Russia for the week (20.05-26.05)

1. Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Chief Executive of Iran

On Monday, May 20, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Mohammad Mokhber, Acting Chief Executive of Iran. During the conversation, the Russian president expressed condolences to the entire Iranian people over the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and a number of other Iranian statesmen in a plane crash. 

It is also noted that during the conversation Putin emphasized that he knew and appreciated Ebrahim Raisi as a reliable partner who had made an invaluable personal contribution to the development of friendly relations between Russia and Iran. In turn, Mohammad Mokhber thanked his Russian counterpart for his support. Both sides emphasized their mutual commitment to further consistent strengthening of comprehensive Russian-Iranian cooperation.

Totals/Predictions:

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is a serious blow to the plans of Russia and the Global South, as Raisi was one of the main actors in the creation of the Anti-Western Axis. Among other things, Putin feels a serious threat to his own security (Russia does not believe in the accidental death of the Iranian president). A great many issues were resolved in direct contact between Putin and Raisi (although Putin and Raisi disagreed on security issues in the Caucasus). It was also important that Tehran and Moscow had a common strategy on Syria, and that Russia informally supported Iran in its actions against Israel.  Now the main thing for Russia is to maintain the same dynamics of relations with Iran’s next president, without allowing the country’s political orientation to change. 

Russia is reportedly ready to help the Iranian authorities secure the results of the presidential election in order to prevent reformists and supporters of rapprochement with the West from taking power.      

2. Meeting on the development of the fuel and energy complex

On Monday, May 20, Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the development of the fuel and energy complex. According to official data, the meeting discussed the current state of the fuel and energy complex, as well as tasks for the medium and longer term. 

The meeting was attended by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin, Minister of Energy Sergey Tsivilev, Chairman of the Management Board of PJSC Gazprom Alexey Miller and Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Management Board of PJSC Rosneft Igor Sechin.

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “I would like to draw attention to solving the tasks related to improving the welfare of Russian families, sustainable and dynamic growth of economic sectors, digitalization, ensuring technological leadership and, of course, the implementation of large-scale social projects and programs, including the continuation of social gasification.”

• Putin: “I would like to emphasize that despite sanctions and strong volatility in the global and regional energy markets, the domestic fuel and energy complex is developing steadily, opening new export routes and, which is fundamentally important and is a priority for us, reliably and fully meeting growing domestic needs. Russia’s economy is growing, its needs are increasing, and they are being met by the fuel and energy sector.

• Putin: “Quite stable indicators in the oil industry as well. For example, since the beginning of this year, gross oil production has amounted to 195 million 700 thousand tons, which is slightly – by 1.8 percent – less than in the same period last year. But we proceed from the fact that we have an OPEC+ agreement, and this is a voluntary reduction”.

• Putin: “As you know, the Address to the Federal Assembly defined a whole range of industries that we should focus on. We have outlined a number of goals of a fundamental nature facing the fuel and energy complex, which is undoubtedly one of the most important industries. These goals have been set for the next six years.

• Putin: “In addition, two years ago, at an industry meeting, I instructed the government to develop and approve a long-term energy strategy. And when I said that we would meet in a larger group, I meant just to discuss the preparation of this strategy. I ask that this work be accelerated and completed as quickly as possible.

Totals/Predictions:

As predicted, Putin intends to continue to emphasize individual points in his February Address, presenting it as a program of presidential action. Despite the populism of some provisions, Putin demonstrates that the program as a whole is absolutely workable and can be taken as a basis. Energy issues are already at the top of the agenda, but it is important for Putin to show that this is all about implementing his program. It is a very well practiced trick when important economic issues are tied to the propaganda machine and the need to strengthen the image of the Leader.

3. Vladimir Putin meets with Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin

On Tuesday, May 21, Vladimir Putin held a working meeting with State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin in the Kremlin. During the meeting, they discussed the results of government formation (in accordance with amendments to the Constitution, Parliament has been granted additional rights to form the supreme executive body), as well as other topical issues.

Key Abstracts:

• Volodin: “During the discussion of the Constitution, you proposed to transfer some of the powers of the President to our citizens so that they could participate in the formation of the Government through their deputies. And of course, this was a very important period for us, because it was the first time that we were involved in approving the Government with such powers.

• Volodin: “We spent a whole day on this – there were a lot of questions: more than three hundred of them were voiced during the discussion. At first, our colleagues from the Government, who were also going through this procedure for the first time, may not have realized the depth of it, but then it became obvious that this is also very responsible and important for them, and they understand that they communicate with people through deputies and answer these questions not only to deputies, but to everyone who is watching this dialogue. We did it all live, we prepared in advance, we connected regional parliaments via video-conference mode. Representatives of the business community were present in the State Duma.

