outlined, we maintain our expectations for the grain harvest at 132 million tons and oilseeds at 28 million tons. This volume will be sufficient to fully satisfy the domestic market and maintain a significant export potential for both raw materials and processed products. I would like to note separately that grain exports in the coming season are expected at the level of 60 million tons”.

• Lut: “We have already started working with our partner countries, with friendly countries to supply additional volumes of apples. We started to do it in advance so that the situation with frosts would not affect the price in any way. Accordingly, we have current countries – Azerbaijan, Belarus, Serbia, from which we supply volumes [of apples]. We can slightly increase our supply from them; also, we have Iran and Turkey in reserve, which produce a large volume of apples. We have started discussing with our colleagues additional supplies of apples to Russia in the appropriate season”.

• Igor Artamonov (Governor of the Lipetsk Region): “The agro-industrial complex of the Lipetsk region is one of the leaders in many areas: investments in agriculture are actively attracted, production volumes are growing. In 2023 we are among the top 10 exporting regions and among the top 5 fruit and berry producing regions”.

• Artamonov: “This year the total sowing area is 1.4 million hectares, including 340 thousand hectares of winter crops. The spring sowing went normally, but, of course, the May frosts led to the death of crops on the area of 44 thousand hectares, 3.1 thousand hectares of which are perennial fruit and berry plantations. It was decided to introduce a state of emergency of regional level”.

• Artamonov: “The situation is more serious in fruit and berry crops, orchards and berries have suffered significantly. Last year we gathered a record harvest for the region – more than 80 thousand tons, and this year we plan a significant increase, because in recent years more than 20 billion investments have been attracted to the industry”.

• Artamonov: “But, unfortunately, there is a clear understanding that we have lost more than 60 percent of the harvest. According to preliminary estimates, the total amount of damage actually incurred by the region as a result of the current state of emergency is 3 billion rubles, with 2 billion for fruit and berry plantations”.

• Sergei Kravtsov (Minister of Education): “I will start with the Unified State Exam. Eight exams have already taken place, including today’s exams in social studies and physics. In general, 700 thousand graduates are taking the exam in all 89 regions of our country, including 77 countries abroad.

• Kravtsov: “It is important to say about the content of the exam. We have eliminated the test part, added tasks on the application of subject knowledge, on reasoning, argumentation, logic. In the history part, much attention was paid to the development of Russian statehood, outstanding people, examples of military heroism. Taking into account the new history textbook for grades 10-11, this year’s exam materials include facts from the recent history of our country, including those related to the special military operation.

• Kravtsov: “In your Address, you spoke about making the content of the exams consistent with school programs. Next year this issue will be resolved, because we have introduced a unified content of education, unified programs. Previously, in fact, each school worked according to its own program. When we introduce unified programs for schools, we will correlate them with the results that we ask at the unified state examination, and next year this issue will be resolved”.

• Maxim Reshetnikov (Minister of Economic Development): “The demand for domestic tourism continues to grow. Last year, residents and guests of the country made 83 million trips – this is 20 percent more than the pre-consensus figure. This year we expect more than 90 million trips”.

• Reshetnikov: “Now the summer tourist season has started – it is the best time for automobile tourism. It occupies an increasing share in traveling around the country. According to surveys, 40 percent of Russians have traveled by car in the last five years, and last year, according to statistics, 26 million tourist trips were made by car. By 2030, we expect this figure to double.”

• Reshetnikov: “The Concept of development of automobile tourism approved by the Government, which was developed on your instruction, is aimed at this. It is based on the concept of “automobile route”, which links together roads, roadside service, cafes and restaurants, recreation areas with camping, glamping, hotels, viewpoints, museums, which work at a convenient time for the tourist, national parks, where conditions for recreation with children are created, communication and Internet are provided and all the amenities on the way of the tourist”.

• Denis Manturov (First Deputy Prime Minister): “Several Russian manufacturers are now working on the development of the model range. First of all, this is Volgabus: at the beginning of the year it has already certified a model – called Serpantine – on compressed natural gas, 44 seats. Under the program of special treasury loans, 64 buses have already been purchased in February, in particular by the Leningrad Region. Volgabus also has “Marathons” with certification: 50 seats, diesel and gas fueled”.

• Manturov: “Sollers. As part of the implementation of the SPIK [special investment contract], you remember, we produced Mazda in the Far East, and now they are replacing this production with tour buses. In the third quarter of this year, [production of] buses with a capacity of 53-55 people, 12-meter and 9-meter buses was [set up]. The project will be realized in cooperation with the eastern partner.”

