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Russia: Weekly Report (20.03-26.03)

By ascolta
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This report describes the key events that had an important impact on the political, economic and social processes inside Russia.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Despite the collective West’s sceptical reaction, Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow revealed a serious strengthening of the joint position of the two states. This raised severe adjustments to the Kremlin’s foreign policy strategy, which became evident in some statements by Putin, Medvedev, Mishustin and other government officials. Generally, it can be foreseen that Russia will shortly intensify its attempts to introduce a negotiation process with the West on strategic stability, one of which may be the Ukrainian issue.
  • Active preparations for the presidential elections, which will be held in 2024, continue in Russia. In addition to the Xi Jinping statements, who supported the nomination of Putin for the next presidential term, the comments of several government officials who are increasingly focusing their attention on achievements in the social and humanitarian spheres, as well as improving economic indicators and the general standard of living in Russia, were very noticeable. Such an approach should be considered in the context of the upcoming election campaign and attempts to mobilise the electorate at an early stage.
  • Putin demonstrates a firm stance on breaking off relations with the West and strengthening alliances in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The Russian president uses the formation of such axes to put additional pressure on European leaders, who are addressed with a clear message: “you are either with us or against us.” This also includes Putin’s discussions about the events in France (mass protests against the pension reform), in which he tries to hint to Macron about the possibility of assisting. At the same time, Europe continues to show solid collective support for Ukraine, which is clearly not in line with Moscow’s expectations.

During 20th-26th of March the following topics were the most relevant for Russia:

1. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow 

On Monday, March 20, Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a three-day state visit to Moscow. During this time, the Chinese leader managed to hold informal and official meetings with Vladimir Putin, talks with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and a meeting with Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov. Also, the Chinese delegation at the level of ministers and high-ranking civil servants negotiated with their Russian counterparts.

Timeline:

  • On March 20, an informal meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin took place. It lasted over four hours.
  • Putin, at a meeting with Xi Jinping, said he carefully read China’s peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. He said he intends to discuss this plan during negotiations with Xi and that “Russia is always open to the negotiation process.”
  • Xi Jinping called Putin a “dear friend.” He noted that under the leadership of Putin, “Russia has made significant progress in the country’s prosperity. Moreover, you have elections next year; I am sure the Russian people will support you.”
  • Peskov on the first day of negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping: “a very serious conversation took place, a thorough exchange of views.”
  • On March 21, Xi Jinping invited Putin to visit China this year. He also invited Mikhail Mishustin to visit China as soon as possible and called for the activation of the work of intergovernmental mechanisms between the two countries.
  • During the official meeting of the leaders of the two states, Xi Jinping said that the volume of Russian gas supplies to China by 2030 will be at least 98 billion cubic meters plus 100 million tons of LNG. According to him, almost all the parameters for the new gas pipeline project to China, “Power of Siberia – 2”, have already been agreed upon.
  • Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov said, “the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine commands Moscow’s respect.” However, he also said the plan “irritates” the West.
  • At a joint press conference with Xi Jinping, Putin effectively supported China’s peace plan for Ukraine, providing an immediate ceasefire. He stated that this plan “can be the basis for a peaceful settlement when the West and Kyiv are ready. But so far, we have not observed such readiness on their part.”
  • Xi Jinping on China’s peace proposals to end the war in Ukraine: “We adhere to an objective position; we are in favour of resuming negotiations.”

Following the talks between Xi Jinping and Putin, the parties issued a joint statement consisting of 9 points:

  1. The Russian Federation positively assesses the position of China on Ukraine, and China positively assesses the readiness of the Russian Federation to launch negotiations;
  1. Russia and China are concerned about the risks associated with the creation of AUKUS and their plans to build nuclear submarines;
  1. Russia and China call on AUKUS to strictly fulfil its obligations to non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction;
  1. Russia and China plan to strengthen their comprehensive partnership in the energy sector;
  1. The Russian Federation and China believe that to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, it is necessary to prevent bloc confrontation and incitement of conflict;
  1. The Russian Federation and China are concerned about the military biological activities of the United States, and they demand clarification on this matter
  1. Russia and China will expand scientific exchanges to ensure the technological leadership of the two countries;
  1. The Russian Federation and China urge to avoid the degradation of the crisis in Ukraine and its transition “to an uncontrollable phase”;
  1. Russia and China oppose all unilateral sanctions imposed, bypassing the UN Security Council.

As a result of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, 14 official documents were signed at the highest level:

  1. Joint statement by the Russian Federation and China on the deepening of relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction entering a new era.
  1. Joint statement by the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the PRC on the plan for the development of critical areas of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation until 2030.
  1. Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on cooperation in the joint production of television programs.
  1. Protocol to the Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the PRC on the establishment and organisational bases of the mechanism for regular meetings of the heads of governments of Russia and China dated June 27, 1997
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China on deepening cooperation in the area of exhibition and fair activities.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC on deepening investment cooperation in the development and use of forest resources.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC on deepening investment cooperation between the Russian Federation’s subjects and the PRC’s provinces in the soybean industry.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China on industrial and infrastructural cooperation in the preferential regimes of the Far East of the Russian Federation.
  1. Protocol between the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research and the Chinese Academy of Sciences on strengthening cooperation in the field of fundamental scientific research.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation in the field of consumer protection between the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare (RF) and the Main State Administration for Market Control and Regulation of China.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Agency for State Property Management (RF) and the Committee for Control and Management of State Property of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China on strengthening cooperation in state enterprise management.
  1. Comprehensive long-term cooperation program in fast neutron reactors and closing the nuclear fuel cycle between the State Atomic Energy Corporation “Rosatom” and the PRC Atomic Energy Agency.
  1. Memorandum of Cooperation between the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company” and the China Media Corporation.
  1. Agreement on the exchange of information and cooperation between the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “Information Telegraph Agency of Russia (ITAR-TASS)” (RF) and the Information Agency “Xinhua” (PRC).

Outcomes and outlook:

Undoubtedly, Xi Jinping’s state visit to Moscow has become a landmark event in the geopolitical arena. Despite several statements that no special agreements were reached during the visit, playing into the hands of Russia, the sharp reaction of some Western states demonstrated their serious concern caused by the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow, which is reaching a dangerous level.

Previously, Ascolta separately analysed the results of Xi Jinping in Moscow and tried to identify the primary hidden meanings encrypted in a relatively dry final statement. At the same time, some additional effects of the last visit began to become apparent from subsequent statements by both sides.

In general, it can be stated that the alliance between Moscow and Beijing will be aimed at a total reform of the world order, in which both states do not want to put up with the dominance of Washington. Despite several statements and assumptions from Western analysts, Russia and China do not intend to destroy the system that was created after the Second World War: both Xi Jinping and Putin continue to appeal to the United Nations Charter, which rather indicates a desire to get rid of excessive influence the United States on international organisations, rather than on the desire to liquidate the organisations themselves.

Also, attempts by both Beijing and Moscow to play against the United States are becoming more noticeable, using the tools familiar to Washington, shaping in public opinion the image of an unscrupulous or even attacking state hiding behind democratic values. Hence the direct accusations of undermining the Nord Streams attempts to accuse the United States of using biological weapons (in particular COVID-19), the intensification of discussions of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and even the statement about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus as a response to US actions during the Cold War. In fact, Beijing and Moscow demonstrated to the States that they could use similar methods. In case of disagreement with them, they offer to turn to the UN, where they actively form a support group from states unfriendly to Washington to promote their interests.

At the same time, Russia and China say they have no plans to create a military alliance, actively criticising such attempts by the United States and its allies. New formations like AUKUS or QUAD China and Russia plan to resist not through linear methods but by demonstrating complete disagreement with attempts to militarise international relations. In fact, a military alliance between Moscow and Beijing already exists. Moreover, Iran and a number of smaller states ready to support such an entity can be added to it. At the same time, at the official level, the leaders of the two states declare an exceptional desire to create political instruments in international relations – BRICS, the EAEU, Russia-Central Asia, various formats of ties with Africa, and more. Thus, Russia and China are trying to demonstrate to the world community that, in fact, it is the United States and its allies who want war, and those states that have been portrayed as aggressors for many years are crying out for peace.