• Volodin: “In general, when we talk about this new procedure that you have initiated, which I would like to emphasize once again by transferring the powers of the President to the Duma, of course, it basically changes the attitude to work, first of all, probably, of the deputy corps. Because we have begun to realize our responsibility for the decisions we make, for the final result. Previously, for example, there were situations when a problem existed and deputies explained it by the ineffectiveness of the Government. They absolved themselves of responsibility and said: the Government is to blame.

• Putin: “The formation of the executive authorities, primarily the Government of the Russian Federation, after the presidential election is a very important stage in the work of the State Duma, because, as I have already said, there should be no disruptions, no interruptions in the work. In general, there should not be in the normal mode, and in the conditions of today it is all the more important”.

• Putin: “Indeed, the death of President Raisi is a great loss first of all, of course, for Iran and the Iranian people. I ask you to convey my sincere condolences on this tragedy.

• Putin: “Indeed, this was a very reliable partner. A man of directness, a man who was self-confident above all, who was guided by national interests. Of course, he was a man of his word, and it was a pleasure to work with him. I mean that if we agreed on something, we could always be sure that the agreements would be fulfilled.

• Putin: “For our part, we will do everything to ensure that Russian-Iranian relations continue in this manner. Please convey these words to the leadership of Iran. And if our colleagues have a need, we are ready to do everything we can to provide them with expert support, expert assistance in identifying the true cause of this catastrophe.”

Totals/Predictions:

This is an absolutely ritualistic action that is intended to show the connection between the president and the State Duma. In addition, Putin once again emphasized Volodin’s importance, showing that he is not going to eliminate him from the list of potential successors.    

4. Meeting of the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives

On Wednesday, May 22, the Russian president chaired a meeting of the supervisory board of the autonomous non-profit organization Agency for Strategic Initiatives to Promote New Projects. Also, before the meeting, Putin inspected the exhibition “Technological Sovereignty”, dedicated to the main areas of ASI’s activities. The exposition is located on the site “Boiling Point Arbat”. This is a special space where lectures, seminars, master classes and business games of the Agency take place. Since 2013, 182 “boiling points” have been created in 71 regions of Russia.

Putin was also presented with the Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Azov Region until 2040, developed by ASI in cooperation with VEB.RF. The document is planned to be implemented in conjunction with plans for the development of four temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine and the modernization of the coal and metallurgical industry in Donbass.

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “The meeting of the Supervisory Board of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives is taking place, as we understand, at a rather crucial moment. As you know, national development goals for the long term have been defined. To achieve them, new national projects and programs are being formed and prepared for launch.

• Putin: “I would like to emphasize: we will certainly solve the most ambitious tasks, ensure the growth of the economy, and thus the well-being of Russian families, if we continue to expand opportunities for our scientific and production teams, for engineering, entrepreneurial, creative teams, for volunteers and representatives of non-profit organizations, the non-profit sector.”

• Putin: “On this platform, the initiatives of citizens, business, and the non-profit sector become part of the state agenda. Thus, as a result of the February forum, many specific proposals were included in the Address to the Federal Assembly, for which I would like to thank you, and in the strategic action program, which was supported by almost the entire nation”.

• Putin: “Solidarity in technological development is extremely important. The Agency’s experience is also in demand here. Especially since the first national project of technological sovereignty on unmanned aircraft systems was formed and launched largely thanks to the contribution of private companies and university teams within the framework of the National Technological Initiative”.

• Putin: “In general, I ask the Agency to more actively develop international partnership, the direction of its activities, and to participate in promoting the best Russian practices, brands, and projects in the world. And I think you realize this: the more effective we are, the harder it will be for our detractors to restrict us in anything. On the contrary: if effective solutions are offered, they will be taken despite any restrictions, 100 percent. The market will build everything. And of course, we have to fight for the market.

• Putin: “Another important topic that I propose to discuss today is the standard of business social capital. We have agreed from the very beginning that there will be no excessive bureaucracy or formal reporting. On the contrary, and I believe this is fundamentally important, there should be a system of incentives and support tools for companies that make an effective contribution to strengthening technological and industrial sovereignty, create new jobs, take care of employees, implement social and environmental programs, support participants in special military operations, improve and sometimes even build new, modern cities and towns. I know that you have such examples. If you think it is possible, it would be good to present them.