• Manturov: “GAZ Group has its own large-class Cruise bus: from 48 to 51 people. Under the brand name LIAZ expects to offer its bus to the market this August. The forecast sales volume this year is 200 units. At the first stage, the bus will also be realized with Eastern partners”.

• Manturov: “The same is true for GAZ Group’s line of other smaller models, so we are ready to work out this program together with the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Transport in terms of routes and GTLK, the leasing company, to ensure demand for this type of products with gradual localization”.

Outcomes/Predictions:

A working meeting designed to demonstrate once again that the president has his finger on the pulse of economic issues and problems. In fact, Putin tries to participate in those meetings that can definitely add value to his ratings: agriculture and the development of the highway network are really on the rise in Russia today, and it is to be credited that despite the war and sanctions, these topics are showing growth. Thus, Putin needs to “lead” the topic in time, to “ride the wave”, transforming it into personal ratings.

4. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with heads of international news agencies

On Wednesday, June 5, Vladimir Putin met with representatives of the world’s leading news agencies from Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the United States, Uzbekistan, China, Iran, Great Britain, Turkey, Korea, Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and France in St. Petersburg. The Russian president began his conversation with journalists in a rather positive tone, trying to move away from the standard framework: “I suggest that we have an exchange of opinions rather than an evening of questions and answers. It would be more interesting that way. And I would also be interested to hear your opinion on the issues you are interested in”. The main emphasis was placed on foreign policy relations and global aspects.

Key theses from Putin’s answers to the questions of the meeting participants: 

• “Yes, the President of Belarus and I have known each other for a long time. Indeed, our relations have developed differently at different times. But since our relations are based on the fundamental interests of both peoples (Russian and Belarusian), we have always been able to find solutions to even the most complex issues that seem to have no simple answers. That is why we were initially engaged and now continue to work on the construction of the Union State, we are doing well. We do it based on the mood of our peoples, we do it very calmly, carefully.”

• “I have already said: everyone took my statement about Mr. Biden with sneers and saw in it some hidden even ‘attack’ on President Biden. Indeed, he is a politician of the old school, and what he did not like, he then, to a certain extent, began to attack me. That’s what I thought would happen. So I’m right, he is predictable. It only confirms our thoughts on what I was talking about.”

• “If that’s the case, basically we don’t care. Because also Mr. Trump, who was accused almost of spying for Russia… As we understand that this is nonsense, just nonsense of some kind, it was just an element of internal political struggle between Democrats and Republicans. Ridiculous accusations towards Trump. That’s what we always perceived as an element of internal political struggle in the United States itself. Then it was confirmed by all sorts of investigations inside the United States. There was never any special ties between us and Mr. Trump.”

• “I have to say, pleasant or not, but their supposed leadership in the sphere of democracy is also being burned right on the root. Because all over the world it is obvious that prosecuting Trump, especially in a court of law, on charges that have developed based on events that took place years ago, without direct evidence, is simply using the judicial system in the course of a domestic political struggle, straight up. This is obvious to us in Russia. I’m sure it’s obvious to the UK as well, everyone around the world thinks so. And the main thing is that the United States itself thinks so. Because after the famous court decision, where the jury gave a verdict of ‘guilty’, as we all know, Mr. Trump’s rating rose, I think, by 6 percent immediately, and the donations immediately increased to his campaign headquarters.”

• “But I think you will agree with me that nobody in the United States is interested in Ukraine. They are interested in the greatness of the United States, which is fighting not for Ukraine and not for the Ukrainian people, but for its greatness and its leadership in the world, and in no case wants to allow any success of Russia, precisely because they believe that in this case it will damage the leadership of the United States. That’s the whole point of what the U.S. is doing. But if the future administration changes the vector of goal-setting for itself and sees the meaning of its existence and its work in strengthening the United States from within, in strengthening the economy, finances, building normal relations in the world, more respectful to everyone, then something may change. It depends, in my opinion, on the public mood. The public mood is shifting in this direction to a certain extent, and if the future administration catches this wind in its sails, then change is possible.”

• “What makes you think we are threatening anyone? We are not threatening anyone, much less the head of another state. It’s a mauvais, it’s not a good tone. We have our own position on these or other issues. We know the position of European states, including the position of the Federal Republic, on the events that are taking place in Ukraine.”