Even though both Putin and Xi Jinping devoted a lot of time to the Ukrainian issue, it can be assumed that they considered the settlement of the situation in Ukraine only in the context of resolving more global issues. The so-called peace plan of Xi Jinping does not offer concrete steps to resolve the Ukrainian issue; it only calls for negotiations and respect for international law. The negotiations are provided to the collective West, which, according to Moscow and Beijing, should accept their terms and reconsider their positions regarding the world order.

In this case, it is worth noting the high risks for the Western democratic system, which, of course, are indicated by Western politicians, although they are not demonstrated to the public.

It can be assumed that the projected new Cold War is already gaining significant momentum and will remain “cold” only as long as official propaganda controls public opinion. Otherwise, the world risks facing an actual military conflict that will go down in history as World War Three.

2. Vladimir Putin’s interview for “Russia 1” 

On Saturday, March 25, another interview with Vladimir Putin was published on the Rossiya 1 channel. In it, he actually summed up the negotiations with his Chinese counterpart and also made a number of additional statements. Apparently, they were also agreed upon during the negotiations and are part of the overall global strategy.

Key theses: 

  • “Based on our data, the US produces about 14,000-15,000 shells monthly. The Armed Forces of Ukraine use up to 5,000 shells per day. Next year [the United States] plans to carry 42 thousand shells in 2025 – 75 thousand. Over the same period of time, Russian industry will produce three times more shells.”
  • “Now I don’t want to assess the rationality of decisions at different levels of military command, but now the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are forced to introduce certain limits [on the use of projectiles].”
  • “You mentioned other types of equipment, tanks. The arsonists plan to send 420 tanks [to Ukraine]. We will produce new and modernise over 1600 existing units during this time. Therefore, the total number of Russian tanks will exceed three times the number of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I’m not talking about aviation anymore.”
  • “We build our economy in such a way that we do not allow excessive militarisation. We have all our plans in civil engineering, health care, education, and infrastructure development, we are not cutting anything, and they will have to cut.”
  • “Russia has something to say [to the possible supply of depleted uranium shells by the UK to Ukraine]. We have hundreds of thousands of these [depleted uranium] projectiles, but we don’t use them yet.”
  • “As for our negotiations with Lukashenko, even outside the context of these events, Alexander Lukashenko has long questioned deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. First, the US has been doing this for decades. They placed it in six states of Europe. And we agreed [with Lukashenka] that we would do the same. On July 1, we are finishing the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.”
  • “We would use the dollar. They [USA] do not give us. They saw the branch on which they sat.
  • “Oil-producing countries in the Middle East also want to settle in yuan.”
  • “Sitting by the fireplace and drinking tea, we [with Xi Jinping] talked about everything slowly. We talked about the world situation and different aspects. The PRC President paid a lot of attention to revealing the positive beginnings of the Chinese peace plan for resolving the situation in Ukraine.”
  • “Here are the different approaches: the collective West and NATO members on the one hand with their aggressive rhetoric and the supply of weapons and China’s proposals with a peace plan on the other hand.”
  • “I must say that the President of the People’s Republic of China is a very interesting interlocutor; he is deeply immersed in all world affairs and the economy and problems of his country and ours.”
  • “An American journalist conducted such an investigation [about the explosion at Nord Stream] and concluded that US intelligence agencies organised this explosion. I fully agree with these conclusions.”

Outcomes and outlook:

As expected, in his interview for Russia 1, Vladimir Putin voiced several important theses that will be most actively promoted in the public space soon. Moreover, despite the active reaction of the West regarding the issue of deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, it is worth noting that Putin’s direct accusation against the United States of undermining the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines is no less important.

In this case, the issue of deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus has been predicted by many analysts and, accordingly, by the intelligence structures of several countries, for a long time. This step was perceived as inevitable but, apparently, did not carry a direct threat to Europe. Beijing and Moscow have publicly stated that they categorically oppose nuclear weapons, which can be seen as new security guarantees between the two states, albeit only in words).

At the same time, the direct accusation of the United States of undermining the gas pipeline demonstrates Putin’s readiness to further develop this topic. But, of course, few people will believe the words of the aggressor state accusing the United States of an act of international terrorism. Still, suppose China and a few other countries oriented towards a new anti-Western “axis” support Putin’s position (which, apparently, can happen soon). In that case, getting a real precedent that the collective West will have to reckon with is possible.

We are dealing with an attempt by Russia (or Putin personally) to play against the United States using their methods. Shortly, we should expect the publication of new evidence or the sounding of recent accusations against the United States. Such charges will not be supported by concrete evidence (Putin made it clear that he does not have tangible proof since one of the NATO countries has already cleared all the evidence). Still, in this case, the main thing is not the result but the process. Putin forced the US to react and even make excuses by proclaiming his innocence. Publications in the Western media about the involvement of Ukrainian partisans and oligarchs in blowing up gas pipelines look much more ridiculous than the statements of the Russian side.

Suppose Russia’s position continues to advance action in this direction. In that case, a clear stereotype may form in society, according to which the United States will act as an aggressor and initiator of an act of international terrorism. Moreover, without any evidence or facts.

Also, in his interview, Putin tried to send a clear message to Europe: your attempts to increase the production of shells will not help since the Russian economy is already on a war footing and withstands all your sanctions. This message, most likely, is far from an attempt to compare the production potential and the number of tanks or aircraft. It is addressed not to Western politicians or strategists but to ordinary Europeans, who are increasingly beginning to feel economic crises and are increasingly thinking about their own well-being. The main goal of this message is to promote the Chinese peace plan, which carries the most important message for a simple European man in the street – the possibility of negotiations. Thus, there is a banal substitution of concepts, which consists of an attempt to put all factors out of the frame, leaving only the need for negotiations on any conditions. We are talking about a new “Trojan horse” for Europe: it doesn’t matter who started the war, and it doesn’t matter what the Ukrainians died for; the only important thing is that Moscow and Beijing offer a peaceful process to resolve the situation.

And despite the very sober position of the Europeans, who do not want to perceive Putin as a peacemaker, the Russian president, in his interview, forms another message addressed directly to French President Macron. Asked about mass protests in France over pension reform, Putin notes that he also carried out a similar reform, but it did not provoke a similar public reaction. Explaining certain aspects of the reform, he apparently, makes it clear to Macron that he is ready to help him with domestic political problems in exchange for support in “peaceful” initiatives regarding Ukraine. The only question is how actively one can trace the Russian trace in French mass actions.

3. Report of the Russian Government 

On Thursday, March 23, the Government’s report for 2022 was held in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin spoke about the results of work in 2022 and also answered questions from deputies of all factions. In addition, the report was attended by regional parliaments, business communities and trade unions. The report of the Government of the Russian Federation lasted more than four hours.

Key theses:

  • “We have put the economy back on a growth trajectory. Now even some international organisations are predicting positive dynamics for us by the end of 2023 and reaching GDP growth rates higher than those of developed countries in 2024.”
  • “Thanks to the leadership of the Central Bank, the work of credit institutions, the currency and stock markets were normalised, Russia avoided external blocking of trade operations within the country. Payment for goods, services, and transfers are carried out as before. All bank cards in Russia that were used work. We also reduced inflationary pressure and maintained the banking sector’s stability.”
  • “Thanks to the support of the authorities, Russian business has rebuilt its commodity and logistics chains and adapted to new conditions. In 2022 alone, 83 companies registered in “Russian offshores”, three times more than in the previous year.”
  • “We all want to see our country strong and modern, which means that citizens should always be able to receive high-quality treatment and undergo examination without waiting for an appointment for a long time.”
  • “Speaking of higher education, Mikhail Mishustin noted that 25 world-class university campuses will become centres of attraction for talented youth.”
  • “The level of food security in Russia is one of the most reliable in the world”.
  • “Russia’s strength lies in its regions. Therefore, their development is another priority for us.”
  • “To meet the multiply increased needs, organisations of the military-industrial complex are rapidly implementing investment projects”.
  • “External pressure on Russia will not ease. Nevertheless, we expect the adaptation period to end as early as 2024. After that, Russia will embark on the path of long-term progressive development.”