Totals/Predictions:

It is very important for Putin and his technologists to emphasize the strategic nature of the president’s team’s thinking and the existence of advanced views and projects. In addition, the point of this event was also to show concern for the annexed “new territories” (in particular, the Azov region). In the minds of ordinary Russians, the idea should be formed that the Azov region is “forever” and that it is “an integral part of Russia”.   

5. Russian-Bahrain negotiations

On Thursday, May 23, the Kremlin hosted talks between Vladimir Putin and King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, who arrived in Russia on an official visit. It is noted that the talks began with a small talk and continued with the participation of members of the delegations in the format of an official breakfast.

According to official data, during the talks, the sides discussed the state and prospects of Russian-Bahraini cooperation in trade, economic, energy and humanitarian fields, as well as topical issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East in view of Bahrain’s chairmanship in the Arab League.

Key Abstracts: 

• Putin: “Your Majesty, we have not seen you since 2016, although we have been in contact all this time. Most recently, in March, we spoke on the phone once again. Next year we celebrate 35 years of diplomatic relations between our countries. Over these years a lot has been done in building relations between our states. We have very good contacts through the Foreign Ministries, and our positions are close on many issues on the international agenda”.

• Putin: “Just recently, a week ago, there was a meeting of the Arab League, where Bahrain currently holds the presidency. And of course, it would be very interesting to know your opinion on the situation in the Middle East and how these problems were discussed.

• Putin: “As for the level of trade ties, unfortunately it is still symbolic, but the trends are good. As for investment cooperation, the situation here is more favorable: about 30 major projects are underway, the total volume of the package is somewhere around 500 million dollars”.

• Hamad Ben Isa Al Khalifa: “I consider this day to be one of the happiest days of my life, and I am meeting you on this day. Thank you very much for your invitation, for your warm welcome. We have really been in Moscow, in this beautiful city, for a long time, and we missed you very much, so we are happy to be visiting and meeting our friends”.

• Hamad Ben Isa Al Khalifa: “Of course, the development of our cooperation in various spheres in a bilateral format is extremely important for us. Among other important goals of our visit: I would like to tell you about the results of the LAS summit. Your Arab friends convey their best wishes to you and highly appreciate Russia’s role in what concerns the just resolution of Arab problems. There is full understanding and agreement on the need for a peaceful international conference. Russia will be the first country that I will call on to support the holding of this conference, because Russia plays an important role – it can help – and is one of the most influential countries at the world level. I hope that this conference will be held in Bahrain, God willing.”

• Hamad Ben Isa Al Khalifa: “Also, Mr. President, I want to congratulate you on your victory in the elections. This shows your wise policy and also has a positive impact not only on the situation in your country but also on the Arab world. It brings stability to Russia, our brotherly country, and today we see an unprecedented growth in Russia’s economy, improvement in the social and security situation. This is not only happening in Russia and has a positive impact on our region as well.”

• Hamad Ben Isa Al Khalifa: “One of the other topics is the situation in the Gaza Strip. It is a painful topic and we want an end to the war in this part of the globe in order to save the lives of civilians. Many people, hundreds of thousands, have been displaced from their homes because of this conflict. This area is only 40 kilometers long and 12 kilometers wide, and on this land there are women, children, and they are being shelled. I emphasize that we are talking about peaceful people, innocent people. As for the dispute, the disagreements, they are historical. Of course, we will not touch on the course of military operations, we are talking about the peaceful component. The position of the Arab countries during the LAS summit was practically unanimous for the first time. This pleases us and me personally, because this is the responsibility of the entire Arab world – the responsibility to solve serious problems.

• Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa: “We also think about the principles of good neighborliness in Bahrain. We want to have diplomatic, normal, cultural and other various relations with our neighbors. There is no doubt that you, Mr. President, will support this idea. The Bahraini people and myself also support it. I hope that there will be good relations between all the countries in the region, particularly with Iran, because we used to have problems. Now they are almost gone. And God willing, there is no reason to postpone the normalization and improvement of relations, particularly with Iran. We have a history of relations, we used to have mutual visits, so the development of trade, the development of living standards will be a positive fact if this is realized.”

Totals/Predictions:

Despite its small size, Bahrain plays an important role in the Arab world and the Gulf Basin. Putin is essentially creating a chain of agents of influence in the Arab world, the Middle East and OPEC+. It is important for Russia to negotiate with a number of states to control oil production and to keep world oil prices high. It is also interested in the coordinated work of all countries in the region to create a unified policy of the Global South in confrontation with the West, as well as opportunities for overcoming sanctions from the West (including using the capabilities of Bahrain).   

6. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Minsk

On Thursday, May 23, Vladimir Putin arrived in Minsk on an official two-day visit at the invitation of President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. It is noted that during the visit the parties discussed topical issues of further development of the Russian-Belarusian relations of strategic partnership and alliance, progress and prospects of integration cooperation within the Union State, as well as key topics on the international agenda.

It is important to note that together with the Russian president, representatives of the military leadership of the Russian Federation headed by the new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, as well as representatives of the military-industrial and energy complexes of the Russian Federation arrived in Minsk. Moreover, the mass media started actively spreading information that the plane of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych arrived in Minsk at the same time as Putin’s visit. 

The first conversation between Putin and Lukashenko took place immediately upon arrival at the airport. 

Key Abstracts:

• Lukashenka: “Vladimir Vladimirovich, thank you. I was driving along and thought: we have such a tradition that we always do not have time to start negotiations in the daytime, we always wait until midnight.

• Lukashenko: “The Belarusian people will be very happy to know that you have come to visit us. This is one of the first visits after the elections, after the People’s Republic of China – our friends. We will discuss our relations with the People’s Republic of China as well”.

• Lukashenka: “I have a very interesting proposal for our region and beyond, for the Caucasus [region], we discussed it very seriously recently during our visit to Azerbaijan. I think that, as usual, we will put security issues [to the] forefront, and tomorrow we will discuss economic issues together with our colleagues from the governments.”

• Putin: “After the talks with our Arab friends, I had a big meeting with members of the Government, and they talked about my visit to you. We went over practically all areas: industrial cooperation, energy, agriculture, and security issues. Probably half of the government was there. Some of them will come and participate in the negotiations tomorrow. And those who will not be here have conveyed to you great greetings and wishes for the well-being of Belarus. A lot has been done by our colleagues recently with your direct participation and support.

Already on Friday, May 24, official bilateral talks were held in Minsk. Before the start of the talks, there was an official welcoming ceremony for the heads of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, during which the leaders introduced the members of their delegations. The talks began with a small talk and continued in an enlarged one. According to official data, they discussed the development of Russian-Belarusian relations of strategic partnership and alliance, integration cooperation within the framework of the Union State, as well as current international issues.

Key talking points from the open part of the narrowly negotiated talks:

• Lukashenko: “As we agreed with you yesterday, we always have two parts: security and economic issues. We have always postponed economic issues for consideration by our governments, but today is the occasion to hear what has already been done in connection with our instructions, and one and a half or two issues that should have been resolved, we will also listen to specialists and they will report to us. At the final press conference we will inform the mass media about it, we will tell them everything.

• Lukashenko: “And now, I think we should, if you don’t mind, listen to the heads of the groups present: they will report to us on the problems, if any. And I think we are able to make certain decisions today in order to make sure that – what people have been talking about a lot lately, they say well that we are allies, close, kin states – so that in this plan, in this context we will be able to make these decisions.

• Putin: “Alexander Grigorievich, thank you very much for the invitation, I am saying this from our entire team. Of course, we are in constant contact. We are in constant contact, in touch, and we meet regularly. There are always some milestones. We have an opportunity now to assess what has been done, what is happening now and what should be done in the near future, to outline concrete joint steps for our movement forward, for the development of our countries.

• Putin: “On the whole, I think we are doing a good job, if we talk about the economy. The results of economic development speak for themselves, and I want to congratulate you on that. Belarus is feeling confident, standing on its feet, the economy is developing.

• Putin: “You just said about the city. Indeed, I drove around and looked at it, the city is in a very good condition, it is beautiful. First of all, I want to congratulate the city authorities on this. The weather is good today, and the atmosphere is festive.

Key messages from the public part of the enlarged negotiations:

• Lukashenka: “In early May, at the events in Moscow, we agreed to meet and with the participation of members of the governments to discuss in detail all the issues of interest to us, which we have just done in a small group. We exchanged views on the most sensitive topics on the bilateral agenda, on which the state of the economy and the stable development of our states depend”.

• Lukashenko: “In spite of everything, Minsk and Moscow keep the course on strengthening integration, we support each other and will support each other in all directions, and our projects have already gone beyond the earth’s surface.”

• Lukashenko: “Industry. In this area, we plan to continue concrete work on the implementation of joint import-substituting projects in microelectronics, machine building, machine tool construction, and military-technical cooperation. In other words, in areas that ensure the achievement of the goals of technological sovereignty and economic security of our states. Vladimir Vladimirovich, you and I have made all the decisions, and the governments must implement them within a short period of time”.