• “Everyone believes that Russia started the war in Ukraine. But no one – I want to emphasize this – no one in the West, in Europe wants to remember where this tragedy began. It started with a coup d’état in Ukraine, an anti-constitutional coup d’état. This is the beginning of the war. But is Russia to blame for this coup d’état? No. Have those who are trying to blame Russia today forgotten that the foreign ministers of Poland, Germany and France came to Kyiv and signed the document on the settlement of the internal political crisis as a guarantor that the crisis should be ended peacefully and constitutionally? Europe, including Germany, prefers not to remember this. And if they do, the question arises: why did not the leadership of the Federal Republic, as well as the other signatories of this document, demand that those people in Ukraine who committed the coup d’état return to the legal constitutional field? Why did they neglect their obligations as guarantors of the agreements between the opposition and the government in power at the time? They are to blame for what happened, along with those forces in the United States that provoked the unconstitutional seizure of power. Don’t you know what followed? What followed was the decision of the people of Crimea to secede from Ukraine, what followed was the decision of the people of Donbass not to obey those who carried out the coup d’état in Kiev. This is the beginning of this conflict.”

• “And then Russia made every effort to find a formula for settlement by peaceful means, and in 2015 in Minsk signed the so-called Minsk agreements, which, by the way, were constitutionalized by a decision of the United Nations Security Council. This is a document that should have been implemented. No, they decided to close this problem by armed means. They started using artillery, tanks and aircraft against civilians in south-eastern Ukraine. For some reason, neither in Germany, nor in other European countries, nor in the United States – no one, I repeat, no one wants to remember this. Okay.”

• “I was once told by a former chancellor: “You know, in Kosovo, NATO acted without a Security Council decision. But there was eight years of bloodshed there, in Kosovo.” And here, when the blood of Russian people was spilled in Donbas, was it not blood, but water? No one wanted to think about it or notice it.”

• “And now for people who follow international events, international law. What happened next, what did we do? We didn’t recognize for eight years. When we realized that the peace agreements in Minsk were not destined to be implemented, what did we do? I ask everyone’s attention, please: we recognized the independence of these self-proclaimed republics. Could we do this or not from the point of view of international law? As Article One of the UN Charter says, we could. This is the right of nations to self-determination. And the international court of the UN made a decision (it is also stated on paper) that when deciding on the issue of independence and self-determination, if a territory of a country makes such a decision, it is not obliged to appeal to the higher authorities of this state. All this was done in connection with Kosovo. But there is a decision of the International Court of Justice of the UN, it is written as follows: if a territory decides on independence, it is not obliged to apply to the capital for permission to realize this right. But if this is so, and it is written in the decision of the UN court, then these unrecognized republics – Donetsk and Luhansk – had the right to do it. They did it, and did we then have the right to recognize these republics? Of course we did. Well, how could we? We recognized them. Then we concluded an agreement with them. Could we make a treaty with them or not? Yes, of course. The treaty provided for assistance to these states in case of aggression. But Kiev waged war against these states, which we recognized eight years later. Eight years.”

• “When the first German tanks, German-made tanks, appeared on Ukrainian soil, it already produced a moral and ethical shock in Russia, because the attitude towards the Federal Republic in Russian society has always been very good. Very good. Now, when they say that now there will be some more missiles that will strike objects on the territory of Russia, this, of course, finally destroys Russian-German relations. But we realize that, as a prominent German politician said, after World War II, the Federal Republic of Germany was never in the full sense of the word a sovereign state.”

• “Look: blown up pipelines by the unfortunate ones along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. No one is even outraged – as if that’s the way it should be. We supply, nevertheless we continue to supply gas to Europe through the territory of Ukraine. We are supplying. There were two pipeline systems, and the Ukrainian side closed one of them, screwed the valve, just closed it and that’s all, although there are no grounds for this. It left only one pipeline system – okay. But through it gas goes to Europe, and European consumers receive this gas. Our gas also goes to Europe through Turkey via the Turkish Stream, and European consumers receive it”.

• “Now, you know, I’m not calling for the disruption of any Euro-Atlantic ties, I don’t want to, or they will start (you or not you), someone will hear what I’m saying, they will say: here he is calling for a split in Euro-Atlantic solidarity. No, look, you have there, I think, a mistaken policy, just a gross mistake at every step. I think for the United States itself, what’s going on right now is a big, capital mistake. Because of the desire to maintain leadership, and by such means as they are doing, they are damaging themselves. But it is even worse for Europe. Yes, you could say: “We support you here, here and here, but this is ours. Look, if we undermine our economy, it will be bad for everyone. Under no circumstances can we do that, we are against it, it’s taboo, don’t encroach on it.“”

• “I can tell you with absolute certainty that our losses, especially when it comes to, unfortunately, irreplaceable losses, they are, of course, many times less than on the Ukrainian side.”

