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Russia: Weekly Report (06.11 – 12.11)

This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Kazakhstan remains the most important partner of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Tokayev is trying to implement a multi-vector policy based on the interests of Kazakhstan. First, he is doing everything to ensure that Kazakhstan becomes one of the regional leaders in central Eurasia and to create an informal “triangle” Beijing – Moscow – Astana. Putin understands that Kazakhstan is a partner, not a vassal, and his relationship with Tokayev is respectful. Without Kazakhstan, Russia loses several advantages, including in economic relations with China. Publicly, Tokayev does not support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; he complies with all sanctions regulations regarding Russia (at the same time, he uses workarounds to supply sanctioned goods to Russia).
  • In the current situation, when it comes to possible reshuffles in the government or even a change of government, any meetings between Putin and Mishustin’s deputies are also considered from a political point of view: everyone remembers well 1999 and how, in a short time Yeltsin was prepared for a successor, making lightning-fast castlings and bringing into orbit the practically unknown Vladimir Putin, appointing him first as the chief of the FSB, and then as the head of the Government. That is why the meeting with Belousov caused a serious conspiracy theological resonance in Russia.
  • The statement by Yuri Ushakov, the informal head of Russian foreign policy and the primary contact between Moscow and Washington is not the first of its kind. Similar statements were made by Putin at the Valdai Forum, by Shoigu during his visit to China, etc. But in this situation, it is essential that Ushakov emphasised one of the principles that Russia will defend in preparation for the negotiations: it will not give up territorial gains (in Ushakov’s interpretation – the “new geopolitical reality”). And if, in Shoigu’s interpretation, Russia was ready for negotiations with the West, then Ushakov again started discussing negotiations with Ukraine (obviously, this is a US requirement – compliance with all diplomatic mechanisms and rules).

This report highlights the following topics that were most relevant for Russia during 06th – 11th of November:

1. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan;

2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with Andrei Belousov;

3. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with Deputy Head of the Central Military Council of China Zhang Yuxia;

4. Vladimir Putin’s visit to the headquarters of the Southern Military District;

5. New statement by Dmitry Medvedev about Ukraine;

6. Statement by Yuri Ushakov on readiness for negotiations with Ukraine.

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This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Kazakhstan remains the most important partner of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Tokayev is trying to implement a multi-vector policy based on the interests of Kazakhstan. First, he is doing everything to ensure that Kazakhstan becomes one of the regional leaders in central Eurasia and to create an informal “triangle” Beijing – Moscow – Astana. Putin understands that Kazakhstan is a partner, not a vassal, and his relationship with Tokayev is respectful. Without Kazakhstan, Russia loses several advantages, including in economic relations with China. Publicly, Tokayev does not support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; he complies with all sanctions regulations regarding Russia (at the same time, he uses workarounds to supply sanctioned goods to Russia).
  • In the current situation, when it comes to possible reshuffles in the government or even a change of government, any meetings between Putin and Mishustin’s deputies are also considered from a political point of view: everyone remembers well 1999 and how, in a short time Yeltsin was prepared for a successor, making lightning-fast castlings and bringing into orbit the practically unknown Vladimir Putin, appointing him first as the chief of the FSB, and then as the head of the Government. That is why the meeting with Belousov caused a serious conspiracy theological resonance in Russia.
  • The statement by Yuri Ushakov, the informal head of Russian foreign policy and the primary contact between Moscow and Washington is not the first of its kind. Similar statements were made by Putin at the Valdai Forum, by Shoigu during his visit to China, etc. But in this situation, it is essential that Ushakov emphasised one of the principles that Russia will defend in preparation for the negotiations: it will not give up territorial gains (in Ushakov’s interpretation – the “new geopolitical reality”). And if, in Shoigu’s interpretation, Russia was ready for negotiations with the West, then Ushakov again started discussing negotiations with Ukraine (obviously, this is a US requirement – compliance with all diplomatic mechanisms and rules).

This report highlights the following topics that were most relevant for Russia during 06th – 11th of November:

1. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Kazakhstan;

2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with Andrei Belousov;

3. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with Deputy Head of the Central Military Council of China Zhang Yuxia;

4. Vladimir Putin’s visit to the headquarters of the Southern Military District;

5. New statement by Dmitry Medvedev about Ukraine;

6. Statement by Yuri Ushakov on readiness for negotiations with Ukraine.

This Content Is Only For Subscribers

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