• Lukashenko: “Energy. The rhythmic work of industry and the cost of final products depend on it. It is necessary to finalize the terms of oil and gas supplies to the Republic of Belarus. We have been discussing this for a number of years, and today Vladimir Vladimirovich has made the relevant decision. I think the governments will finalize these agreements in the coming days. We have worked out all the nuances in detail.

• Lukashenka: “Belarus is also ready to continue working with Russian companies in the nuclear energy sector. The experience of erecting the Belarusian NPP has opened up new opportunities for further mastering of these technologies, training of qualified personnel and even joint construction of such facilities in third countries (addressing A. Likhachev), for which, Alexei, we are very grateful to you, that you bring our specialists up to the level of Russian knowledge. We will be happy to work in this direction.

• Lukashenko: “Transportation and logistics. A lot has been done, but the needs of enterprises are growing every day. We need more serious investments in the development of railroad infrastructure, renovation of rolling stock, increase in carrying capacity, and financial support for our air carriers. We need measures to increase the utilization of Belarusian and Russian airports, joint projects that will make communication between our regions easier and more accessible, although a lot has been done recently.

• Lukashenko: “State procurement. We are interested in working more closely with Russian state corporations. A couple of weeks ago at the EEU meeting in Moscow I raised this issue in the context of state procurement. I think you will agree with my thesis that we should not limit ourselves by closing ourselves off from each other in our common market in the Union State.

• Putin: “We meet regularly, but after the election of the President of the Russian Federation and the formation of the Government of the Russian Federation, of course, it was necessary to gather in such a composition, a broad composition in order to outline the next milestones of our mutual development.”

• Putin: “You mentioned investment activity. I believe that this is one of our most important areas. I mean that we should, of course, emphasize, first of all, the priority areas of our cooperation. And these priority areas are, first of all, of course, high technology and everything related to it. The future, of course, lies in this.

• Putin: “We have accumulated good potential in this area. We have just been talking in a small group about the fact that the most important thing for all of us is to look for priority areas in the field of high technologies and to help each other develop these competencies. All the more so because of the so-called sanctions, and there have been more sanctions imposed on Russia than on anyone else in the world – 16,000 different ones – they create certain problems, of course, we see and feel it. But they create certain opportunities for us to develop.

• Putin: “Where we have lost the competencies we had before, we are rapidly restoring them, and where we did not have them, we need them, we are creating them. And of course, we can create them in the most efficient way by joining our efforts, together. One of the most important tasks is to look for these areas, these areas of cooperation, to create the synergy that we all need”.

• Putin: “I agree with Alexander Grigorievich that logistics and transportation is one of the absolute priorities today, meaning that we need to restore and create new supply chains, both among ourselves and to help each other, in order to ensure uninterrupted operation of our enterprises, including those focused on the markets of the two countries and on the markets of third countries that want to work with us. There are quite a lot of such countries.

• Putin: “I would like to draw your attention to the fact that – and my Russian colleagues will confirm this – Belarusian agricultural products enjoy well-deserved attention in the Russian market. We have a large number of trade enterprises, where it is explicitly stated on the signs that goods from Belarus are in great demand, I mean quality.

• Putin: “Of course, interregional cooperation remains a very important area of our interaction. The heads of our representative authorities pay special attention to this. Alexander Grigorievich and I have always supported this cooperation and will continue to do so, because a significant amount of trade turnover is concentrated at the regional level, in the regional dimension. It is of great importance when there is no need to ‘push’ anyone from the center, when people just work with each other because it is profitable”.

• Putin: “There is another important area – the construction of the Union State. Colleagues at the level of governments have done a lot recently to create conditions for our further cooperation both in the sphere of economy and politics. Good tools for further development of these plans have been created here. We will soon be celebrating the anniversary of the Union State, and this will also strengthen our interaction, which will certainly benefit the development of our states and our peoples”.

Also, at the end of the talks, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko held a traditional press conference, during which they voiced a number of theses and answered journalists’ questions. 

Key Abstracts:

• Lukashenka: “Recently, the Belarusian-Russian relations have been on a noticeable upswing – the level of interaction and trust between our countries in all areas is truly unprecedented. We can confidently state that the economies of Belarus and Russia are developing dynamically despite various kinds of obstacles, known obstacles”.

• Lukashenka: “We are aimed at further development of the nuclear industry in Belarus on the basis of Russian technologies. We have discussed in detail the issues of industrial cooperation, development of machine and machine tool building, microelectronics, first of all, from the point of view of building up import-substituting industries, which will help ensure our import independence and technological sovereignty. Ultimately, this is the security of our states.