• “I can accurately name the numbers of those people who are held by both sides, in short, are in captivity. Our soldiers, officers on the Ukrainian side are 1,348 people. I know these figures because we work with them every day. And just recently, you know, there was an exchange: 75 people were exchanged for 75 people. Ukrainian soldiers we have 6465.”

• “That’s approximately, if we talk about irrecoverable losses, exactly irrecoverable losses, then the ratio is the same: one to five. We will proceed from this. This, by the way, is what the attempt to carry out total mobilization in Ukraine is connected with, because the losses on the battlefield are very high.”

• “You know, it looks like this: according to our calculations, the Ukrainian army loses 50 thousand people a month – this is sanitary and irrecoverable losses, both, although they have irrecoverable and sanitary losses 50/50 approximately. And the fact that now there is total mobilization does not solve the problems. Because, according to our data (we get from different sources), they recruit about 30,000 [people] a month, mobilize them – forcibly, not forcibly, mostly now, of course, they grab them on the streets by force. There are not many people willing to fight there.”

• “Last month, the month before last, somewhere between 50-55 thousand, according to our data, they recruited. But that doesn’t solve the problems. Do you know why? Because all this mobilization only covers the losses, it all goes to make up for the losses. And this is such a cardinal problem, which leads to lowering the age of mobilization: now from 27 [years of age] we’ve gone to 25.”

• “In any case – I said this publicly recently, I think, when I met with the press when I left Uzbekistan after my visit – I think that the US administration will force the current leadership of Ukraine to make these decisions – to lower the mobilization age to 18, and then they’ll just get rid of Zelensky. But first all this has to be done, because it’s not an easy story: the law has to be passed, certain steps have to be taken.”

• “We have well-developing relations between Russia and Iran, and in very many directions. We – both Russia and Iran – are under various sanctions, under various sanctions regimes. When we recently got acquainted with the level of development of certain industries in Iran, I was surprised at how our Iranian friends managed to maintain such a high level of production in certain areas under these conditions of multi-year sanctions. Of course, not in all of them, but in some of them it is simply amazing. But the fact remains.”

• “As for President Raisi, who passed away as a result of this tragedy, I would like to say that we had very reliable, good and business relations with him. He was a very interesting person, he was a serious politician, a reliable partner. He was a bit ironic in his attitude to everyday life, with a well-developed sense of humor. It was interesting to maintain relations with him, interesting and useful. I repeat once again: if we agreed on something with him, we could be sure that the topic we were talking about would not be forgotten. It does not mean that everything is necessarily, one hundred percent, solved, because it is not only the first persons who decide on this or that issue, but this topic will not be forgotten, and we worked together, on both sides, to improve our relations.”

• “As for bilateral relations with China, I would like to draw attention that they are not situational, they are based on deep mutual interests. After all, for 15 years China has been our main trade and economic partner. That is, we started building our relations and brought them to the current level not due to any conjunctural political events of the current day, but long before that, based on mutual interests. We acted very carefully, calmly, step by step. I must say that we are practically succeeding in everything.”

• “We are aware of everything that is happening in the economies of the world’s leading countries, including China’s. But on the whole it is very reliable and is becoming more and more high-tech. It seems to me that this is a big mistake on the part of the same United States or on the part of some European countries that want or are trying to somehow slow down China’s economy, because, in my opinion, in order to be successful ourselves, we should have been embedded in these processes, not trying to hinder them.”

• “As for long-range precision weapons – here we need to divide this topic into two parts. The first is conventional weapons, multiple rocket launchers, long-range weapons – 70 kilometers and something similar. They have been used for a long time. Indeed, Ukrainian servicemen can do it themselves. And as for modern high-tech means of defeat, high-precision and long-range, such as the British Storm Shadow or the American ATACMS or French missiles, what can be said here? I’ve already talked about this too, by the way, when I left Uzbekistan.”

• “ATACMS are 300 kilometers. How are they used, how are they transferred? Here they transferred the missile system – the Pentagon transferred it, the Americans transferred it. But how is it used? Ukrainian servicemen cannot do everything on their own and strike with this missile. They are simply technologically unable to do it. To do this, you have to have satellite reconnaissance, then on the basis of this satellite reconnaissance, and this is American satellite reconnaissance, you have to form a flight mission, and then enter it into the missile system. And the serviceman who is next to it, he does it just automatically: he pushes buttons. He may not even know what happens next.”

