Russia: weekly report (07.05-12.05)

1. Putin’s inauguration

On Tuesday, May 7, the Kremlin hosted the official ceremony of Vladimir Putin’s assumption of the office of the Russian president.

In accordance with Article 82 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, in the presence of members of the Federation Council, deputies of the State Duma and judges of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin took the oath of office to the people of Russia. After that, Chairman of the Constitutional Court Valery Zorkin announced Vladimir Putin’s assumption of the office of President of the Russian Federation.

Later, the Presidential Regiment was presented to Vladimir Putin on Sobornaya Square on the occasion of his assumption of office. The head of state congratulated the regiment on the 88th anniversary of its formation. After the official part, Patriarch Kirill served a thanksgiving prayer service in the Annunciation Cathedral of the Kremlin. The Russian president also made an official speech on the occasion of his inauguration.

Key Abstracts:

• “In these solemn and responsible minutes of assuming the office of the President, I want to cordially thank the citizens of Russia in all regions of our country, the inhabitants of our historical lands who have defended the right to be together with the Motherland. I want to bow to our heroes, participants of the special military operation, all those who are fighting for the Fatherland. Once again, I thank you for the trust and support you have given me, and now I am addressing every citizen of Russia”.

• “I have just recited the words of the presidential oath. Its text concentrates the essence of the highest purpose of the head of state – to protect Russia and serve our people. I understand that this is a great honor, duty and sacred duty. This is what defined the meaning and content of my work in previous years. I assure you that I will continue to place the interests and security of the people of Russia above all else.

• “You, the citizens of Russia, have confirmed the correctness of the country’s course. This is of great importance precisely now, when we are facing serious challenges. I see in this a deep understanding of our common historical goals, a determination to steadfastly defend our choice, our values, freedom and the national interests of Russia. I am confident that we will pass through this difficult, milestone period with dignity, become even stronger and will definitely implement long-term plans and large-scale projects aimed at achieving development goals.

• “We have been and will continue to be open to strengthening good relations with all countries that see Russia as a reliable and honest partner. And this is indeed the world majority. We are not refusing dialog with Western states. The choice is up to them: whether they intend to continue to try to hold back Russia’s development, to continue their policy of aggression and unceasing pressure on our country over the years, or to seek a path to cooperation and peace. I repeat: a conversation, including on issues of security and strategic stability, is possible. But not from a position of strength, without any arrogance, arrogance and our own exceptionalism, but only on an equal footing, respecting each other’s interests.

• “Together with our partners in Eurasian integration, with other sovereign centers of development, we will continue to work on the formation of a multipolar world order, an equal and indivisible security system. In a complex world that is changing rapidly, we must be self-sufficient and competitive, opening new horizons for Russia, as has happened many times in our history. But it is important for us to remember its lessons, not to forget the tragic cost of internal turmoil and upheaval. Therefore, our state and socio-political system must be strong and absolutely resistant to any challenges and threats, ensure the progressivity and stability of development, unity and independence of the country”.

• “We see how the atmosphere in society has changed, how reliability, mutual responsibility, sincerity, decency, nobility and courage are highly valued today. I will do my utmost to ensure that people who have shown their best human and professional qualities, who have proved their loyalty to the Fatherland by deeds, take leading positions in state administration, in the economy – in all spheres”.

• “Today, in fact, we are holding an answer to our thousand-year history and our ancestors. They took seemingly inaccessible heights, because they always put the Motherland first, knew that it is possible to achieve truly great goals only together with their country and their people, and created a world power, our Fatherland, and achieved such triumphs that inspire us today”.

Totals/Predictions:

Vladimir Putin’s inauguration took place without any special surprises and was more of a symbolic action. The main discussion was not so much the question of meanings – even the inauguration speech had little content, not to mention the ritual itself. The main thesis of the speech – People Saving – looks like nonsense in modern Russia. More attention was paid to how many foreign guests arrived at the inauguration, which ambassadors came, and which ones ignored the ceremony. The appearance of certain characters of contemporary Russian politics was also discussed, primarily in an attempt to understand the upcoming personnel reshuffles in the government. The inauguration procedure itself had no great significance for contemporary political life, despite the fact that Valentina Matvienko, the speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, even proposed that Inauguration Day be declared a national holiday and a day off.

2. Meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council 

On Wednesday, May 8, the Kremlin hosted a jubilee meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, timed to coincide with the tenth anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union.

The meeting was narrowly attended by leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union member countries: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, President of Kazakhstan Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Zhaparov, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, as well as Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission Bakytzhan Sagintayev.

The heads of observer states joined the work of the EEU during the enlarged meeting: President of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez and President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as Secretary General of the Commonwealth of Independent States Sergey Lebedev.

A package of documents was signed as a result of the meeting:

1. Decision “On launching negotiations with Mongolia on concluding a temporary trade agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union and its member states, on the one hand, and Mongolia, on the other hand”.

2. Decision “On Amending the Regulations of the Eurasian Economic Commission”.

3. Decision “On Amendments to the Decision of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council No. 31 of December 20, 2019”.

4. Decision “On issues related to the signing of the Protocol on the electronic exchange of information between the Eurasian Economic Union and its member states, on the one hand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, on the other hand, within the framework of the electronic system of certification and verification of origin of goods”.

5. Decision “On the Medal “10 Years of the Eurasian Economic Union”.

6. Order “On the submission of information in accordance with subparagraph 5 of paragraph 20 of the Protocol on Uniform Principles and Rules for the Regulation of Natural Monopolies (Annex No. 20 to the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of May 29, 2014)”.

7. Order “On the Time and Place of the Regular Meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council”.

Key theses from Putin’s speech during a narrow session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council:

• “We note with satisfaction that over the past decade our union has established itself as one of the independent and self-sufficient centers of the emerging multipolar world. The Eurasian Union today is an effective and dynamic integration structure, the activities of which contribute to the growth of trade and investment exchanges, the intensification of business contacts, the expansion of cooperation ties, which ultimately brings real benefits to each of the members of our association.”

• “Economic indicators speak for themselves: in 10 years, the combined GDP of the Eurasian Union states is estimated to have increased from 1.6 to 2.5 trillion dollars. Trade turnover with third countries has increased by 60 percent, from $579 billion to $923 billion, and the volume of mutual trade has almost doubled, from $45 billion to $89 billion, with more than 90 percent of settlements already made in national currencies. It is characteristic that the positive macroeconomic dynamics continues this year. This is exactly what we were talking to our colleagues about before entering the hall.

• “I would like to emphasize that Russia highly values the mutually beneficial multifaceted ties with its Eurasian Economic Community partners, and we sincerely seek further joint work on the comprehensive development and strengthening of our integration association. I am convinced that all colleagues present here share this spirit.

Key theses from the speech of the participants of the enlarged meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council:

• Putin: “Our meeting today is timed to coincide with the 10th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the Establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union. This is indeed a fundamental document, guided by which the member states of the union have jointly done a large-scale work on deepening Eurasian integration, building a common market and forming a unique supranational system of economic regulation”.

• Putin: “Thanks to the elimination of many trade and administrative barriers, a high degree of freedom of movement of goods has been ensured. The G5 countries have switched to common technical, sanitary, veterinary and phytosanitary norms and standards. The Eurasian Union has shown its effectiveness in the face of new challenges, including those related to the policy of sanctions pursued by some countries and the dismantling of many basic foundations of international trade.

• Putin: “Much has been done and continues to be done to promote industrial cooperation, import substitution and strengthen the technological sovereignty of the member states of the association. In particular, last year, at the initiative of the Russian presidency, a mechanism was launched for budget financing of science-intensive projects implemented by enterprises from Eurasian Economic Community countries.

• Putin: “Much attention in the Eurasian Union is invariably paid to food security and the development of the agro-industrial complex of our states. Our joint efforts have successfully solved the problem of an independent, uninterrupted supply of foodstuffs and vital agricultural products to the domestic market”.