Outcomes and outlook:

It should be noted that the Government’s report is a regular event in Russia and does not carry a particular burden for the general public. At the same time, in 2023, Mikhail Mishustin’s speech to the State Duma of the Russian Federation’s deputies contained several essential aspects that are worth paying attention to. Firstly, one of Mishustin’s main tasks was another attempt to legalise the thesis that Western sanctions do not work and that the Russian economy is recovering or developing. Furthermore, compliments addressed to the liberal wing by the Head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, and her team were very indicative. Finally, of course, it is worth agreeing that the sharp decline in the Russian economy, as many Western analysts expected, did not happen. Still, at the same time, the sanctions are more protracted and will be able to demonstrate more serious consequences in a few years. Russian economists often mention this factor, but the Government prefers to remain silent about such prospects.

Secondly, the report of the Government of the Russian Federation was built considering the recently launched presidential election campaign, in which the Kremlin is actively trying to play a card under the code name “everything for the people.” That is why the report devotes so much time to stories about improving the social sphere, medicine and education. Also, special attention is paid to the development of regions, including the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Thus, once again, one can trace the main accents of Putin’s election campaign.

Thirdly, Mishustin had the goal of finally legalising the transition of the Russian economy to a military footing, which, although carefully hidden at the government level, is increasingly being discussed by people in business and even politicians. Moreover, in his interview with Russia-1, Putin admitted such a transition, although he tried to hide its natural level.

In general, it can be noted that the Mishustin government demonstrates a quite satisfactory level of anti-crisis management, which is completely satisfied in the Kremlin. Shortly, one can hardly expect the resignation of Mishustin himself, which has been often discussed in Telegram channels recently. Moreover, his recent meeting with Xi Jinping and an invitation to Beijing may indicate strengthening positions in the Russian political system. Finally, the Government report demonstrated that Mishustin also copes professionally with introducing the necessary theses.

4. Telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan 

On Saturday, March 25, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to the official statement, topical issues of the Russian-Turkish partnership in various fields were discussed during the conversation. Satisfaction was expressed with the positive dynamics of trade and economic ties, the successful implementation of joint strategic projects in the energy sector, including gas supplies and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey. It is also noted that the Turkish leader positively assessed Russia’s agreement to extend the Istanbul agreements for 60 days regarding the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports and unblocking the export of Russian food and fertilisers. At the same time, an understanding was expressed of the Russian side’s principled intention to fully implement the second part of the mentioned “package” agreements – to remove barriers to agricultural products from Russia.

Outcomes and outlook:

It is noteworthy that, according to the Turkish side, the telephone conversation was about steps to strengthen Turkish-Russian relations and the latest developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war. At the same time, it is noted that President Erdogan thanked President Putin for his positive position regarding the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Still, there is no mention of the timing of the deal’s extension.

Earlier, Ascolta repeatedly analysed Turkish-Russian relations, noting several essential factors both for Russia, which sees Turkey and Erdogan personally as a situational ally in relations with the West and for Turkey, which sees Russia as an important ally in regional issues, as well as in upholding own positions concerning the West. On the eve of the presidential elections in Turkey, Erdogan is forced to demonstrate greater dependence on Russia. Still, at the same time, he has enough leverage to ensure that such dependence remains only situational.

At the same time, it is important to note that almost immediately after the telephone conversation between the leaders of Turkey and Russia, Erdogan’s representative Ibrahim Kalin, on the air of the Turkish NTV channel, stated the need to “thoroughly study” China’s peace plan for Ukraine. He says Turkey is ready to support the Chinese proposals if they “create a foundation for negotiations.” He added that “the West miscalculated the situation” and “sanctions against Russia only push it towards closer ties with China.”

Of course, these statements should not be taken as the official position of Turkey, but it should be assumed that they were sanctioned personally by Erdogan. Turkey’s attempt to demonstrate its loyalty to the emerging anti-Western alliance led by Russia and China becomes more noticeable in this case. It is important to note that Turkey will most likely continue to try to balance West and East, skillfully using its geographical position. At the same time, the main risks will lie in its support for Ukraine and a change in the mediating position towards the possible support of the so-called peace plan of Xi Jinping.

The telephone conversation between Putin and Erdogan clearly did not become a turning point in relations between the two states. Instead, it was carried out to compare watches and synchronise some positions at the regional level.

At the same time, according to Ascolta, another essential point in the conversation between the leaders of the two states could be the preparation for Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey, which may occur soon. If such plans are implemented, Putin will provide serious support to Erdogan in the upcoming elections, which will undoubtedly entail retaliatory actions from Turkey as well (most likely, we can talk about the settlement of several issues related to Russian interests in the “grain deal”).

Also, Putin’s visit to Turkey will demonstrate that the Russian leader is not afraid of the decision of the International Criminal Court or other similar actions of international organisations. It is important to note that Turkey is a state that has not signed or acceded to the Rome Statute, but at the same time, it is a member of NATO and is trying to maintain a balance in relations between the West and the East. Therefore, Putin’s invitation will definitely be considered by the West as a violation by Turkey and Erdogan personally of democratic norms and principles since, in the understanding of the West, a meeting with Putin is regarded as a meeting with an international criminal.

5. Statement by Dmitry Medvedev

On Thursday, March 23, an interview was published with Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, in which he answered many questions from journalists and users of the Russian social network VK.com. Medvedev, in his usual manner, criticised the West, urged to increase the size of the army, inflict maximum damage on unfriendly countries, and made several other harsh statements.

Key statements:

  • “In my opinion, in certain situations, it is pointless to negotiate. Instead, it is necessary to ignore, and in some cases make decisions like the one adopted on February 24 last year.”
  • “Moreover, Ukraine is generally a part of Russia; let’s be honest, it is a part of Russia. But due to geopolitical reasons and the history of what happened, we put up with the fact that we have lived in different apartments for a long time.
  • “As you know, a kind word and a gun bring more results than just a kind word.”
  • “The International Criminal Court itself is a kind of legal nonentity, an impotent international legal entity that has not done anything significant since its inception”.
  • “Unfortunately, lately, finishing the conversation about leaders, there has been a catastrophic decline in the competence and elementary literacy of the leaders of the European Union. I will not name individual names; you know them.
  • “Yes, China is much larger than us in terms of population and economy. But we have our capabilities, including, say, such as our permanent membership in the Security Council (together with China too) or nuclear potential, the size of our country, colossal reserves of development sources, and so on. That is, each country complements the other here. We just need to conclude the lessons of history. We also had different periods [of relations] with China, but they have been on the ascending line in recent years, and I have been watching them for almost 25 years. Every year brings something new and different.”
  • “The United States of America is our enemy. But they have a consistent position. If possible, they are trying to cause maximum harm to us, to divide the country altogether and put Europe on their needle as hard as possible so they do not flutter. Otherwise, leaders periodically come to power and begin to be clever – either they will leave NATO or suspend their membership, or they will start doing something else. Now here’s how they would do it. Their position is quite clear to me from the point of view of logic. What I do not understand is the position of the European leaders who are not capable of making decisions in favour of the Europeans. All their decisions are either in favour of individual political groups competing with each other or in favour of the Americans. That is, they are not only a dependent subject of international law, they simply became a donor of the United States of America at the expense of their taxpayers.”
  • “It is clear that the same T-90M tank, Proryv, is our newest tank. But, in my opinion, this is now the best tank in the world. In the world! It is certainly better than the Leopard, the Challenger, and the Abrams, including its tactical and technical data, even in terms of such a component as mass. In addition, it’s agile, fast, and really works well.”
  • “We need to make a full-fledged line of shock drones, that is, full-fledged large aircraft. So there is still something to do here, although we also have several samples already going into production; I’m sure that putting them on the wing is a matter of the coming months.”
  • “The Russian Federation is not at war with Ukraine, not with the Ukrainian semi-Nazi or Nazi regime – our country is at war with 3.6 million NATO troops. They participate, of course, in such a hybrid conflict, and they, in fact, no longer hide it. And with a population of 800 million people, which supplies equipment, weapons and money to the Kyiv regime. They are also engaged in training; they are about to come to start unfolding something, and so on.
  • “Inflation will be in the region of 6% by March, and after some time – in the region of 4%. Feel the difference: in Europe, it is higher in most countries. They fired up this campaign, they started to fight us, and now in some countries, this inflation is 15-20%. Well, that’s what they need. Therefore, it is a question of the art of management.”
  • “I don’t know what will happen next, but it is obvious that the era of regional agreements such as BRICS, SCO, and bilateral relations is coming. In some ways, this may even seem like a step backwards, but such a step back is better than an attempt to portray unanimity under the auspices of the UN or some other body. So international institutions will change.”
  • “To be completely frank, I believe that the preconditions for the collapse of the United States of America are much higher. Especially in light of what’s going on right now.”
  • “Has the threat of nuclear conflict passed? No, it hasn’t passed. She has grown. Every day of deliveries of foreign weapons to Ukraine ultimately brings this same nuclear apocalypse closer. This does not mean it will occur, and I have already spoken about this. But the horsemen of the Apocalypse are already on their way and continue on their way; you can be sure.
  • “Our army needs to get bigger. And its population parameters have been announced – it is at least 1.5 million people.”
  • “If they left us all sorts of Netflix and others, then we will download all this and use it for free. And I would scatter all this over the Net to cause them maximum damage. Maximum damage to make them bankrupt!