• “What can Ukrainian servicemen participate in – not those who sit and press buttons, but at a higher level? In choosing the target. They can say which target is a priority and necessary for them. But they do not decide whether to strike this target or not, because, I repeat, a flight task is formed and it is practically entered only by those who supply these weapons. If it’s ATACMS, then the Pentagon does it. If it’s Storm Shadow, then the British are doing it. And in the case of Storm Shadow, it’s even simpler. The simplicity is that the flight task is entered automatically, without the involvement of the military personnel on the ground, automatically. It’s done by the British, so that’s it.”

• “The second thing is that we are thinking on the theme that if someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where there will be strikes on the sensitive facilities of those countries that are doing this against Russia? So the response could be symmetrical. We will think about it.”

• “Third, of course, such actions will be definitive, they have already reached the highest degree of degradation even now, but will definitively destroy international relations and will undermine international security. Ultimately, if we see that these countries are being drawn into a war against us, and this is their direct participation in a war against the Russian Federation, then we reserve the right to act in a similar way. But, in general, this is a path to very serious problems. I think that is all. If you have any leading questions, please. But I think I can hardly add anything.”

• “We see that the position of the Italian government is more restrained than the policy of many other European countries, and we, paying attention to this, evaluate it accordingly. We see that in Italy there is no caveman Russophobia being fanned, and we kind of keep that in mind as well. We are very much counting on the fact that with Italy we will eventually, maybe after the situation is somehow rectified in the Ukrainian direction, manage to restore relations, and maybe even faster than with any other European country.”

• “I keep giving this example: we are making the MS-21 airplane, and there the wing – and this is a modern airplane made of modern materials – harnesses made of modern materials are inserted into the wing. The American administration took them and put them under sanctions, meaning that they were supposedly dual-use. That’s bullshit, there’s nothing dual-use about it. Because of what? Because it is a competitor to the Boeing 737, I think, I don’t remember, the same medium-range airplane. Yeah, and we kind of had a little bit of a slowdown in production. We had to work on it, but we did it: we “went to the right” on schedule for two years, really. Everything is done now, the airplane is flying.”

• “As for Akkuyu, everything is going according to plan, everything is on schedule, everything is absolutely on schedule, there are no delays, a large number of people are working, builders mainly. Builders from Turkey are involved in the implementation of a large volume of construction works. Our specialists are working in Turkey, we are grateful to the Turkish leadership for the conditions that have been created for this work. The first block is being completed, and absolutely normal work is going on in all blocks”.

• “By the way, we draw your attention to the fact that Turkey is cooperating with Ukraine in some areas, while Ukraine at the same time is trying to strike at the gas pipelines that carry gas to Turkey. This is not a joke, this is not an exaggeration of any kind. It’s just that two drones were suppressed by the Russian army’s REB systems and landed near this gas pumping station on the Black Sea coast. I’m not spinning anything here, I’m not making anything up, that’s just the way it is. Just please inform our friend President Erdogan about what is happening in the realities.”

• “You know, because what has happened? We have talked about it many times, no one knows it better than you. The Soviet Union collapsed: it collapsed or it was collapsed – it doesn’t matter, what matters is that it ceased to exist. And there was only one superpower left, which thought that God had fallen asleep on its shoulder, and now it could command everyone. But the world is complex, diverse, it is rapidly developing, new centers of power are emerging.”

• “One of the Western – European – politicians said -, not me, I want it to be clear to everyone – that all European states are small states, only not everyone has realized it yet.”

• “Look how Asia is developing. The People’s Republic of China – one and a half billion people, India already has more, probably. Other Asian countries, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia are developing at a great pace. And the pace of development is great, and the population is growing. And from the looks of it, the trends are such that development is being pumped there little by little.”

Results/forecasts:

The main point of Putin’s meeting with Western news outlets was to deliver certain talking points, particularly that Russia is not going to go to war with NATO and that Russia is not going to use nuclear weapons. It is these theses that have been the subject of much speculation in the media lately and have been appealed to by politicians. Putin also once again emphasized the conditions on which he is ready to negotiate with Ukraine. The main condition is that he does not recognize the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky. Putin also made a number of claims against the West in terms of military aid to Ukraine. One of the reasons for the interview is the desire to convey to consumers of information the thesis that the West is provoking a major conflict, and that at some point Russia may cross “red lines.” Ideally, this interview could create some tension in European countries and distrust towards “mainstream” parties in the run-up to the European Parliament elections. 

5. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Bolivian President Luis Alberto Arce Catacora

On Thursday, June 6, Vladimir Putin met with Bolivian President Luis Alberto Arce Catacora, who was on an official visit to Russia and took part in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg. During the meeting, the parties discussed bilateral relations, including in the sphere of high technology and nuclear energy.

Key talking points:

• Putin: “I am very pleased to welcome you in Russia, in St. Petersburg, at the International Economic Forum. This is your first time in Russia as head of state. We are very happy to see you. I am sure you will make a significant contribution to the work of our forum, bearing in mind that you are an economist by basic education and have worked as Minister of Economy and Minister of Finance. I hope you will be interested in taking part in the discussions that are already underway at the forum and will take place tomorrow.

• Putin: “As for bilateral relations, they are developing between Russia and Bolivia on a solid foundation of taking into account each other’s interests. The total volume of trade turnover in monetary terms is still small, but it has good upward trends: growth last year amounted to more than two and a half percent, I think. But there are interesting areas of our cooperation, including in the field of high technology. “Rosatom is implementing a good program and is building nuclear research and technology centers in El Alto. Among those already put into operation is the largest radiopharmacological complex in Latin America, which is already providing Bolivian clinics with appropriate drugs.”

• Catacora: “Thank you for all the support from the friendly Russian government, which has implemented several projects, such as the Nuclear Research and Technology Center you mentioned. We still need to realize a project in Bolivia with a Russian company in the field of lithium. We are looking forward to the work. We will work in other areas of cooperation between Russia and Bolivia.”

• Catacora: “We have a rich agenda that we will talk about. Thank you very much for this invitation. And thank you on behalf of the Bolivian people who are closely following what is going on. We are pleased to be here in your hometown. We are happy to visit, happy to share our experiences, our projects, our dreams that maybe we can realize with you.”

Outcomes/Predictions:

It was very important for Putin to point out that the geography of Russia’s sphere of influence in Latin America has seriously expanded beyond the traditional Cuba-Venezuela-Nicaragua. Bolivia is a case for the U.S., as attempts to install a puppet government in this country have ended in fiasco for the U.S., as well as a number of other attempts to reformat Latin American politics. 

Such a demonstration of expanding the zone of its own interests in this region is also supported by the planned in the near future exercises of the Russian Navy in the Atlantic Ocean, during which several Russian ships are planning to enter the port of Cuba. In all likelihood, escalation in this region will be an important geopolitical factor in the run-up to the U.S. presidential elections. 

6. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik

On Thursday, June 6, Vladimir Putin met with President of the Republic of Srpska Milorad Dodik, who also attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg. The parties discussed issues of bilateral trade, cultural ties, as well as prospects for further strengthening of communication.

Key talking points:

• Putin: “I welcome you to St. Petersburg. We saw each other not so long ago in Kazan on the margins of a sporting event. Now you have accepted our invitation and are already participating in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. We are very happy about this. Of course, we note that the overall volume of trade and economic activity in the area of economic development, is still modest. But this year we have seen a noticeable recovery growth compared to last year, and this is already good.

• Putin: “We are grateful to you for what you are doing in the spiritual sphere, in the sphere of supporting our ties through the foreign ministries. You know our position on the Dayton Accords, and it is unchanged: only those powers that were fixed in these international legal documents are the basis for not just preserving the situation, but for its development and strengthening. We will contribute to this in every possible way.”

• Dodik: “I also wanted to thank you for Russia’s qualitative position in the context of the Dayton Peace Agreement. I believe that you, as the country that is the guarantor of the Dayton Agreement, are the only one who has remained on the true principles of Dayton, as it is collapsing on the part of the West, its entire implementation is collapsing.”

• Dodik: “Now practically the situation on the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina is such that there is a constitutional order that is prescribed normatively, but in reality we have something completely different, which is absolutely contrary to the Constitution in the sense of a right that has been taken away from the Serbian people of the republic.”

• Dodik: “Thank you for your principled behavior and for your understanding in the context of the recent UN General Assembly meeting, where again initiatives in the context of Srebrenica were launched in an unconstitutional way from Bosnia and Herzegovina. The West used this opportunity – demonstrated that it is incompetent: 84 countries were in favor, and 109 countries were not in fact in favor of this resolution – [because] exactly as you and your representatives said, it does not contribute to mutual understanding, it only leads to additional problems in Bosnia and Herzegovina. So we have some sense of small satisfaction that there was not even a simple majority of countries. It shows that there is an awareness of what is happening across the Balkans.”

