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Saturday, July 20, 2024

Russia: Weekly Report (03.07-09.07)

This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Russia continues to strengthen its engagement with other major regional players. Active interaction with China, India and Iran demonstrates that building a new regional policy is beginning to bear fruit, creating the outlines of a new multipolar world. In fact, splitting the world community into several camps has become irreversible. Now we can talk not so much about a return to the old, monopolar Pax Americana but to a series of international treaties that would consolidate the status quo and define the rules for interaction between groups of states. At the same time, it is essential to note that Russia cannot play a key role in such a world order. Its economy does not compete with China or India, and its resource base, although attractive, is not becoming strategically important.
  • Putin continues to focus on social issues, which is understandable to ordinary Russians: despite sanctions and fighting, we are doing well in the economy, we are strong in social issues, and so on. The figures for combating unemployment are achieved, among other things, through mobilisation actions and the influx of personnel to military-industrial complex enterprises. In fact, it is not the number that is important but the reason for this or that phenomenon in the economy. Everything indicates that the Russian economy has been put on a severe military footing, which always leads to the illusion of full employment of the population.
  • The intensification of the negotiation process between Russia and the United States demonstrates a change in geopolitical trends. The Russian-Ukrainian war turned out to be too exhausting for all sides. At the same time, in bilateral communications between Moscow and Washington, the Ukrainian issue is not seen as the main problem but as one of the elements of the global confrontation. It is obvious that the war has two development paths: either Ukraine will demonstrate serious success on the battlefield (as officials in the United States, Great Britain and France insist on), or then the “appeasement” mechanism will be launched, including through the developments of informal groups and to the detriment of the interests of Ukraine.

This report describes the topics being the most relevant for Russia during 03-09 July:

1. Meeting of the Heads Council of the SCO state members;

2. Situation about Zaporizhzhia NPP;

3. The situation around the “grain deal”;

4. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with members of the Russian Government;

5. Negotiation process between Moscow and Washington;

6. Rumors about the dismissal of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, from the post of commander of Russian troops in Ukraine.

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This report describes the key events that significantly impacted Russia’s political, economic and social processes.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Russia continues to strengthen its engagement with other major regional players. Active interaction with China, India and Iran demonstrates that building a new regional policy is beginning to bear fruit, creating the outlines of a new multipolar world. In fact, splitting the world community into several camps has become irreversible. Now we can talk not so much about a return to the old, monopolar Pax Americana but to a series of international treaties that would consolidate the status quo and define the rules for interaction between groups of states. At the same time, it is essential to note that Russia cannot play a key role in such a world order. Its economy does not compete with China or India, and its resource base, although attractive, is not becoming strategically important.
  • Putin continues to focus on social issues, which is understandable to ordinary Russians: despite sanctions and fighting, we are doing well in the economy, we are strong in social issues, and so on. The figures for combating unemployment are achieved, among other things, through mobilisation actions and the influx of personnel to military-industrial complex enterprises. In fact, it is not the number that is important but the reason for this or that phenomenon in the economy. Everything indicates that the Russian economy has been put on a severe military footing, which always leads to the illusion of full employment of the population.
  • The intensification of the negotiation process between Russia and the United States demonstrates a change in geopolitical trends. The Russian-Ukrainian war turned out to be too exhausting for all sides. At the same time, in bilateral communications between Moscow and Washington, the Ukrainian issue is not seen as the main problem but as one of the elements of the global confrontation. It is obvious that the war has two development paths: either Ukraine will demonstrate serious success on the battlefield (as officials in the United States, Great Britain and France insist on), or then the “appeasement” mechanism will be launched, including through the developments of informal groups and to the detriment of the interests of Ukraine.

This report describes the topics being the most relevant for Russia during 03-09 July:

1. Meeting of the Heads Council of the SCO state members;

2. Situation about Zaporizhzhia NPP;

3. The situation around the “grain deal”;

4. Vladimir Putin’s meeting with members of the Russian Government;

5. Negotiation process between Moscow and Washington;

6. Rumors about the dismissal of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov, from the post of commander of Russian troops in Ukraine.

This Content Is Only For Subscribers

Please subscribe to unlock this content. Enter your email to get access.
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