• Lukashenko: “There are no unsolvable problems in the relations between our countries. There are some pending ones that require closer attention and deep consideration. We must honestly admit that we have resolved all the issues and there are no unsolved issues at the moment. I am sure that we will work in the same way in the future. In this context, today we discussed the issues of forming a common industrial policy within the framework of the Union State. In fact, we must once and for all eradicate the remaining protective measures and restrictions. Otherwise, not only our peoples, but we ourselves will not understand each other.

• Lukashenko: “Considerable attention was paid to the development of the transportation and logistics sector. Here we are unanimous in our opinion that this very promising sector requires serious additional investments.

• Lukashenko: “In recent years, we have taken a fresh look at regional cooperation and appreciated its potential. Belarus and its regions today, without exaggeration, cooperate with practically all constituent entities of the Russian Federation, exports are growing. By the way, I have already mentioned it, the XI Forum of Regions of Belarus and Russia will be held in Vitebsk, Polotsk and Novopolotsk on June 27 and 28 this year.

• Putin: “As is well known, this trip is one of the first foreign visits after the election and assumption of office of the President and after the formation of the Government of the Russian Federation. Thus, we would like to emphasize the importance that Russia attaches to fraternal ties with our nearest neighbor, a reliable ally and a truly strategic partner”.

• Putin: “Two important dates are coming up this year: on July 3, we will jointly celebrate the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belarus from Nazi invaders, and this is our common victory. We remember the cost of the victory and cherish the memory of our fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers who defended life and freedom for us and for future generations. And December 8 marks the 25th anniversary of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Over the past quarter of a century we have managed to achieve a lot in the integration tracks”.

• Putin: “In accordance with the decision of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, adopted on January 29 in St. Petersburg, new promising areas of integration have been identified. A plan of specific measures to further deepen economic cooperation to minimize the damage caused by illegal Western restrictions, technological development and import substitution is at the final stage of agreement.

• Putin: “Russia has invested over five billion dollars in the Belarusian economy. Two and a half thousand Russian companies are working in the republic, joint projects are being implemented in strategically important industries, such as production of cars and machine tools, agricultural machinery, microelectronics, civil aviation. Cooperation in agriculture, in the agro-industrial complex of Russia and Belarus is actively developing, those areas that are priorities for us in this sphere are harmoniously complementing each other, which reliably and uninterruptedly provides food for the population of our countries and directs the surplus to foreign markets”.

• Putin: “In view of the tense situation on the external borders of the Union State, during the talks we discussed in detail the issues of forming a common defense space. A joint regional grouping of troops has been deployed on the Belarusian territory. Russian modern defense complexes and tactical nuclear weapons – all this reliably covers the western borders of our countries and the Collective Security Treaty Organization”.

• Putin: “The issues of further coordination of actions in the international arena were also touched upon today. I would like to note that Russia and Belarus share common positions on most global and regional issues and provide each other with mutual friendly assistance in various multilateral forums. In this context, I would like to emphasize that Russia has contributed in every possible way to Belarus joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The President has also just spoken about this. We assume that already in July at the summit of the organization in Astana it will be announced that all the necessary procedures have been completed and Belarus will become the 10th member country of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This will undoubtedly strengthen the authority of the organization itself and will serve to strengthen security and stability in the entire Eurasian space”.

• Lukashenka: “We are constantly, as I have already said, not just discussing issues of our security and defense of our states. Vladimir Vladimirovich has just spoken about the main thing – we have created a joint grouping for the defense of the Union State. We are constantly keeping an eye on everything that happens on our borders, we see it and we know it, starting with the building of various fences and the hysteria fueled drills that are held near our borders, which, as I said, are about 90,000 foreign troops. Really, one wonders what the Americans, Germans and so on are doing there on our borders.”

• Lukashenko: “As for the exercises you mentioned. What is there to evaluate them? I said, if you are an automatic rifleman… We all understand it, what is an automatic rifle for? To attack or defend. We have no desire to attack anyone. To defend. How to defend? Must know how to use this weapon. It’s a deadly, dangerous weapon, you can’t compare it to a machine gun – you have to train.

