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Sunday, October 13, 2024

Russia: weekly report (29.07-04.08)

This report presents key events that had an important impact on political, economic and social processes within Russia.

According to the results of the past week the following trends can be defined in the following thesis:

  • According to Ascolta, during a meeting with members of the Russian Security Council, the issue of possible strengthening of contacts with the West – up to the point of elaborating Russia’s position in possible negotiations with the United States and NATO – was discussed. This is indirectly confirmed by several statements by individual politicians and officials. If this information is confirmed, we should expect a return to the attempt to negotiate new conditions of geopolitical stability, which was carried out in early 2022 but ended in the collapse of diplomacy. 
  • The statement by Sergei Ryabkov (one of the representatives of the “hawks” in Russian diplomacy) is not an announcement of upcoming steps, but a demonstration of possibilities, a push for the West to positively resolve the issue regarding the preparation of a new agreement on strategic arms control and the INF Treaty. Ryabkov talks about the mirroring of the steps, realising that this will cause sharp reactions and concerns in the West. Thus, the messages regarding possible actions on Russia’s part are more about preparing public opinion for the need for a negotiation process between Russia on the one hand and the United States and NATO on the other. 
  • The topic of the functioning of the defence industry is extremely important to Putin – especially in the current “Cold War 2.0”, when the opposing sides are demonstrating their capabilities in the arms race and in the development of military technologies. The meeting with Chemezov should also emphasise that predictions of Chemezov’s disgrace and possible resignation are untenable: virtually all of Chemezov’s clientele are in their posts (Vaino, Manturov, Alikhanov and others). 

This digest looks at the following issues that were most relevant to Russia between 29 July and 4 August:

  1. Vladimir Putin meeting with Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec State Corporation;
  2. Russian-Indonesian negotiations;
  3. Prisoner exchange between Russia, the United States and Germany;
  4. Meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council;
  5. Sergey Ryabkov’s statement on the possibility of Russia deploying nuclear missiles in response to US actions.

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This report presents key events that had an important impact on political, economic and social processes within Russia.

According to the results of the past week the following trends can be defined in the following thesis:

  • According to Ascolta, during a meeting with members of the Russian Security Council, the issue of possible strengthening of contacts with the West – up to the point of elaborating Russia’s position in possible negotiations with the United States and NATO – was discussed. This is indirectly confirmed by several statements by individual politicians and officials. If this information is confirmed, we should expect a return to the attempt to negotiate new conditions of geopolitical stability, which was carried out in early 2022 but ended in the collapse of diplomacy. 
  • The statement by Sergei Ryabkov (one of the representatives of the “hawks” in Russian diplomacy) is not an announcement of upcoming steps, but a demonstration of possibilities, a push for the West to positively resolve the issue regarding the preparation of a new agreement on strategic arms control and the INF Treaty. Ryabkov talks about the mirroring of the steps, realising that this will cause sharp reactions and concerns in the West. Thus, the messages regarding possible actions on Russia’s part are more about preparing public opinion for the need for a negotiation process between Russia on the one hand and the United States and NATO on the other. 
  • The topic of the functioning of the defence industry is extremely important to Putin – especially in the current “Cold War 2.0”, when the opposing sides are demonstrating their capabilities in the arms race and in the development of military technologies. The meeting with Chemezov should also emphasise that predictions of Chemezov’s disgrace and possible resignation are untenable: virtually all of Chemezov’s clientele are in their posts (Vaino, Manturov, Alikhanov and others). 

This digest looks at the following issues that were most relevant to Russia between 29 July and 4 August:

  1. Vladimir Putin meeting with Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec State Corporation;
  2. Russian-Indonesian negotiations;
  3. Prisoner exchange between Russia, the United States and Germany;
  4. Meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council;
  5. Sergey Ryabkov’s statement on the possibility of Russia deploying nuclear missiles in response to US actions.

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