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Russia: Weekly Report (30.10-05.11)

This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Russia is demonstrating in every possible way that events in the Middle East are the focus of attention of the country’s leadership, although, in reality, the Russian Federation is deprived of the opportunity to influence the ongoing processes actively. Moscow may be waiting for the situation around the confrontation between Israel and Hamas to reach a certain critical point. Then, Russia will come up with a specific package of peace proposals. This is a long-known tactic: let others try; our solution will come later. This strategy, according to the Kremlin strategists, should bring maximum efficiency to Russia. Although it is possible that while Russia waits, many issues will be resolved without its participation.
  • Recently, for the first time, Putin decided to evaluate the events of the last decade – especially in relations with Ukraine. Putin actually admitted that Russia committed acts of aggression in 2014 and 2022 without having sufficient grounds for accusations against Ukraine, but only because Russia “felt” that Ukraine could pose a threat. That is, it was an indicative “punishment” of Ukraine.
  • Shoigu has recently been strengthening his position; Putin trusts him, and he represents Russia in important negotiations (not long ago, he headed the Russian delegation in Pyongyang). At the same time, Shoigu is still a stranger to most formed clans and groups around Putin. He can only rely on the authority of Putin himself and partly on the group of Sergei Chemezov (with which Shoigu has built a partnership).

This report highlights the following topics that were most relevant for Russia during 30th October – 5th November:

1. Meeting of Putin with members of the Security Council, Government and leadership of law enforcement agencies;

2. Telephone conversation between Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko;

3. Meeting of Putin with members of the Civic Chamber;

4. Shoigu’s visit to China;

5. Patrushev’s statement about US involvement in undermining the Nord Streams.

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This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic, and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Russia is demonstrating in every possible way that events in the Middle East are the focus of attention of the country’s leadership, although, in reality, the Russian Federation is deprived of the opportunity to influence the ongoing processes actively. Moscow may be waiting for the situation around the confrontation between Israel and Hamas to reach a certain critical point. Then, Russia will come up with a specific package of peace proposals. This is a long-known tactic: let others try; our solution will come later. This strategy, according to the Kremlin strategists, should bring maximum efficiency to Russia. Although it is possible that while Russia waits, many issues will be resolved without its participation.
  • Recently, for the first time, Putin decided to evaluate the events of the last decade – especially in relations with Ukraine. Putin actually admitted that Russia committed acts of aggression in 2014 and 2022 without having sufficient grounds for accusations against Ukraine, but only because Russia “felt” that Ukraine could pose a threat. That is, it was an indicative “punishment” of Ukraine.
  • Shoigu has recently been strengthening his position; Putin trusts him, and he represents Russia in important negotiations (not long ago, he headed the Russian delegation in Pyongyang). At the same time, Shoigu is still a stranger to most formed clans and groups around Putin. He can only rely on the authority of Putin himself and partly on the group of Sergei Chemezov (with which Shoigu has built a partnership).

This report highlights the following topics that were most relevant for Russia during 30th October – 5th November:

1. Meeting of Putin with members of the Security Council, Government and leadership of law enforcement agencies;

2. Telephone conversation between Putin and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko;

3. Meeting of Putin with members of the Civic Chamber;

4. Shoigu’s visit to China;

5. Patrushev’s statement about US involvement in undermining the Nord Streams.

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