Outcomes and outlook:

It is worth noting that Medvedev’s statements have become less radical and more detailed. He seemed to be trying to convey his position to a broader audience while not using his usual phrases for this, filled with fatalism and maximalism.

As before, his statements are aimed directly at the internal consumer and do not mean anything to external observers. In fact, Medvedev’s interview explains Russia’s new strategy for the Russians themselves. In particular, we are talking about the most radical part of the electorate, which during the war, got used to focusing on Medvedev’s harsh statements.

It is noteworthy that this interview came out almost immediately after the end of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow. The main topics of the interview were structured in such a way as to accommodate all the necessary “changes” in Russia’s foreign policy strategy.

Medvedev focuses his attention on several points. First, he once again clarifies that Russia does not consider Ukraine a subject state. He applauds history, calling Ukraine part of Russia, and also claims the futility of negotiations in some situations, recalling an attempted negotiation with NATO in early 2022. Apparently, in the eyes of the Russian public, in the near future, they will try to form a stereotype according to which the West and Ukraine are asking for negotiations and not Russia. This scenario fits into the more global actions of the Russian Federation in an attempt to return to negotiations on strategic stability.

Secondly, Medvedev is once again trying to explain the failures of the Russian army by saying that it is not at war with Ukraine but with the entire NATO bloc, which, according to Medvedev, has admitted its direct participation in the conflict. It is worth noting that this thesis has recently become much more active and will be more prominent in the Russian information space. Therefore, we should expect that soon, Russia will try to legalise this thesis in the international arena, apparently with the support of China. If this strategy is successfully implemented, Russia will not only get an excuse for its failures in military operations. Still, it will also be able to build a common anti-Western position that demonstrates the aggressiveness of NATO itself, which was created as a defensive alliance.

Thirdly, Medvedev once again demonstrated Russia’s common position about international law, which ended the issue of the decision of the International Criminal Court (for the Russian consumer). Moreover, Medvedev openly supported the idea of piracy and said it was an excellent tool to fight Western companies that could go bankrupt. In this situation, it is essential to note that this message was addressed not only to domestic consumption but also to the piracy movement, which is gaining momentum in the West and is already represented in the parliaments of several European countries. Russia is increasingly trying to flirt not only with the right but also with populists. This trend raises serious concerns and requires additional monitoring.

Fourth, like Mikhail Mishustin, Medvedev tried once again to legalise the transition of the Russian economy to a military footing, which was officially refuted by the authorities. In fact, we are seeing how the thesis “our economy is strong in this form” is being implemented, which implies an increase in the share of the military-industrial complex in economic growth. The Kremlin will continue to declare that there are no plans to switch to a military footing while these processes, like covert mobilisation, have long been implemented at all levels. 

6. Viktor Medvedchuk’s article in Western media 

After a series of articles and interviews in the Russian media, Viktor Medvedchuk decided to reach a new level and, with the help of Western media resources, tried to convey his thesis to the Europeans. In several Western publications, his article was published under the title “US Aggression against Europe.” In it, Medvedchuk described how the States “occupied” Europe and allegedly led it to collapse. According to Medvedchuk, US relations with European countries as allies after the Cold War were costly, and therefore a new format was needed. The bombing of Yugoslavia became the starting point for transforming these relations. It showed that Washington could launch military aggression against any country at any moment, bypassing international law if necessary.

Key theses:

  • Contrary to paragraphs “b” and “c” of Article I of the Declaration on the Inadmissibility of Intervention and Interference in the Internal Affairs of States, adopted by the UN General Assembly in its resolution 36/103 of December 9, 1981, the United States, through the supranational bodies of the European Union, began to violate the sovereign right to the sovereignty of the European Union.
  • As a result of World War II, the US occupied Western Europe, the dollar replaced the pound sterling as the world’s currency, the British and French empires collapsed, and the US became the world’s superpower.
  • In 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine. And in 2021, Joe Biden was elected President of the United States. In addition, the “inspirer” of the Ukrainian coup, Victoria Nuland, returned to the US State Department.
  • According to Article 1 of the Definition of Aggression, adopted by Resolution 3314 (XXIX UN General Assembly) of December 14 1974, aggression is “the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations United Nations as specified in this definition.” Thus, using US military force to blow up three of the four Nord Stream gas pipelines is an act of aggression against the European Union and Russia.
  • In the current conflict in Ukraine, the US and UK have the following main objectives:
  1. Rupture of economic ties between Europe, Russia and China, mainly in the export of cheap energy resources and, as a result, the weakening of the European economy, the deprivation of its industries that compete with the United States, the transfer of high-tech industries to the United States.
  1. Weakening of the European financial system, depriving the euro of its haven status. The hostilities in Europe and the threat of their spread to NATO countries and the European Union are forcing investors to leave Europe.
  1. The weakening of the military industry. Part of the military industry of Europe as a competitor to the United States has disappeared, for example, in the development and production of 5th-generation fighters.
  1. Drawing European countries into hostilities. In the first stage, this could be Poland and the Baltic countries (as in the case of arms supplies), and then Germany and other countries will “join”.

As a result, European countries will be deindustrialised and destroyed, as is happening today.

Outcomes and outlook:

As before, Ascolta considers the activation of Viktor Medvedchuk as a factor in creating the image of a “normal Ukrainian” for the average Russian citizen. At the same time, it is worth noting that this article is already the second in recent times. It is posted not in the Russian media but in the Western ones and is designed for a completely different audience.

In this situation, several important factors should be noted. Firstly, activating Viktor Medvedchuk’s work for the Western audience may be partly associated with an attempt to influence Ukrainian migrants living in the European Union. According to official UN data, about 7 million such people are currently. Therefore, it is essential to pay attention to the fact that recently Ukrainian migrants have become a sphere of increased interest in Russian structures in Europe, which are trying to influence their consciousness and form an alternative point of view regarding Russia and its aggression against Ukraine. Medvedchuk’s article may also be part of this process.

Secondly, the article is built on a clear appeal to international law, particularly the UN Charter and the facts of its violation by the United States. Finally, Medvedchuk highlights the lucrative facts of US misconduct by drawing parallels with Russia’s actions. This approach is well received by the audience and sows doubt about the perception of objective reality, which is what the author is trying to achieve.

Thirdly, Medvedchuk’s activity is demonstrated by Russia as the position of a Ukrainian regarding the West and its system of international relations. This is a continuation of the strategy of forming the image of a “correct Ukrainian” in the eyes of the Russian audience, which will continue to introduce such a reality, passing it off as objective.

Generally, the absence of any official reaction to Medvedchuk’s statements can be considered the best response to his attempts to demonstrate his own position.

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Russia: Weekly Report (27.03-02.04)

This report describes the key events that had an important impact on the political, economic and social processes inside Russia.