• Putin: “In general, digitalization has become one of the priorities of the integration agenda. A unified information system that accumulates data on foreign economic activity is being successfully developed within the Eurasian Economic Community. Unified standards for the exchange of electronic data have been developed and applied, and agreed rules for digital commerce are in place. Mutual recognition of electronic signatures used in Eurasian Economic Community countries would help to increase the efficiency of the common market and make business processes even faster and more convenient for entrepreneurs and consumers”.

• Putin: “As has been emphasized many times, the Eurasian Economic Union and all our integration activities are attracting the attention of a growing number of international players. Many foreign states and major regional structures, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, have shown interest in developing ties with our association”.

• Pashinyan: “It is clear that the regulatory framework of the EAEU continues to be formed and this process is far from being finalized. It is important that it is being formed within the framework of economic logic. Only on the basis of respect for the interests of the partner countries and the search for constructive solutions that meet the interests of each member state, we will be able to maintain the effectiveness of the EAEU functioning”.

• Pashinyan: “We consider it necessary to focus our efforts to take into account the national priorities of socio-economic development. Our cooperation should work in the interests of the citizens and businesses of our countries, contribute to the improvement of their well-being and modernization of national economies”.

• Pashinyan: “We attach special importance to the creation of a legal framework ensuring the trade and economic interests of the member states’ entrepreneurs in the global trade. In this context, we consider it important to sign a protocol on electronic exchange of information between the EAEU member states and Vietnam, which will increase the volume of mutual trade between the partner countries”.

• Pashinyan: “The Armenian side also supports the adoption of a package of documents envisaging the start of negotiations with one of our partners in Asia – Mongolia. Undoubtedly, the signing of the temporary trade agreement will provide new opportunities for the expansion of trade-economic and cooperative interaction”.

• Pashinyan: “The development of transportation infrastructures will give an additional impetus to the growth of trade turnover between our countries. In this context, I will once again emphasize the “Crossroads of the World” project initiated by the Government of the Republic of Armenia, which aims to create the necessary logistical conditions for the development of trade and economic ties between all interested states on the basis of full respect for the sovereignty, jurisdictions of states, parity and reciprocity”.

• Lukashenko: “Even by the strictest account, we can state that the first 10 years have been quite successful; we have practically reached the final stage of the Strategy-2025 implementation. The measures we have taken have objectively contributed to the increase in mutual trade of the Union member states: by the end of 2023, its growth rate amounted to almost 105 percent, in absolute figures – about 90 billion dollars. And this is despite the continuing difficult situation in the world markets”.

• Lukashenka: “Last year fundamental decisions were made to financially support industrial cooperation. Despite this, no serious business activity has been observed so far. At the same time, I would like to note once again that working under sanctions pressure requires immediate decisions, quick decisions. Leaders of the participating countries make such decisions in most cases, but they are not always implemented quickly. I would like to draw the attention of all present that such sluggishness really affects the financial results of our enterprises and leads to tougher competition from third countries”.

• Lukashenka: “The second thing is unimpeded access to public procurement. Their volume in our countries amounts to almost 200 billion dollars, state purchases. In fact, the states as buyers of goods, works, services fully manage this market, as well as determine the procurement policy and purchase channels. If we do manage, let us ensure mutual access, at least where products manufactured in the EAEU can become an effective source of meeting state needs”.

• Lukashenka: “The third is digitalization. We need to focus on the early recognition of electronic digital signature. We have been talking about it for years. All the agreements in principle have been reached long ago, but the wreck is still there. This is not a political, but a technical issue, which often becomes an insurmountable barrier to the participation of Eurasian business in the economic processes of the countries of the Union. I believe it is necessary to complete this work as soon as possible. I emphasize once again: this is a technical issue.

• Lukashenko: “The fourth is technical regulation. This area is closely related to the previous issue. The work on the technical solution is at the final stage; all that remains is to transfer technical regulation into the same digital format. I am sure that no one in this hall needs to be convinced that digitalization of technical regulation will provide our industry with additional opportunities for development, will simplify the receipt of information and the processes of certification and standardization.