Outcomes/Predictions:

Relations with Republika Srpska (an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina) are extremely important for Russia to maintain control over political processes in the Balkans. Attempts to pressure Serbia – Russia’s main partner in the region – require new political trump cards from Russia. Dodik as the leader of Republika Srpska is the card that allows to influence the situation. In case of escalation, he can easily blow up the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina using the Serbian issue. It is no coincidence that at the same time Dodik renewed statements about a possible referendum on the expediency of Republika Srpska’s stay in BiH, as well as the subsequent issue of reunification of Republika Srpska and Serbia. In any case, this is a game that may for some time make the major states think whether to start playing a number of cards that are undesirable from Moscow’s point of view (Kosovo, EU and NATO enlargement, etc.).

7. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa

On Thursday, June 6, Vladimir Putin met with Zimbabwean President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, who, like other world leaders, visited Russia to participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg. It is noted that the parties discussed the growth of trade turnover between the two countries, as well as further prospects in strengthening bilateral relations.

Key talking points:

• Putin: “Relations between Russia and Zimbabwe were formed long ago still – during the period of struggle of your country, your people for independence – and now continue to develop actively. I was pleased to note that our trade turnover increased several times last year, but, of course, we must still work hard in this regard in order to diversify our ties”.

• Putin: “We have very good relations in the humanitarian sphere, in education: 400 young people from your country are studying in Russia, and we are constantly increasing this quota.”

• Mnangagwa: “We have common challenges… Southern Africa is generally seen as an anti-Western region, and I am honored that you have extended [me] an invitation to attend your forum. It is an opportunity for me to share the challenges that we face nationally and internationally also in terms of engagement with Western countries. It is also an opportunity to consolidate and identify areas where we can expand cooperation between our countries and make this cooperation more comprehensive. We don’t need to move away from each other, [we] have really similar perspectives on international issues.”

• Mnangagwa: “Our countries are by and large isolated areas, that is why we need to develop a comprehensive relationship with the Russian Federation. I assure you, the President of the Russian Federation, I intend to support you personally from Zimbabwe. We received support from you in the form of food last year, we received military support, security support. These are important areas. We see that the region is striving for independence despite the isolation.”

Outcomes/Predictions:

Zimbabwe plays an important role in southern Africa, building relations with Russia, China and Belarus. President Mnangagwa is very active in developing relations with Moscow. In addition, Zimbabwe is key to South African politics, as well as a key element in breaking through the sanctions policy against Russia (Zimbabwe is considered a transshipment point for many dual-use goods). 

8. Plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum

On Friday, June 7, Vladimir Putin took part in the plenary session of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and also delivered his traditional address to the forum participants, in which he voiced a number of well-known theses in the context of Russia’s foreign policy strategy and possible relations with other states. 

In 2024 SPIEF is held under the motto “The foundation of a multipolar world – formation of new points of growth”. It is attended by more than 12 thousand people – shareholders and CEOs of leading companies, recognized experts and analysts, political, public and government officials.

Key theses from Putin’s speech at SPIEF:

• “We see a real race between countries to strengthen their sovereignty, and at three key levels: state, value-cultural and economic. At the same time, the countries that have recently been the leaders of global development are trying to preserve their elusive role as hegemons. In general, there is nothing unusual here. When a country or a person in his life tries to preserve its positions, to strengthen them, but by untruths – it is bad. It is good to do it with the truth. But by untruths – it is not good”.

• “The countries of South Asia and Africa, where there is a high birth rate and still low level of urbanization, as well as rapid, catching-up growth of economies, are becoming louder and louder. According to experts and specialized specialists, these are the countries that will determine the global economic picture in the middle of this century”.

• “I am sure: both in the current conditions and in the long term, the role, weight and, let me say more, the future of states depend on how effectively they will be able to respond to global challenges, realize their internal potential, use their competitive advantages and offset weaknesses, preserve and strengthen partnership relations with other countries.”

• “It is obvious that the development of new markets requires strengthening transportation links. Thus, in the eastern direction, to China, to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region – the main project for us is the development of the so-called Eastern polygon of railroads. In April, the parameters of the next, already the third, stage of its modernization were approved. By 2030, the carrying capacity of the Eastern Range of Railways should increase to 210 million tons, and by 2032 – to 270 million tons.”