• Lukashenka: “I honestly admitted that this is our third training session since the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. The Russians, they haven’t publicized it before, probably have dozens of such trainings. Nothing surprising. We are doing everything that they [Western countries] did before us and are doing now. They teach, train foreign pilots and so on, in particular, the Americans train German pilots in Germany with nuclear weapons carriers, in particular bombs, if we are talking about airplanes, and missiles. We are not doing anything special, we are preparing, we are training, we have to be ready. The world is unstable, dangerous, we must not miss this strike, as it happened in the middle of the last century. We will not allow it, they should know about it.”

• Putin: “We treat the security of Belarus in exactly the same way as we do the security of the Russian Federation. And this is probably the key element of our cooperation in this area.

• Putin: “As for compliance with norms, Russia’s commitments in this sphere, we fully comply with all our obligations in the field of nuclear weapons. There is nothing here that we have violated, nothing unusual compared to the work of the same NATO bloc. Alexander Grigorievich has just mentioned this. The same exercises take place there on a regular basis, involving NATO countries with tactical American nuclear weapons on their territories, with the involvement of their servicemen, their combat aircraft and other means of delivery”.

• Putin: “We are cooperating in three areas: electric power, oil and gas, and nuclear power. We have made decisions in each of these areas, and everything is working. As for oil and gas, there are current issues, which we have discussed in detail today. There are no unresolved issues. As for gas, we have agreed on all the parameters for the next few years. Yes, beyond this horizon it will be necessary to reach solutions that would meet the interests of both our Belarusian friends and the Russian economy. The work is going on as planned.

• Putin: “As for the negotiation process [with Ukraine], I have said this many times. I would like to emphasize it once again here in Minsk: Russia has never given up on these negotiations. Moreover, we started these negotiations in Belarus at one time and then moved them, at the request of the Ukrainian side, to Turkey, to Istanbul. We came to agreements, we came to a draft agreement, moreover, the head of the negotiating group from the Ukrainian side initialed an extract of these possible agreements, that is, in principle, the Ukrainian side was generally satisfied with it, and the Russian side was also satisfied with it. There were some points that needed to be finalized, but on the whole, I repeat, if the Ukrainian side signs this document, it means that the Ukrainian side was satisfied with it.

• Putin: “For well-known reasons, after the former British prime minister arrived in Kiev, the Ukrainian side threw out these agreements and stopped implementing them. Moreover, they announced that the negotiations were being terminated – they said it publicly, it was not us who terminated these negotiations, they terminated them – and forbade themselves to conduct these negotiations further. We did not forbid anyone, we are in favor of negotiations.

• Putin: “After that, again at the instigation of their Western sponsors and masters, the goal was set – to achieve a strategic defeat of Russia and victory over Russia on the battlefield. We see now that there is renewed talk that we should return to negotiations. Let them return. But they should return not on the basis of what one country wants, but on the basis of the agreements of principle that were reached during the difficult negotiations in Belarus and Turkey, and on the basis of today’s realities on the ground. We are ready for this.

• Putin: “With whom to negotiate? This is certainly not an idle question, I agree with you. Of course, we are aware that the legitimacy of the current head of state is over. I think that one of the goals of the conference that has been announced, the conference in Switzerland, is precisely to have the Western community and the sponsors of the current Kiev regime confirm the legitimacy of the incumbent head of state, or no longer the incumbent head of state”.

• Putin: “But these PR steps, they have no significance for legal documents. We will, of course, need, if it comes to that, and I assume that peace talks must be resumed, not with ultimatums, but with common sense, and they must be based on common sense. But if it comes to that, of course, we need to understand who we need and can deal with in order to get to the signing of legally binding documents, and then we have to be absolutely sure that we are dealing with legitimate authorities. This question should be answered in Ukraine itself, first of all, I think, from the position of the parliament, the Constitutional Court or some other authorities”.

• Lukashenka: “As for the expiration of Vladimir Zelenski’s term of office, there is no legal purity here and cannot be, because democracy is deep there, you understand, everything is strangled there. I am often reproached here or we are often reproached that we are dictators or someone else is “stitched” to it. This is democracy: neither the Constitutional Court nor other courts can say anything. Therefore, the legal purity that Vladimir Vladimirovich was talking about is not there and cannot be in this situation.

• Lukashenko: “As for war and peace – the main issues that Vladimir Vladimirovich also pointed out – what does it matter? Neither the current president nor the future one, I think, will solve these big issues facing the state of Ukraine, the people of Ukraine. You know who will decide: a lot of things have already been decided over the ocean, and what is not decided, they will decide later. The President of Russia has just given evidence of this. When who knows who came, who knows who, ordered, crossed out the agreements that were put on paper and initialed – that was the result. I deeply analyzed these problems with Vladimir Alexandrovich’s authority, and now I realize that it’s all useless.