• Lukashenko: “Fifth, transportation services, which the presiding officer has just mentioned. Here I would like to note the generally well-coordinated work both at the national and supranational levels. We have managed to find solutions on alternative routes for the supply of goods, to agree, albeit temporarily, on interconnection and transshipment, to agree on new conditions for border crossing. Nevertheless, the Commission needs to establish a permanent information exchange channel with the SCO countries, primarily with China. This is necessary for more accurate management of cargo flows and organization of efficient work of border crossings.

• Tokayev: “Ten years ago, the historic Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union was signed in Astana. In a relatively short period of time, our Union has transformed into an important and promising integration association in the international space. More than a thousand different regulatory documents have been adopted through joint efforts. The correctness of the chosen vector of development of our union is confirmed by the macroeconomic results of the decade. Thus, Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with the member countries of the Union increased 1.7 times, reaching 28.5 billion dollars, and exports more than doubled”.

• Tokayev: “According to World Bank estimates, the growth rate of global gross domestic product in the first half of this decade may be the lowest in 30 years. If the international community does not take an effective solution, this period may go down in history as a decade of missed opportunities. Undoubtedly, this is a great challenge for the Eurasian Economic Union, which is an integral part of the global economy. We will have to use all our reserves and solve the tasks set when the Union was established.

• Tokayev: “Another, no less important task is the restructuring of foreign trade. It is obvious that our union has huge opportunities to expand its niche in the global market. I propose to instruct the Eurasian Economic Commission to work out systematic solutions to strengthen the potential of the union on the external circuit. It is necessary to create the appropriate conditions for more active access of Eurasian products to foreign markets. It is extremely important to ensure the unimpeded transit of goods to third countries”.

• Tokayev: “Against the backdrop of the transformation of the global economy, expanding the network of free trade agreements with third countries is of particular importance for the Eurasian Economic Union. This will maximize the access of our exporters to new markets and integrate them into regional and global production chains. Kazakhstan certainly welcomes the decision to start negotiations with Mongolia to conclude a temporary trade agreement”.

• Tokayev: “Within the framework of the global initiative “One Belt, One Road”, a Kazakh terminal has been built in the Chinese city of Xi’an, where up to 40 percent of the volume of container transportation along the China-Europe route is formed. There are also plans to launch five cross-border transportation and logistics hubs on the borders with Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and on the Caspian Sea. In addition, a large-scale modernization of international road checkpoints has been launched along the entire perimeter of the country. These comprehensive infrastructure solutions, in our opinion, will contribute to further interfacing and expanding the capacity of Eurasian transportation arteries”.

• Tokayev: “Another important area is strengthening food security. Everyone knows that the Eurasian region has one of the highest production, resource and export potentials in the world. With the growing world population and limited resources in other macro-regions, we have the opportunity to provide food for about 600 million people. At the same time, the Union’s role in ensuring global food security will only increase. Our strategic vision is to transform the agro-industrial complex into a high-tech industry. For this purpose, it is crucial to take concerted measures to introduce breakthrough innovative technologies based on artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology and agro-science”.

• Zhoparov: “Over the 10 years of its existence, the Eurasian Economic Union has emerged as one of the key regional associations capable of maintaining and developing economic integration for the sake of stability of member states’ economies and growth in the welfare of their citizens. Many will agree with me: being in one union, we have been able to maintain macroeconomic stability, ensure food and energy security in the region, reduce unemployment, maintain sustainable growth of production and enter new markets. This is confirmed by statistical data”.

• Zhoparov: “The economy of the Union showed strong growth last year. According to the results of 2023, the growth of gross domestic product amounted to 3.8 percent, with industrial production increasing by 3.7 percent. There were construction works with growth of 8.6 percent, retail trade turnover grew by 6.6 percent, investments in fixed assets in our countries grew by 10.3 percent.”

• Zhoparov: “The GDP of the Kyrgyz Republic grew by 6.2 percent at the end of last year, overcame the historical milestone of almost 1.3 trillion soms, and at the end of the first quarter of this year, GDP growth amounted to 8.8 percent”.