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

  • Despite the collective West’s sceptical reaction, Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow revealed a serious strengthening of the joint position of the two states. This raised severe adjustments to the Kremlin’s foreign policy strategy, which became evident in some statements by Putin, Medvedev, Mishustin and other government officials. Generally, it can be foreseen that Russia will shortly intensify its attempts to introduce a negotiation process with the West on strategic stability, one of which may be the Ukrainian issue.
  • Active preparations for the presidential elections, which will be held in 2024, continue in Russia. In addition to the Xi Jinping statements, who supported the nomination of Putin for the next presidential term, the comments of several government officials who are increasingly focusing their attention on achievements in the social and humanitarian spheres, as well as improving economic indicators and the general standard of living in Russia, were very noticeable. Such an approach should be considered in the context of the upcoming election campaign and attempts to mobilise the electorate at an early stage.
  • Putin demonstrates a firm stance on breaking off relations with the West and strengthening alliances in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The Russian president uses the formation of such axes to put additional pressure on European leaders, who are addressed with a clear message: “you are either with us or against us.” This also includes Putin’s discussions about the events in France (mass protests against the pension reform), in which he tries to hint to Macron about the possibility of assisting. At the same time, Europe continues to show solid collective support for Ukraine, which is clearly not in line with Moscow’s expectations.

During 20th-26th of March the following topics were the most relevant for Russia:

1. Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow 

On Monday, March 20, Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a three-day state visit to Moscow. During this time, the Chinese leader managed to hold informal and official meetings with Vladimir Putin, talks with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and a meeting with Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov. Also, the Chinese delegation at the level of ministers and high-ranking civil servants negotiated with their Russian counterparts.

Timeline:

  • On March 20, an informal meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin took place. It lasted over four hours.
  • Putin, at a meeting with Xi Jinping, said he carefully read China’s peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. He said he intends to discuss this plan during negotiations with Xi and that “Russia is always open to the negotiation process.”
  • Xi Jinping called Putin a “dear friend.” He noted that under the leadership of Putin, “Russia has made significant progress in the country’s prosperity. Moreover, you have elections next year; I am sure the Russian people will support you.”
  • Peskov on the first day of negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping: “a very serious conversation took place, a thorough exchange of views.”
  • On March 21, Xi Jinping invited Putin to visit China this year. He also invited Mikhail Mishustin to visit China as soon as possible and called for the activation of the work of intergovernmental mechanisms between the two countries.
  • During the official meeting of the leaders of the two states, Xi Jinping said that the volume of Russian gas supplies to China by 2030 will be at least 98 billion cubic meters plus 100 million tons of LNG. According to him, almost all the parameters for the new gas pipeline project to China, “Power of Siberia – 2”, have already been agreed upon.
  • Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov said, “the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine commands Moscow’s respect.” However, he also said the plan “irritates” the West.
  • At a joint press conference with Xi Jinping, Putin effectively supported China’s peace plan for Ukraine, providing an immediate ceasefire. He stated that this plan “can be the basis for a peaceful settlement when the West and Kyiv are ready. But so far, we have not observed such readiness on their part.”
  • Xi Jinping on China’s peace proposals to end the war in Ukraine: “We adhere to an objective position; we are in favour of resuming negotiations.”

Following the talks between Xi Jinping and Putin, the parties issued a joint statement consisting of 9 points:

  1. The Russian Federation positively assesses the position of China on Ukraine, and China positively assesses the readiness of the Russian Federation to launch negotiations;
  1. Russia and China are concerned about the risks associated with the creation of AUKUS and their plans to build nuclear submarines;
  1. Russia and China call on AUKUS to strictly fulfil its obligations to non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction;
  1. Russia and China plan to strengthen their comprehensive partnership in the energy sector;
  1. The Russian Federation and China believe that to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, it is necessary to prevent bloc confrontation and incitement of conflict;
  1. The Russian Federation and China are concerned about the military biological activities of the United States, and they demand clarification on this matter
  1. Russia and China will expand scientific exchanges to ensure the technological leadership of the two countries;
  1. The Russian Federation and China urge to avoid the degradation of the crisis in Ukraine and its transition “to an uncontrollable phase”;
  1. Russia and China oppose all unilateral sanctions imposed, bypassing the UN Security Council.

As a result of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, 14 official documents were signed at the highest level:

  1. Joint statement by the Russian Federation and China on the deepening of relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction entering a new era.
  1. Joint statement by the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the PRC on the plan for the development of critical areas of Russian-Chinese economic cooperation until 2030.
  1. Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on cooperation in the joint production of television programs.
  1. Protocol to the Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the PRC on the establishment and organisational bases of the mechanism for regular meetings of the heads of governments of Russia and China dated June 27, 1997
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China on deepening cooperation in the area of exhibition and fair activities.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC on deepening investment cooperation in the development and use of forest resources.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC on deepening investment cooperation between the Russian Federation’s subjects and the PRC’s provinces in the soybean industry.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China on industrial and infrastructural cooperation in the preferential regimes of the Far East of the Russian Federation.
  1. Protocol between the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research and the Chinese Academy of Sciences on strengthening cooperation in the field of fundamental scientific research.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding and Cooperation in the field of consumer protection between the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare (RF) and the Main State Administration for Market Control and Regulation of China.
  1. Memorandum of Understanding between the Federal Agency for State Property Management (RF) and the Committee for Control and Management of State Property of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China on strengthening cooperation in state enterprise management.
  1. Comprehensive long-term cooperation program in fast neutron reactors and closing the nuclear fuel cycle between the State Atomic Energy Corporation “Rosatom” and the PRC Atomic Energy Agency.
  1. Memorandum of Cooperation between the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company” and the China Media Corporation.
  1. Agreement on the exchange of information and cooperation between the Federal State Unitary Enterprise “Information Telegraph Agency of Russia (ITAR-TASS)” (RF) and the Information Agency “Xinhua” (PRC).

Outcomes and outlook:

Undoubtedly, Xi Jinping’s state visit to Moscow has become a landmark event in the geopolitical arena. Despite several statements that no special agreements were reached during the visit, playing into the hands of Russia, the sharp reaction of some Western states demonstrated their serious concern caused by the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow, which is reaching a dangerous level.

Previously, Ascolta separately analysed the results of Xi Jinping in Moscow and tried to identify the primary hidden meanings encrypted in a relatively dry final statement. At the same time, some additional effects of the last visit began to become apparent from subsequent statements by both sides.

In general, it can be stated that the alliance between Moscow and Beijing will be aimed at a total reform of the world order, in which both states do not want to put up with the dominance of Washington. Despite several statements and assumptions from Western analysts, Russia and China do not intend to destroy the system that was created after the Second World War: both Xi Jinping and Putin continue to appeal to the United Nations Charter, which rather indicates a desire to get rid of excessive influence the United States on international organisations, rather than on the desire to liquidate the organisations themselves.

Also, attempts by both Beijing and Moscow to play against the United States are becoming more noticeable, using the tools familiar to Washington, shaping in public opinion the image of an unscrupulous or even attacking state hiding behind democratic values. Hence the direct accusations of undermining the Nord Streams attempts to accuse the United States of using biological weapons (in particular COVID-19), the intensification of discussions of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and even the statement about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus as a response to US actions during the Cold War. In fact, Beijing and Moscow demonstrated to the States that they could use similar methods. In case of disagreement with them, they offer to turn to the UN, where they actively form a support group from states unfriendly to Washington to promote their interests.

At the same time, Russia and China say they have no plans to create a military alliance, actively criticising such attempts by the United States and its allies. New formations like AUKUS or QUAD China and Russia plan to resist not through linear methods but by demonstrating complete disagreement with attempts to militarise international relations. In fact, a military alliance between Moscow and Beijing already exists. Moreover, Iran and a number of smaller states ready to support such an entity can be added to it. At the same time, at the official level, the leaders of the two states declare an exceptional desire to create political instruments in international relations – BRICS, the EAEU, Russia-Central Asia, various formats of ties with Africa, and more. Thus, Russia and China are trying to demonstrate to the world community that, in fact, it is the United States and its allies who want war, and those states that have been portrayed as aggressors for many years are crying out for peace.