• Lukashenka: “As for the real force in Ukraine, you know Ukraine well, the society before the [so-called] “SWO” and now. There are more of these forces there, and everyone imagines himself a hero – forces whose position we support in principle and whom we do not support. Again, democracy is there. There are enough people there today, both among the military and civilians, who want to lead the country and lead it in a new way to war and against war.

• Lukashenko: “As for the death of our good friend. I have met with Mr. Raisi more than once and I think that the President of Russia will support me, he is a normal, kind person who had a frank and honest dialogue with us and was concerned about the development of his own state and protection of the interests of his own people.”

• Lukashenko: “How it was there, what happened and so on – a lot is being said about it now. I think Iran is such a country that will figure out what happened there. But as a person, not a president, I will say: the disgusting, repulsive position of the United States led to this. I am referring first of all to the sanctions. These scoundrels had no right to impose sanctions on ships, planes, helicopters and other [transportation] that carry people. They imposed sanctions, I think, against ships in Russia, against us, against my, let’s say, airplane. They won’t get Vladimir Vladimirovich because he has a Russian airplane, but here they have imposed these sanctions.

Totals/Predictions:

This is the second meeting of the leaders of Russia and Belarus in May 2024. Importantly, a number of high-ranking figures – the Russian defense and foreign ministers, the head of Rosatom, and others – arrived in Minsk with Putin. Many observers have the impression that in addition to the stated goals (monitoring military exercises with simulated use of tactical nuclear weapons), the meeting was also about the possible involvement of Belarus in joint military actions with Russia in the Ukrainian direction. 

Just before Putin’s arrival, Lukashenka replaced the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. Major General Pavel Muraveiko, who is considered to be the creation of Lieutenant General Alexander Volfovich, the State Secretary of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus, became the new chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. Volfovich is considered one of the most pro-Russian politicians, and he managed to form a pro-Russian lobby in the army (Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin belongs to the same group). 

It is known that during the visit they discussed the creation of new Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus (in close proximity to the borders of Ukraine), as well as the construction of a new reactor of the Belarusian nuclear power plant (which is alarming for the Lithuanian leadership, as the plant is being built in close proximity to Vilnius). 

The visit of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to Minsk during the Russian delegation’s stay there was a mystery. Most likely, Putin decided to organize a “trolling” of the Ukrainian leadership, showing that Moscow considers Vladimir Zelensky’s level of legitimacy to be roughly at the level of Yanukovych’s legitimacy. Especially since Putin explicitly stated that he did not consider Zelensky to be a legitimate president after May 21. At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko took a different position, saying that there “cannot be unambiguity” when it comes to the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president. Obviously, Lukashenka does not give up hope to act as a mediator in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.     

7. Vladimir Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan

On Sunday, May 26, at the invitation of President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Vladimir Putin arrived in Uzbekistan for a two-day state visit.

During the planned talks, the sides plan to discuss further development of Russian-Uzbekistan relations, strategic partnership and alliance. An exchange of views on topical regional issues is also planned.

Also on Monday, May 27, Vladimir Putin and Shavkat Mirziyoyev plan to take part in the first meeting of the Council of Regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Uzbekistan. A number of bilateral documents are planned to be signed following the visit.

It should be noted that on Tuesday, May 21, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. During the conversation, the parties discussed the preparations for the upcoming state visit of the Russian president to Uzbekistan. Also, in this context, the parties touched upon a number of practical issues of further development of bilateral cooperation, including in the trade and economic sphere.

It is also noted that Putin shared his impressions of the talks with the Chinese leadership just held in Beijing. Both sides reaffirmed the desire to further consistently strengthen relations of alliance and strategic partnership between Russia and Uzbekistan.

Totals/Predictions:

A very important visit from the point of view of Russia’s interests. Uzbekistan today is an important trade and economic partner of Russia, developing joint energy, logistics and environmental programs. At the same time, the development of relations with Uzbekistan is a key to controlling processes in Central Asia and an element of additional influence on Kazakhstan. 

In addition, the Russian factor has recently played an important role in the conflict of elites in Uzbekistan (the so-called “Usmanov factor”). Therefore, Putin is obviously taking on the role of solving the Usmanov issue and at the same time solving for Tashkent the issue of the dangerous neighborhood of the Afghan Taliban. Russia is also not interested in the intensification of American, British and French influence in the region, as well as excessive Chinese influence. Much depends on this visit for the stability of Russian policy in its “southern underbelly,” which is extremely vulnerable and unpredictable.