• Zhoparov: “Further development of Eurasian economic integration, including the creation of a single market for goods, services without barriers and exceptions, common energy markets, ensuring freedom of movement of labor resources, have undoubtedly been and remain priorities for the Kyrgyz Republic. We intend to continue active work to strengthen equal, mutually beneficial and friendly relations between the member States of the Union”.

• Zhoparov: “The situation in the international arena remains complex, and we continue to be in the process of large-scale transformation caused by external unfavorable factors. Against the background of serious deviations in the functioning of the global trading system, economic activity is shifting from west to east and from north to south. In this regard, there is a need to build the necessary financial, logistical and commodity-conducting infrastructure that meets modern requirements. This undoubtedly requires significant investments and unconventional approaches, and most importantly, joint and coordinated actions in the search for alternative supply chains. In this sense, I would like to emphasize the particular importance of pairing the EAEU and China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The Kyrgyz Republic is also making great efforts to increase the transport connectivity of its member states, including the development of the North-South transport corridor.

• Zhoparov: “Design work on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railroad is in the active phase. Agreements have been reached to open new and expand the capacity of existing checkpoints with the People’s Republic of China. In addition, all 14 checkpoints of the Kyrgyz Republic on the customs border of the Union have been fully equipped and equipped. Obligations of the Kyrgyz Republic undertaken upon accession to the EAEU have been fulfilled in full”.

• Zhoparov: “Last year we decided to finance cooperation projects. I believe that the practical launch of this mechanism should meet our expectations in terms of increasing investment cooperation, support and stimulation of knowledge-intensive production and industrial capacities, as well as for technology transfer. This mechanism should help to increase the competitiveness of the Union’s cooperative goods and their further entry into foreign markets. In parallel, I propose to work on improving the financing mechanism for other priority sectors of the economy”.

• Diaz-Canel Bermudez: “As we have repeatedly stated, the Cuban government attaches great importance to economic, commercial, financial relations and partnership with the Eurasian Economic Union and its member states, given the historical ties of friendship and cooperation that unite us with this group of countries.”

• Diaz-Canel Bermudez: “At the same time, I echo the words of previous speakers in expressing my gratitude to the Eurasian Economic Commission and the Government of the Russian Federation for taking the initiative to organize this summit in circumstances as complex and decisive as those that the world is currently experiencing. The tense situation in several parts of the world is a source of concern for the international community and encourages us to act in order to contribute to the process of establishing a new, more just, inclusive and equitable world order. Cuba notes that the significant results achieved over ten years of activity in all areas of interaction prove that the EAEU is a successful, attractive and sustainable integration process. This is clearly demonstrated by the macroeconomic indicators that have been achieved, such as GDP growth of 2.4 trillion dollars, the almost doubling of mutual trade between member states and a 60 percent increase in foreign trade turnover, to name just a few significant data”.

• Diaz-Canel Bermúdez: “Dear colleagues, Cuba, as an observer State, reaffirms its desire and interest to increase its participation in the mechanisms of the Union in order to achieve deeper integration. I sincerely believe that we need to improve coordination to give impetus to joint projects in areas of mutual interest. In this regard, it is imperative to encourage more systematic and practical interaction between line ministries and institutions of the commission, as well as member, observer states. This will not be difficult. The National Plan of Socio-Economic Development of our country for the period until 2030 coincides in many aspects with the priorities in the short and long term contained in the EAEU Declaration, especially with regard to the role of science and innovation”.

• Diaz-Canel Bermudez: “As you know, Cuba attaches great importance to a system of government administration based on science and innovation. Although this requires a lot of preparation and training, I can say that we are making progress in implementing this process. Undoubtedly, the way to develop nations is through knowledge. That is why we intend to develop this area of cooperation in our relations with the EAEU.