Even though both Putin and Xi Jinping devoted a lot of time to the Ukrainian issue, it can be assumed that they considered the settlement of the situation in Ukraine only in the context of resolving more global issues. The so-called peace plan of Xi Jinping does not offer concrete steps to resolve the Ukrainian issue; it only calls for negotiations and respect for international law. The negotiations are provided to the collective West, which, according to Moscow and Beijing, should accept their terms and reconsider their positions regarding the world order.

In this case, it is worth noting the high risks for the Western democratic system, which, of course, are indicated by Western politicians, although they are not demonstrated to the public.

It can be assumed that the projected new Cold War is already gaining significant momentum and will remain “cold” only as long as official propaganda controls public opinion. Otherwise, the world risks facing an actual military conflict that will go down in history as World War Three.

2. Vladimir Putin’s interview for “Russia 1” 

On Saturday, March 25, another interview with Vladimir Putin was published on the Rossiya 1 channel. In it, he actually summed up the negotiations with his Chinese counterpart and also made a number of additional statements. Apparently, they were also agreed upon during the negotiations and are part of the overall global strategy.

Key theses: 

  • “Based on our data, the US produces about 14,000-15,000 shells monthly. The Armed Forces of Ukraine use up to 5,000 shells per day. Next year [the United States] plans to carry 42 thousand shells in 2025 – 75 thousand. Over the same period of time, Russian industry will produce three times more shells.”
  • “Now I don’t want to assess the rationality of decisions at different levels of military command, but now the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are forced to introduce certain limits [on the use of projectiles].”
  • “You mentioned other types of equipment, tanks. The arsonists plan to send 420 tanks [to Ukraine]. We will produce new and modernise over 1600 existing units during this time. Therefore, the total number of Russian tanks will exceed three times the number of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. I’m not talking about aviation anymore.”
  • “We build our economy in such a way that we do not allow excessive militarisation. We have all our plans in civil engineering, health care, education, and infrastructure development, we are not cutting anything, and they will have to cut.”
  • “Russia has something to say [to the possible supply of depleted uranium shells by the UK to Ukraine]. We have hundreds of thousands of these [depleted uranium] projectiles, but we don’t use them yet.”
  • “As for our negotiations with Lukashenko, even outside the context of these events, Alexander Lukashenko has long questioned deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. First, the US has been doing this for decades. They placed it in six states of Europe. And we agreed [with Lukashenka] that we would do the same. On July 1, we are finishing the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.”
  • “We would use the dollar. They [USA] do not give us. They saw the branch on which they sat.
  • “Oil-producing countries in the Middle East also want to settle in yuan.”
  • “Sitting by the fireplace and drinking tea, we [with Xi Jinping] talked about everything slowly. We talked about the world situation and different aspects. The PRC President paid a lot of attention to revealing the positive beginnings of the Chinese peace plan for resolving the situation in Ukraine.”
  • “Here are the different approaches: the collective West and NATO members on the one hand with their aggressive rhetoric and the supply of weapons and China’s proposals with a peace plan on the other hand.”
  • “I must say that the President of the People’s Republic of China is a very interesting interlocutor; he is deeply immersed in all world affairs and the economy and problems of his country and ours.”
  • “An American journalist conducted such an investigation [about the explosion at Nord Stream] and concluded that US intelligence agencies organised this explosion. I fully agree with these conclusions.”

Outcomes and outlook:

As expected, in his interview for Russia 1, Vladimir Putin voiced several important theses that will be most actively promoted in the public space soon. Moreover, despite the active reaction of the West regarding the issue of deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, it is worth noting that Putin’s direct accusation against the United States of undermining the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines is no less important.

In this case, the issue of deploying tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus has been predicted by many analysts and, accordingly, by the intelligence structures of several countries, for a long time. This step was perceived as inevitable but, apparently, did not carry a direct threat to Europe. Beijing and Moscow have publicly stated that they categorically oppose nuclear weapons, which can be seen as new security guarantees between the two states, albeit only in words).

At the same time, the direct accusation of the United States of undermining the gas pipeline demonstrates Putin’s readiness to further develop this topic. But, of course, few people will believe the words of the aggressor state accusing the United States of an act of international terrorism. Still, suppose China and a few other countries oriented towards a new anti-Western “axis” support Putin’s position (which, apparently, can happen soon). In that case, getting a real precedent that the collective West will have to reckon with is possible.

We are dealing with an attempt by Russia (or Putin personally) to play against the United States using their methods. Shortly, we should expect the publication of new evidence or the sounding of recent accusations against the United States. Such charges will not be supported by concrete evidence (Putin made it clear that he does not have tangible proof since one of the NATO countries has already cleared all the evidence). Still, in this case, the main thing is not the result but the process. Putin forced the US to react and even make excuses by proclaiming his innocence. Publications in the Western media about the involvement of Ukrainian partisans and oligarchs in blowing up gas pipelines look much more ridiculous than the statements of the Russian side.

Suppose Russia’s position continues to advance action in this direction. In that case, a clear stereotype may form in society, according to which the United States will act as an aggressor and initiator of an act of international terrorism. Moreover, without any evidence or facts.

Also, in his interview, Putin tried to send a clear message to Europe: your attempts to increase the production of shells will not help since the Russian economy is already on a war footing and withstands all your sanctions. This message, most likely, is far from an attempt to compare the production potential and the number of tanks or aircraft. It is addressed not to Western politicians or strategists but to ordinary Europeans, who are increasingly beginning to feel economic crises and are increasingly thinking about their own well-being. The main goal of this message is to promote the Chinese peace plan, which carries the most important message for a simple European man in the street – the possibility of negotiations. Thus, there is a banal substitution of concepts, which consists of an attempt to put all factors out of the frame, leaving only the need for negotiations on any conditions. We are talking about a new “Trojan horse” for Europe: it doesn’t matter who started the war, and it doesn’t matter what the Ukrainians died for; the only important thing is that Moscow and Beijing offer a peaceful process to resolve the situation.

And despite the very sober position of the Europeans, who do not want to perceive Putin as a peacemaker, the Russian president, in his interview, forms another message addressed directly to French President Macron. Asked about mass protests in France over pension reform, Putin notes that he also carried out a similar reform, but it did not provoke a similar public reaction. Explaining certain aspects of the reform, he apparently, makes it clear to Macron that he is ready to help him with domestic political problems in exchange for support in “peaceful” initiatives regarding Ukraine. The only question is how actively one can trace the Russian trace in French mass actions.

3. Report of the Russian Government 

On Thursday, March 23, the Government’s report for 2022 was held in the State Duma of the Russian Federation. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin spoke about the results of work in 2022 and also answered questions from deputies of all factions. In addition, the report was attended by regional parliaments, business communities and trade unions. The report of the Government of the Russian Federation lasted more than four hours.

Key theses:

  • “We have put the economy back on a growth trajectory. Now even some international organisations are predicting positive dynamics for us by the end of 2023 and reaching GDP growth rates higher than those of developed countries in 2024.”
  • “Thanks to the leadership of the Central Bank, the work of credit institutions, the currency and stock markets were normalised, Russia avoided external blocking of trade operations within the country. Payment for goods, services, and transfers are carried out as before. All bank cards in Russia that were used work. We also reduced inflationary pressure and maintained the banking sector’s stability.”
  • “Thanks to the support of the authorities, Russian business has rebuilt its commodity and logistics chains and adapted to new conditions. In 2022 alone, 83 companies registered in “Russian offshores”, three times more than in the previous year.”
  • “We all want to see our country strong and modern, which means that citizens should always be able to receive high-quality treatment and undergo examination without waiting for an appointment for a long time.”
  • “Speaking of higher education, Mikhail Mishustin noted that 25 world-class university campuses will become centres of attraction for talented youth.”
  • “The level of food security in Russia is one of the most reliable in the world”.
  • “Russia’s strength lies in its regions. Therefore, their development is another priority for us.”
  • “To meet the multiply increased needs, organisations of the military-industrial complex are rapidly implementing investment projects”.
  • “External pressure on Russia will not ease. Nevertheless, we expect the adaptation period to end as early as 2024. After that, Russia will embark on the path of long-term progressive development.”

