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Monday, November 4, 2024

Moldova: elections with geopolitical overtones and a referendum of internal fracture

On October 20, Moldova held presidential elections and a referendum on changing the constitution for EU accession. Their results frankly surprised many people. Sociological surveys of the last months, as well as most experts, predicted Maya Sandu on October 20 “an easy walk” and victory in the first round, well, in the extreme case, the result close to 50%. And there were enough reasons for that. If we believe the polls, 30-35% of voters inside the country were ready to vote for Maia Sandu. If we count only the citizens who decided in the polls, this percentage would be about 38-43%. It is no secret that Moldova has become a country where the diaspora has the decisive voice. Therefore, if we add to the votes of support for Sandu in Moldova, 200-250 thousand votes or 13-16% of voters abroad, the incumbent president had something to count on. 

If we add to this the referendum on Chisinau’s European path, which was supposed to mobilize Sandu’s supporters as much as possible, becoming the main “chip” of her election campaign, then Maia Sandu’s potential rivals had almost no chance. Thus, Sandu’s main rivals, Alexandru Stoianoglo and Renato Usatii, according to various polls, were expected to gain 9-13% of all respondents and about 12-17% of those who had made up their minds. Even in the case of a second round, such a gap seemed insurmountable. Approximately the same situation was seen with the referendum: polls showed a result of 44-55% “in favor” of the referendum. These percentages plus the votes of the diaspora, which is overwhelmingly pro-European, gave supporters of the European choice reason to hope for a final result of more than 60% in favor. 

However, something went wrong: the Moldovan electorate turned out to be not as predictable as polls and experts said, and the authorities’ electoral arithmetic turned out to be, to put it mildly, untenable. According to the CEC of Moldova, Maia Sandu got 42,45%, while her closest competitor Alexandru Stoianoglo, candidate from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, got 25,98%. Renato Usatii took the third place, he received 13.79% of votes. Now Moldova is waiting for the second round of presidential elections with Sandu and Stoianoglo, and quite unpredictable result. As for the constitutional referendum, a convincing victory of the authorities on it cannot be called. According to preliminary data, 50.46% of citizens voted “for” the European future of Moldova. And this result was obtained only at the expense of votes at foreign polling stations. Inside the country, only 46% voted “for” the European vector.   

In this piece Ascolta analyzes the results of the presidential elections in Moldova, as well as identifies the main factors that influenced the results of the first round of the presidential elections, as well as the voting in the referendum. The piece also examines the possible consequences of the results on Chisinau’s European integration aspirations and relations with the EU and Moscow.

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On October 20, Moldova held presidential elections and a referendum on changing the constitution for EU accession. Their results frankly surprised many people. Sociological surveys of the last months, as well as most experts, predicted Maya Sandu on October 20 “an easy walk” and victory in the first round, well, in the extreme case, the result close to 50%. And there were enough reasons for that. If we believe the polls, 30-35% of voters inside the country were ready to vote for Maia Sandu. If we count only the citizens who decided in the polls, this percentage would be about 38-43%. It is no secret that Moldova has become a country where the diaspora has the decisive voice. Therefore, if we add to the votes of support for Sandu in Moldova, 200-250 thousand votes or 13-16% of voters abroad, the incumbent president had something to count on. 

If we add to this the referendum on Chisinau’s European path, which was supposed to mobilize Sandu’s supporters as much as possible, becoming the main “chip” of her election campaign, then Maia Sandu’s potential rivals had almost no chance. Thus, Sandu’s main rivals, Alexandru Stoianoglo and Renato Usatii, according to various polls, were expected to gain 9-13% of all respondents and about 12-17% of those who had made up their minds. Even in the case of a second round, such a gap seemed insurmountable. Approximately the same situation was seen with the referendum: polls showed a result of 44-55% “in favor” of the referendum. These percentages plus the votes of the diaspora, which is overwhelmingly pro-European, gave supporters of the European choice reason to hope for a final result of more than 60% in favor. 

However, something went wrong: the Moldovan electorate turned out to be not as predictable as polls and experts said, and the authorities’ electoral arithmetic turned out to be, to put it mildly, untenable. According to the CEC of Moldova, Maia Sandu got 42,45%, while her closest competitor Alexandru Stoianoglo, candidate from the pro-Russian Party of Socialists, got 25,98%. Renato Usatii took the third place, he received 13.79% of votes. Now Moldova is waiting for the second round of presidential elections with Sandu and Stoianoglo, and quite unpredictable result. As for the constitutional referendum, a convincing victory of the authorities on it cannot be called. According to preliminary data, 50.46% of citizens voted “for” the European future of Moldova. And this result was obtained only at the expense of votes at foreign polling stations. Inside the country, only 46% voted “for” the European vector.   

In this piece Ascolta analyzes the results of the presidential elections in Moldova, as well as identifies the main factors that influenced the results of the first round of the presidential elections, as well as the voting in the referendum. The piece also examines the possible consequences of the results on Chisinau’s European integration aspirations and relations with the EU and Moscow.

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