• Diaz-Canel Bermudez: “We also favor the promotion of exchanges between the structures of the Eurasian Economic Commission, entrepreneurs of the Union and Cuba in order to establish direct links to identify interests in trade, partnership and foreign direct investment. It is worth noting the resumption of exchanges at the business level between the Cuban Chamber of Commerce and the EAEU Business Council, which has made it possible to define a mechanism for joint work to encourage the revitalization of relations between enterprises.”

• Mirziyoyev: “Today, my colleagues have assessed the difficult situation in the world and emphasized the need to further expand partnership in order to overcome modern challenges. I believe that in the current realities, support and stimulation of trade and economic ties between our countries, promotion of cooperation projects and creation of conditions for the growth of mutual investments are of paramount importance”.

• Mirziyoyev: “One example of such cooperation is the traditional international exhibition Innoprom, which was successfully held last month in Tashkent. More than two thousand leading enterprises of our countries took part in it, and agreements on hundreds of new cooperation projects were reached. Today, this forum has become an effective platform for the development of Uzbekistan’s business dialog with Russia and other states of the Eurasian Economic Union. We intend to expand this platform and attract more and more companies, including those from other partner countries, including Cuba, Iran, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Mongolia, Vietnam and Indonesia”.

• Mirziyoyev: “In general, over the three years of Uzbekistan’s cooperation with the EAEU in the observer status, the volume of mutually beneficial trade turnover has grown by 60 percent, primarily due to an increase in the supply of industrial products. At the same time, the share of settlements in national currencies is increasing. Over one thousand joint ventures and projects have been launched. The volume of cargo transportation is growing. The frequency of regular air flights has doubled. Together with the Eurasian Economic Commission, we have held three high-level working group meetings and fully implemented the activities of the joint plan. We have also joined industry projects and programs in the field of digitalization of trade and cargo transportation in the area of e-commerce, climate agenda”.

Totals/Predictions:

The meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Council did not cause a big sensation. Consideration of the issue of closer involvement of Mongolia in the common economic processes and the presence of the Cuban leader at the Council, yes, caused interest, but did not become a sensation. More attention was focused on how Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan would behave. His speech at the Council meeting was not confrontational, which means that there is confidence that Armenia will not make demarches (as some analysts predicted). The EAEU Heads of State spoke in a rather bravura manner, and the Council meeting itself did not become a landmark.

3. Vladimir Putin meets with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

On Wednesday, May 8, Vladimir Putin met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the Kremlin on the sidelines of the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. The meeting was the first of the current year. According to official data, the sides discussed the current situation in bilateral relations, as well as the security situation in the region. 

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “We have a jubilee summit, the 10th anniversary of EurasEC. During this time, as we just said before entering this hall, cooperation within the framework of this international organization has been very positive for all our countries, including Russia and Armenia. For Armenia, the increase in the trade turnover with the Eurasian Economic Community since 2015 has been very significant – the trade turnover of Armenia with the Eurasian Economic Community has increased 14 times.

• Putin: “As for bilateral relations, they are also developing very successfully. We always focus first of all on economic cooperation. Last year the growth of trade turnover amounted to a very significant value, and it is largely due to the increase in imports; if you mean Armenian exports in our direction. And the trade turnover reached more than 7 billion dollars. We have never had such a volume in our trade and economic ties before.

• Putin: “Of course, there are issues related not only to the growth of trade turnover. There are issues related to security in the region. We will not talk about this in detail in the open, but there is an opportunity to talk about the whole range of our relations, including regional security issues, on the margins of the Eurasian Economic Union.

• Pashinyan: “Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, first of all, let me thank you for the warm reception and excellent organization of the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council.”

• Pashinyan: “The last time we met was last December. Since then, of course, we have accumulated issues that need to be discussed. Of course, we have already discussed the economic bloc during the Council meeting. And now I hope and I am sure that we will discuss important issues of bilateral relations, regional issues”.