Outcomes and outlook:

It should be noted that the Government’s report is a regular event in Russia and does not carry a particular burden for the general public. At the same time, in 2023, Mikhail Mishustin’s speech to the State Duma of the Russian Federation’s deputies contained several essential aspects that are worth paying attention to. Firstly, one of Mishustin’s main tasks was another attempt to legalise the thesis that Western sanctions do not work and that the Russian economy is recovering or developing. Furthermore, compliments addressed to the liberal wing by the Head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, and her team were very indicative. Finally, of course, it is worth agreeing that the sharp decline in the Russian economy, as many Western analysts expected, did not happen. Still, at the same time, the sanctions are more protracted and will be able to demonstrate more serious consequences in a few years. Russian economists often mention this factor, but the Government prefers to remain silent about such prospects.

Secondly, the report of the Government of the Russian Federation was built considering the recently launched presidential election campaign, in which the Kremlin is actively trying to play a card under the code name “everything for the people.” That is why the report devotes so much time to stories about improving the social sphere, medicine and education. Also, special attention is paid to the development of regions, including the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Thus, once again, one can trace the main accents of Putin’s election campaign.

Thirdly, Mishustin had the goal of finally legalising the transition of the Russian economy to a military footing, which, although carefully hidden at the government level, is increasingly being discussed by people in business and even politicians. Moreover, in his interview with Russia-1, Putin admitted such a transition, although he tried to hide its natural level.

In general, it can be noted that the Mishustin government demonstrates a quite satisfactory level of anti-crisis management, which is completely satisfied in the Kremlin. Shortly, one can hardly expect the resignation of Mishustin himself, which has been often discussed in Telegram channels recently. Moreover, his recent meeting with Xi Jinping and an invitation to Beijing may indicate strengthening positions in the Russian political system. Finally, the Government report demonstrated that Mishustin also copes professionally with introducing the necessary theses.

4. Telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan 

On Saturday, March 25, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. According to the official statement, topical issues of the Russian-Turkish partnership in various fields were discussed during the conversation. Satisfaction was expressed with the positive dynamics of trade and economic ties, the successful implementation of joint strategic projects in the energy sector, including gas supplies and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey. It is also noted that the Turkish leader positively assessed Russia’s agreement to extend the Istanbul agreements for 60 days regarding the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports and unblocking the export of Russian food and fertilisers. At the same time, an understanding was expressed of the Russian side’s principled intention to fully implement the second part of the mentioned “package” agreements – to remove barriers to agricultural products from Russia.

Outcomes and outlook:

It is noteworthy that, according to the Turkish side, the telephone conversation was about steps to strengthen Turkish-Russian relations and the latest developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war. At the same time, it is noted that President Erdogan thanked President Putin for his positive position regarding the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Still, there is no mention of the timing of the deal’s extension.

Earlier, Ascolta repeatedly analysed Turkish-Russian relations, noting several essential factors both for Russia, which sees Turkey and Erdogan personally as a situational ally in relations with the West and for Turkey, which sees Russia as an important ally in regional issues, as well as in upholding own positions concerning the West. On the eve of the presidential elections in Turkey, Erdogan is forced to demonstrate greater dependence on Russia. Still, at the same time, he has enough leverage to ensure that such dependence remains only situational.

At the same time, it is important to note that almost immediately after the telephone conversation between the leaders of Turkey and Russia, Erdogan’s representative Ibrahim Kalin, on the air of the Turkish NTV channel, stated the need to “thoroughly study” China’s peace plan for Ukraine. He says Turkey is ready to support the Chinese proposals if they “create a foundation for negotiations.” He added that “the West miscalculated the situation” and “sanctions against Russia only push it towards closer ties with China.”

Of course, these statements should not be taken as the official position of Turkey, but it should be assumed that they were sanctioned personally by Erdogan. Turkey’s attempt to demonstrate its loyalty to the emerging anti-Western alliance led by Russia and China becomes more noticeable in this case. It is important to note that Turkey will most likely continue to try to balance West and East, skillfully using its geographical position. At the same time, the main risks will lie in its support for Ukraine and a change in the mediating position towards the possible support of the so-called peace plan of Xi Jinping.

The telephone conversation between Putin and Erdogan clearly did not become a turning point in relations between the two states. Instead, it was carried out to compare watches and synchronise some positions at the regional level.

At the same time, according to Ascolta, another essential point in the conversation between the leaders of the two states could be the preparation for Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkey, which may occur soon. If such plans are implemented, Putin will provide serious support to Erdogan in the upcoming elections, which will undoubtedly entail retaliatory actions from Turkey as well (most likely, we can talk about the settlement of several issues related to Russian interests in the “grain deal”).

Also, Putin’s visit to Turkey will demonstrate that the Russian leader is not afraid of the decision of the International Criminal Court or other similar actions of international organisations. It is important to note that Turkey is a state that has not signed or acceded to the Rome Statute, but at the same time, it is a member of NATO and is trying to maintain a balance in relations between the West and the East. Therefore, Putin’s invitation will definitely be considered by the West as a violation by Turkey and Erdogan personally of democratic norms and principles since, in the understanding of the West, a meeting with Putin is regarded as a meeting with an international criminal.

5. Statement by Dmitry Medvedev

On Thursday, March 23, an interview was published with Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, in which he answered many questions from journalists and users of the Russian social network VK.com. Medvedev, in his usual manner, criticised the West, urged to increase the size of the army, inflict maximum damage on unfriendly countries, and made several other harsh statements.

Key statements:

  • “In my opinion, in certain situations, it is pointless to negotiate. Instead, it is necessary to ignore, and in some cases make decisions like the one adopted on February 24 last year.”
  • “Moreover, Ukraine is generally a part of Russia; let’s be honest, it is a part of Russia. But due to geopolitical reasons and the history of what happened, we put up with the fact that we have lived in different apartments for a long time.
  • “As you know, a kind word and a gun bring more results than just a kind word.”
  • “The International Criminal Court itself is a kind of legal nonentity, an impotent international legal entity that has not done anything significant since its inception”.
  • “Unfortunately, lately, finishing the conversation about leaders, there has been a catastrophic decline in the competence and elementary literacy of the leaders of the European Union. I will not name individual names; you know them.
  • “Yes, China is much larger than us in terms of population and economy. But we have our capabilities, including, say, such as our permanent membership in the Security Council (together with China too) or nuclear potential, the size of our country, colossal reserves of development sources, and so on. That is, each country complements the other here. We just need to conclude the lessons of history. We also had different periods [of relations] with China, but they have been on the ascending line in recent years, and I have been watching them for almost 25 years. Every year brings something new and different.”
  • “The United States of America is our enemy. But they have a consistent position. If possible, they are trying to cause maximum harm to us, to divide the country altogether and put Europe on their needle as hard as possible so they do not flutter. Otherwise, leaders periodically come to power and begin to be clever – either they will leave NATO or suspend their membership, or they will start doing something else. Now here’s how they would do it. Their position is quite clear to me from the point of view of logic. What I do not understand is the position of the European leaders who are not capable of making decisions in favour of the Europeans. All their decisions are either in favour of individual political groups competing with each other or in favour of the Americans. That is, they are not only a dependent subject of international law, they simply became a donor of the United States of America at the expense of their taxpayers.”
  • “It is clear that the same T-90M tank, Proryv, is our newest tank. But, in my opinion, this is now the best tank in the world. In the world! It is certainly better than the Leopard, the Challenger, and the Abrams, including its tactical and technical data, even in terms of such a component as mass. In addition, it’s agile, fast, and really works well.”
  • “We need to make a full-fledged line of shock drones, that is, full-fledged large aircraft. So there is still something to do here, although we also have several samples already going into production; I’m sure that putting them on the wing is a matter of the coming months.”
  • “The Russian Federation is not at war with Ukraine, not with the Ukrainian semi-Nazi or Nazi regime – our country is at war with 3.6 million NATO troops. They participate, of course, in such a hybrid conflict, and they, in fact, no longer hide it. And with a population of 800 million people, which supplies equipment, weapons and money to the Kyiv regime. They are also engaged in training; they are about to come to start unfolding something, and so on.
  • “Inflation will be in the region of 6% by March, and after some time – in the region of 4%. Feel the difference: in Europe, it is higher in most countries. They fired up this campaign, they started to fight us, and now in some countries, this inflation is 15-20%. Well, that’s what they need. Therefore, it is a question of the art of management.”
  • “I don’t know what will happen next, but it is obvious that the era of regional agreements such as BRICS, SCO, and bilateral relations is coming. In some ways, this may even seem like a step backwards, but such a step back is better than an attempt to portray unanimity under the auspices of the UN or some other body. So international institutions will change.”
  • “To be completely frank, I believe that the preconditions for the collapse of the United States of America are much higher. Especially in light of what’s going on right now.”
  • “Has the threat of nuclear conflict passed? No, it hasn’t passed. She has grown. Every day of deliveries of foreign weapons to Ukraine ultimately brings this same nuclear apocalypse closer. This does not mean it will occur, and I have already spoken about this. But the horsemen of the Apocalypse are already on their way and continue on their way; you can be sure.
  • “Our army needs to get bigger. And its population parameters have been announced – it is at least 1.5 million people.”
  • “If they left us all sorts of Netflix and others, then we will download all this and use it for free. And I would scatter all this over the Net to cause them maximum damage. Maximum damage to make them bankrupt!