• “The Northern Sea Route is becoming a sought-after global artery. Last year, 36 million tons of cargo passed through it, and in the future, transportation may exceed 150 million tons. For this purpose we will continue to develop the infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route, build transportation approaches to Arctic ports. A special role in this work is assigned to the leaders of our northern subjects of the Federation. In this regard, we will form a commission on the development of the Arctic regions and the Northern Sea Route within the framework of the State Council.”

• “Russia ranks fourth in terms of GDP size and purchasing power parity. As I said, ahead of Japan. But what I would like to point out. It’s certainly not about GDP estimation and calculation systems, or even about formally coming in fourth. We are somewhere close to each other: Russia, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan. The difference is small. We are ahead, but the difference is small. But we realize that we need to constantly confirm and strengthen our leadership positions. Other countries are not standing still either. It is important for us to ensure consistently high rates and quality of growth in the long term. This is what our task is today.”

• “The third major structural change we are seeking is a new quality of the labor market. Today, unemployment in Russia is at a record low; in April it amounted to only 2.6 percent. What is especially important: we have reduced its so-called structural component, that is, youth unemployment and unemployment in those regions and localities where it was historically high has significantly decreased.”

• “The fourth structural change is directly related to the increase in the efficiency of the economy. Such an indicator until the end of the current decade is defined in the May decree. Given the demographic challenges we are facing, the objective shortage of personnel, the most important condition for achieving high rates of economic growth is related to increasing labor productivity. This is the most important resource.”

• “The fifth structural change is a real digital platform revolution. In modern conditions, labor productivity is directly related to digitalization, to the use of artificial intelligence technologies. By 2030, we will have to form digital platforms in all key sectors of the economy and social sphere. These tasks will be solved within the framework of the new national project “Data Economy””.

• “The sixth structural change is the forced, advanced saturation of economic sectors with modern technologies and innovations. This may be one of the key directions. In six years, we plan to become one of the world’s top ten leaders in terms of research and development. Domestic expenditures for these purposes should increase to at least two percent of GDP.”

• “The seventh most important structural change is the transformation of strengthening the role of small and medium-sized businesses in the development of the economy. Today, there are about 6.5 million small and medium-sized businesses in our country. If six years ago we set a goal to increase the number of people employed in this sector to 25 million, and it seemed very difficult. I recall that some colleagues laughed and said that this was an unrealistic goal. Today we can confidently say: this goal has been achieved and achieved ahead of schedule.”

• “The eighth most important structural change is related to unlocking the potential of Russia’s regions. This is a new geography of development, creation of points of growth in cities, towns and villages throughout the country, opportunities for people not only in the capital cities, but also in small towns and villages to acquire a profession, find a well-paid job or run their own business, realize themselves, live, raise children in comfortable, modern conditions”.

• “The development of domestic tourism is one of the priorities of our long-term strategy. In six years, the share of the tourism industry in the gross domestic product should increase to five percent, and the number of trips across the country with hotel accommodation should grow to 140 million people. We will create comfortable and affordable conditions for recreation, including the construction of hotels and small campgrounds, ski resorts and amusement parks.”

• “The global economy has entered an era of serious, fundamental changes. A multipolar world is taking shape with new growth centers, investment and financial links between states and companies. Russia’s economy is responding to these challenges and is also changing dynamically, gaining greater strength and stability. This is to a great extent the merit of our workers, engineers, managers and, of course, entrepreneurs, who are increasing their investments in the development of their companies, enterprises, cities and regions, bringing to the fore such values as responsibility, trust, service to their people and their country. We will increase our support for positive changes in society and the economy. Our long-term systemic plans to strengthen the financial, technological and human resources sovereignty of our country and to improve the business climate are focused on achieving national development goals. And in this work we are open for the widest cooperation with all interested partners: foreign companies, countries, integration associations”.

Results/Predictions:

For Putin, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is the number one forum for communicating with allies and partners, as well as for breaking through economic and political sanctions. By the personal composition of the forum’s guests, one can judge Russia’s strategy and tactics in matters of international politics and potential steps to strengthen its position in the world. Thus, it is already possible to note Russia’s increasing activity in Africa and Latin America, as well as its growing presence in the Middle East. The forum did not bring any sensations, but at the same time, an analysis of meetings, speeches and contracts during the forum can give an idea of trends in Russian diplomacy.