Totals/Predictions:

The talks between Putin and Pashinyan are particularly important in the context of recent Russian-Armenian relations. Official Yerevan is very jealous of the rapprochement between Russia and Azerbaijan. At the level of the Armenian leadership there have been statements hinting that Russia has betrayed Armenia and “surrendered” the previous agreements to Istanbul and Baku. Russia has repeatedly accused Armenia of acting against Russian interests in the international arena. As a result, Putin and Pashinyan needed to communicate in a calm atmosphere, laying their cards on the table. Judging by the tone of Pashinyan’s speeches, Yerevan does not intend to escalate the conflict with Moscow – at least at this stage. Thus, we can assume that the conflict is (partially) over. 

4. Vladimir Putin meets with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev

Vladimir Putin met with Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in the Kremlin on Wednesday, May 8, as part of a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. According to official data, the main topic of the meeting was the discussion of bilateral economic relations. 

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “All agencies, prime ministers are fixated on our trade agreements. They are all being fulfilled. This year we are going to utilize five billion, each minister has been assigned who is responsible for what. I also met with Denis Manturov today, he had four questions, and we solved them all as we went along.

• Putin: “Spring, soon summer – we are waiting for fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan, just like last year. It is good for you and for us. This keeps prices up, prevents them from rising”.

• Mirziyoyev: “[Head of the Republic of Tatarstan] Rustam Minnikhanov was in our southern regions and was simply surprised when he was shown cabbage, uruk, garlic, fresh onions. When he arrived, he was shocked in general. He said: why do we buy abroad, here it is cheap and ecologically clean. Most importantly, the price is normal.

• Mirziyoyev: “I also said about Agroexpress. I also said in my speech. We have an opportunity to saturate the Russian market with agricultural products”.

Totals/Predictions:

Relations with Uzbekistan, rather complicated and inconsistent in the noughties, rather quickly took on new meanings in the twenties, under President Mirziyoyev. Central Asia’s most dynamically developing state is interested in investment and cooperation with Russia (as well as China). Mirziyoyev is building a robust policy of balances and equilibriums in the region, but is also actively attracting Russian capital into Uzbekistan’s economy. Alisher Usmanov, a Russian oligarch and relative of Mirziyoyev, plays an important role in these processes. Uzbekistan is also interested in defense against possible aggression from the Afghan Taliban, which can only be countered by a series of agreements with Russia and China, which have influence over Kabul. In fact, Uzbekistan holds the “golden share” in the region. Mirziyoyev’s meeting with Putin is an important moment that shows Uzbekistan will continue to be in close partnership with Russia, competing in loyalty with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.

5. Victory Parade on Red Square

On Thursday, May 10, the traditional military parade in honor of the 79th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945 took place on Red Square. 

Some foreign leaders took part in the parade: President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Zhaparov, President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, President of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau Oumarou Sissokou Embalo, President of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic Thongloun Sisoulith.

Also, Vladimir Putin addressed the participants and guests of the parade with a traditional congratulatory speech. 

Key Abstracts:

• “Today we see how the truth about the Second World War is trying to be distorted. It disturbs those who are accustomed to building their essentially colonial policy on hypocrisy and lies. They demolish memorials to the true fighters against Nazism, put on pedestals the traitors and collaborators of Hitler, erase the memory of the heroism and nobility of the soldiers-liberators, of the great sacrifice they made in the name of life”.

• “Revanchism, mockery of history, and the desire to justify the current followers of the Nazis are part of the general policy of Western elites to foment more and more regional conflicts, inter-ethnic and inter-religious hostility, and to contain sovereign, independent centers of world development. We reject the claims of any state or alliance to exclusivity, and we know where the exorbitance of such ambitions leads. Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash, but at the same time we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are always on alert.

• “The West would like to forget the lessons of the Second World War, while we remember that the fate of mankind was decided in the grandiose battles of Moscow and Leningrad, Rzhev, Stalingrad, Kursk and Kharkov, at Minsk, Smolensk and Kiev, in heavy bloody battles from Murmansk to the Caucasus and Crimea.”

• “Today, on Victory Day, we realize it even more acutely and clearly, and always look up to the generation of winners – brave, noble, wise, their ability to preserve friendship and endure hardships, always be confident in themselves and in their country, sincerely and selflessly love the Motherland”.