Outcomes and outlook:

It is worth noting that Medvedev’s statements have become less radical and more detailed. He seemed to be trying to convey his position to a broader audience while not using his usual phrases for this, filled with fatalism and maximalism.

As before, his statements are aimed directly at the internal consumer and do not mean anything to external observers. In fact, Medvedev’s interview explains Russia’s new strategy for the Russians themselves. In particular, we are talking about the most radical part of the electorate, which during the war, got used to focusing on Medvedev’s harsh statements.

It is noteworthy that this interview came out almost immediately after the end of Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow. The main topics of the interview were structured in such a way as to accommodate all the necessary “changes” in Russia’s foreign policy strategy.

Medvedev focuses his attention on several points. First, he once again clarifies that Russia does not consider Ukraine a subject state. He applauds history, calling Ukraine part of Russia, and also claims the futility of negotiations in some situations, recalling an attempted negotiation with NATO in early 2022. Apparently, in the eyes of the Russian public, in the near future, they will try to form a stereotype according to which the West and Ukraine are asking for negotiations and not Russia. This scenario fits into the more global actions of the Russian Federation in an attempt to return to negotiations on strategic stability.

Secondly, Medvedev is once again trying to explain the failures of the Russian army by saying that it is not at war with Ukraine but with the entire NATO bloc, which, according to Medvedev, has admitted its direct participation in the conflict. It is worth noting that this thesis has recently become much more active and will be more prominent in the Russian information space. Therefore, we should expect that soon, Russia will try to legalise this thesis in the international arena, apparently with the support of China. If this strategy is successfully implemented, Russia will not only get an excuse for its failures in military operations. Still, it will also be able to build a common anti-Western position that demonstrates the aggressiveness of NATO itself, which was created as a defensive alliance.

Thirdly, Medvedev once again demonstrated Russia’s common position about international law, which ended the issue of the decision of the International Criminal Court (for the Russian consumer). Moreover, Medvedev openly supported the idea of piracy and said it was an excellent tool to fight Western companies that could go bankrupt. In this situation, it is essential to note that this message was addressed not only to domestic consumption but also to the piracy movement, which is gaining momentum in the West and is already represented in the parliaments of several European countries. Russia is increasingly trying to flirt not only with the right but also with populists. This trend raises serious concerns and requires additional monitoring.

Fourth, like Mikhail Mishustin, Medvedev tried once again to legalise the transition of the Russian economy to a military footing, which was officially refuted by the authorities. In fact, we are seeing how the thesis “our economy is strong in this form” is being implemented, which implies an increase in the share of the military-industrial complex in economic growth. The Kremlin will continue to declare that there are no plans to switch to a military footing while these processes, like covert mobilisation, have long been implemented at all levels. 

6. Viktor Medvedchuk’s article in Western media 

After a series of articles and interviews in the Russian media, Viktor Medvedchuk decided to reach a new level and, with the help of Western media resources, tried to convey his thesis to the Europeans. In several Western publications, his article was published under the title “US Aggression against Europe.” In it, Medvedchuk described how the States “occupied” Europe and allegedly led it to collapse. According to Medvedchuk, US relations with European countries as allies after the Cold War were costly, and therefore a new format was needed. The bombing of Yugoslavia became the starting point for transforming these relations. It showed that Washington could launch military aggression against any country at any moment, bypassing international law if necessary.

Key theses:

  • Contrary to paragraphs “b” and “c” of Article I of the Declaration on the Inadmissibility of Intervention and Interference in the Internal Affairs of States, adopted by the UN General Assembly in its resolution 36/103 of December 9, 1981, the United States, through the supranational bodies of the European Union, began to violate the sovereign right to the sovereignty of the European Union.
  • As a result of World War II, the US occupied Western Europe, the dollar replaced the pound sterling as the world’s currency, the British and French empires collapsed, and the US became the world’s superpower.
  • In 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine. And in 2021, Joe Biden was elected President of the United States. In addition, the “inspirer” of the Ukrainian coup, Victoria Nuland, returned to the US State Department.
  • According to Article 1 of the Definition of Aggression, adopted by Resolution 3314 (XXIX UN General Assembly) of December 14 1974, aggression is “the use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations United Nations as specified in this definition.” Thus, using US military force to blow up three of the four Nord Stream gas pipelines is an act of aggression against the European Union and Russia.
  • In the current conflict in Ukraine, the US and UK have the following main objectives:
  1. Rupture of economic ties between Europe, Russia and China, mainly in the export of cheap energy resources and, as a result, the weakening of the European economy, the deprivation of its industries that compete with the United States, the transfer of high-tech industries to the United States.
  1. Weakening of the European financial system, depriving the euro of its haven status. The hostilities in Europe and the threat of their spread to NATO countries and the European Union are forcing investors to leave Europe.
  1. The weakening of the military industry. Part of the military industry of Europe as a competitor to the United States has disappeared, for example, in the development and production of 5th-generation fighters.
  1. Drawing European countries into hostilities. In the first stage, this could be Poland and the Baltic countries (as in the case of arms supplies), and then Germany and other countries will “join”.

As a result, European countries will be deindustrialised and destroyed, as is happening today.

Outcomes and outlook:

As before, Ascolta considers the activation of Viktor Medvedchuk as a factor in creating the image of a “normal Ukrainian” for the average Russian citizen. At the same time, it is worth noting that this article is already the second in recent times. It is posted not in the Russian media but in the Western ones and is designed for a completely different audience.

In this situation, several important factors should be noted. Firstly, activating Viktor Medvedchuk’s work for the Western audience may be partly associated with an attempt to influence Ukrainian migrants living in the European Union. According to official UN data, about 7 million such people are currently. Therefore, it is essential to pay attention to the fact that recently Ukrainian migrants have become a sphere of increased interest in Russian structures in Europe, which are trying to influence their consciousness and form an alternative point of view regarding Russia and its aggression against Ukraine. Medvedchuk’s article may also be part of this process.

Secondly, the article is built on a clear appeal to international law, particularly the UN Charter and the facts of its violation by the United States. Finally, Medvedchuk highlights the lucrative facts of US misconduct by drawing parallels with Russia’s actions. This approach is well received by the audience and sows doubt about the perception of objective reality, which is what the author is trying to achieve.

Thirdly, Medvedchuk’s activity is demonstrated by Russia as the position of a Ukrainian regarding the West and its system of international relations. This is a continuation of the strategy of forming the image of a “correct Ukrainian” in the eyes of the Russian audience, which will continue to introduce such a reality, passing it off as objective.

Generally, the absence of any official reaction to Medvedchuk’s statements can be considered the best response to his attempts to demonstrate his own position.

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“Ascolta” is an independent information and analytical centre specialising in information collection, processing and systematisation. The centre’s area of interest is political, economic, as well as social and humanitarian processes in the world, mainly in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. The key direction of our activity is studying Russia’s internal and external political environment and its influence on Europe, Africa and Latin America.

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