• “We celebrate Victory Day under the conditions of the [so-called] ‘special military operation’. All its participants – those on the front line, on the line of contact – are our heroes. We bow before your steadfastness and self-sacrifice, selflessness. All Russia is with you!”.

Totals/Predictions:

The Victory Parade in 2024 was intended to show devotion to tradition. Victory over Hitler’s Germany is the most important component of modern Russian ideology. However, the significance of the holiday is gradually being lost – in the measure of the cooling of relations with European countries and the turn to the East. Previously, Victory Day was not only a day of remembrance of the victims and the victors – it was also a day to remind the European states liberated by the Red Army, as well as allies in the anti-Hitler coalition, of the influence of the USSR and Russia on political processes in Europe. Now, in the conditions of confrontation with NATO, this holiday is held under the unspoken slogan “We can do it again”. But if only the current political processes in the world move to a different plane, Russia finally closes its illusions about advancing into Europe, and relations with China strengthen, the ideological vector will be shifted from May 9 to September 2, the day of Japan’s surrender, and in this process the USSR also played the most decisive role (the surrender of the Kwantung Army and the capture of Harbin was more important for the surrender than the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki). 

6. Vladimir Putin meets with Denis Manturov and Sergey Chemezov

On Saturday, May 11, Vladimir Putin held a working meeting with Acting Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and Sergey Chemezov, CEO of Rostec State Corporation. 

In fact, the main topic of the meeting was the reappointment of Denis Manturov as Vice Prime Minister in the new government. The participants of the meeting also discussed the situation in industry and further strategy for its development. 

Key Abstracts:

• Putin: “Quite recently at a meeting with the Government – Denis Valentinovich heard what I was talking about – I spoke about making sure that until the new Government is formed, we do not have any disruptions in the current work. The complex that Denis Valentinovich is involved in – the entire industry, both defense and civilian – everything is concentrated here”.

• Putin: “A considerable amount of work is being done in this area within Rostec, and I would like to talk to you now about how this work is being organized now and how we plan to organize it in the near future. I know that a lot has been done, everything is in place, everything is functioning, but there are some issues that require special attention. We will focus on them today.

Totals/Predictions:

The meeting with Manturov and Chemezov had the main goal of reformatting the government and defining the role of Chemezov’s clientele in the new system of relations. Manturov was promoted and brought another strong figure into the government – Anton Alikhanov. This means that Chemezov must cede certain posts to representatives of other groups. Most likely we are talking about Anton Vaino, head of the Presidential Administration, who may be sent to diplomatic work. Manturov will concentrate in his hands a very important sector of work – practically he will be responsible for the lion’s share of the economy. And it is important that there be no friction between Prime Minister Mishustin and Deputy Prime Minister Manturov in the government. 

7. Destruction of a residential building in Belgorod

On Sunday, May 12, during the massive shelling of Belgorod, the entrance of an apartment building on Shchorsa Street collapsed, killing at least 12 people. It is also reported that about 20 more people were seriously injured and wounded. 

At the same time, the governor of Belgorod Region blamed the shelling of the apartment building on the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, a number of factors and video recordings from the scene indicate that the house could have been hit either by an air defense shell or a Russian missile. Some sources prove that the explosion was carried out inside the house and call this situation another terrorist attack. 

At the same time, the events themselves have already given the Russian authorities a reason to declare the need to intensify military operations in Kharkiv and Sumy regions in order to create a so-called “sanitary zone” on the border with Russia. 

Totals/Predictions:

The destruction of a residential building in Belgorod is already causing a lot of controversy: is it really a Ukrainian missile? Its debris? Or was it an explosion inspired by Russian security services. Whatever it is, but Russia has its own version of events, it has been voiced, Ukraine has already been blamed for the strike. Therefore, the strike on Belgorod may serve as a pretext for further escalation of Russia’s offensive actions in the Ukrainian direction and justification for the need to create a “sanitary zone” on the border with Ukraine (which we have seen in recent days).